Hart-Scott-Rodino Merger Filing Enforcement Decision Analysis
Click on open cells to input parameters into javascript program, then obtain estimates of Fight, Fold and Settle probabilities by clicking on calculate statements.
This model uses publically released coefficient estimates contained in Coate, "Fight, Fold or Settle?: An Update on Resolving Merger Challenges at the FTC" 1998.
This paper updates the results found in "Fight, Fold or Settle?: Modeling the Reaction to FTC Merger Challenges," (with Andrew Kleit and Rene Bustamante), Economic Inquiry, 33(4), October 1995, 537-551.
As with all econometric models, using data outside the historical sample is risky. As the FTC has reviewed a wide assortment of HSR transactions, the major danger involves the time index. A user who believes the relevant time trends towards settlement have stopped is invited to input any month, along with a year of 1995 or 1996.