Federal Court Merger Decision Analysis
Click on open cells to input parameters into javascript program, then obtain estimates of the probability of court injunction by clicking on calculate statement. (Click on the variable description for more details on the variable.)
A number of merger challenges fail due to the plaintiff's inability to substantiate a relevant market likely to suffer an anticompetitive effect. Thus (assuming statistical independence) the probability of an injunction is the product of the probability the plaintiff establishes a market and the probability of success in this model. Therefore, the result given above is an upper bound on the probability of an injunction.