How accurate are casualty statistics?

The wonderful thing about computers is that you can get them do all sorts of nifty calculations even if you don't know what, exactly, they are calculating. Here, for example, are the Standard Deviations of my collection of experts.

Event Year Began Mean Estimated Death Toll (millions) Standard Deviation Confidence Level
Congo Free State 1885 7.9 88% guess
Brazilian Indians 1900 .6 54% uncertain
Mexican Revolution 1910 1.0 61% guess
WW1: Civilians 1914 8.5 33% debatable
WW1: Military 1914 9.0 14% wide agreement
Armenian Massacres 1915 1.0 30% debatable
Russian Civil War 1917 7.7 56% uncertain
WW1: USA 1917 .05 6% wide agreement
Stalin: Total 1923 30.9 47% uncertain
Hitler: Murders 1933 14.7 27% debatable
Holocaust 1937 5.4 9% wide agreement
Nanjing Massacre 1937 .3 50% uncertain
WW2: China civ. 1937 6.9 43% uncertain
WW2: China mil. 1937 2.3 66% guess
WW2: Japan mil. 1937 1.5 18% wide agreement
WW2: France mil. 1939 .2 18% wide agreement
WW2: German civ. 1939 1.9 63% guess
WW2: German mil. 1939 3.7 16% wide agreement
WW2: Poland total 1939 5.9 10% wide agreement
WW2: UK mil. 1939 .4 16% wide agreement
WW2: Japan civ. 1941 .4 38% debatable
WW2: USA 1941 .4 0% wide agreement
WW2: USSR civ. 1941 8.3 41% uncertain
WW2: USSR mil. 1941 10.0 29% debatable
WW2: Yugoslavia total 1941 1.5 14% wide agreement
Chinese Civil War 1945 2.3 92% guess
Fr. Indochina War: France 1945 .09 1% wide agreement
Fr. Indochina War: Total 1945 .6 55% uncertain
Indo-Pakistani Partition 1947 .6 55% uncertain
Mao: Purges 1949 5.1 137% guess
Mao: Total 1949 42.2 58% uncertain
Korean War: China 1950 .5 61% guess
Korean War: Civilians 1950 1.6 35% debatable
Korean War: NKor. mil. 1950 .3 55% uncertain
Korean War: SKor. mil. 1950 .2 63% guess
Korean War: Total 1950 2.9 13% wide agreement
Mao: Great Leap Forward 1959 25.6 44% uncertain
Mao: Cultural Revolution 1965 1.1 129% guess
Vietnam War: NVN + VC 1965 .8 22% debatable
Vietnam War: SVN civ. 1965 .7 77% guess
Vietnam War: SVN mil. 1965 .2 8% wide agreement
Vietnam War: Total 1965 1.8 22% debatable
Vietnam War: USA 1965 .06 0% wide agreement
Bengali Massacres 1971 1.5 61% guess
Cambodia: Khmer Rouge 1975 1.6 34% debatable
Afghanistan 1979 1.4 26% debatable
Iran-Iraq War 1980 .8 34% debatable
Gulf War 1991 .08 84% guess


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Last updated January 2002

Copyright © 2002 Matthew White