By J. Adams
June 19th, 1997
***KOREA ALERT***
J. Adams
June 19th, 1997
The *Spirit Of Truth* WWW Page
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/
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FROM REUTERS:
"N.Korea Issues Stern Warning to U.S., S.Korea"
Wednesday, June 18, 1997
"At this moment when dark clouds of war are rushing
toward our motherland and fighting is about to break out,
our revolutionary armed forces cannot remain an onlooker
to the situation," the state-run Korean Central News
Agency (KCNA) quoted the military spokesman as saying.
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EXCERPT FROM:
U.S. News & World Report
June 20, 1994
"The most dangerous place on earth"
By Joseph L. Galloway; Bruce B. Auster
"Weather factors. In summer, late June or early July would
be favored because monsoon rains shroud Korea's mountains in
clouds and fog and impede the vastly superior American and
South Korean air forces. In winter, the best month to head
south would be January, when the rivers and rice paddies are
frozen solid and tanks and tracked vehicles can maneuver off
the roads south and north of the Imjin and Han rivers,
respectively."
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FROM: http://www.kimsoft.com/korea/eyewit3a.htm
May 15, 1950 - US CIA reports: "N Korea suffers from a
shortage of skilled administrative personnel and from
weaknesses in its economy and its official Party
organizations. There is widespread, although passive, popular
discontent with the Communist government..."
May 30, 1950 - US CIA reports: "N Korean Army has 66,000 men
including 16,000 ex-Chinese troops, supplemented by 20,500
border guards, 1,500 airmen and 5,100 seamen plus 60,000-
70,000 Koreans in Chinese Red Army in reserve. Equipment
include 65 T-34 tanks, 35 Yak-9 fighters and negligible navy."
US CIA reports: "Trained and equipped units of the Communist
'People's Army' are being deployed southward in the area of
the 38th Parallel.". CIA estimates are off by as much as 150%
on the low side. This error enhances the US confidence that
the S Korean Army can repel any invasion from North.
ON JUNE 25TH, 1950, NORTH KOREA SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED
A SURPRISE INVASION OF SOUTH KOREA, WHEN THE
KOREAN MONSOONAL RAIN SEASON BEGAN.
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The writing is and has been on the wall, but the West, deluded by
the insanity of greed, is dangerously illiterate. "Blinded by greed",
"decadent beyond sensibility", "blissfully arrogant and ignorant",
"selfishly irresponsible", "collectively incompetent", "grossly
reckless", etc. are terms that will, in retrospect, be used to
describe the behavior of our governments and our peoples as the third
world war approached. Yet, for now, as we enter into the abyss of
worldwide mass destruction, the voices of reason and realism will be
shunned, disgraced, insulted, if not outright locked-up, for telling
the truth to a society that gleefully believed the lies and accepted
the false peace of the Enemy and thereby brought about self-
destruction.
As the DJIA reaches new, completely insane heights (the average
closed today at 7777), the signs that war is soon going to erupt on,
at the least, the Korean Peninsula, are overwhelming. Yet, collective
expectations in the West are as irrationally optimistic as ever.
Yet, for those who have listened, there is little doubt that any
war will not be limited to Korea. All of East Asia, the Middle East,
and the whole of the world is ready to explode. Why? The insanity of
man's selfish, ungodly nature.
It is no coincidence that Alfred Nobel, the father of the Nobel
Peace Prize, was the inventor of dynamite and the high explosives that
go into all modern-day conventional weaponry. (He decided to offer the
award after a French newspaper prematurely printed his obituary and
referred to him as the "Merchant of Death" for making a fortune off of
the development of weapons of war.) Man does not comprehend the true
path to love and peace. His heart is hell-bent on a path to self-
destruction by the irrationality of selfishness.
I'm not going to elaborate on the articles below, for I've grown
sick and tired of my futile efforts to save our suicidal species from
it's course toward self-destruction. The inevitable appears as near
as ever and I feel like the last sane person in our mad, mad world. So
be it....I guess I just don't care anymore...
You might start here:
http://www.tv-u.com/china.html
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"North Korea Steps up War of Words on South"
Thursday, June 19th, 1997
TOKYO (Reuter) - North Korea stepped up its war of words against South
Korea on Thursday, saying Seoul's recent amphibious war games were a
"kind of declaration of war."
"This war exercise by the puppets (South Korea) is clearly a kind of
declaration of war and can never be tolerated," said the Rodong
Shinmun, mouthpiece of North Korea's ruling party.
The newspaper commentary, carried on state-run Radio Pyongyang and
monitored by Japan's Radiopress news agency, accused Seoul of
dangerous provocation and said South Korea's amphibious war games were
clearly directed against North Korea.
Thursday's commentary followed a warning from North Korea's 1.1-
million strong military on Wednesday that the armed forces were ready
for a "final battle" with the United States and South Korea.
In a rare statement, a North Korean military spokesman said the recent
South Korean amphibious exercises on islands near the North, as well
as other U.S. exercises, showed that Seoul and Washington were set to
strike while the famine-stricken North was weak.
Thursday's commentary lambasted South Korea once again over the
exercises.
"In the last decade or so, South Korea has camouflaged invasion
exercises as 'defensive maneuvers'," it said.
"But this time, the (South Korean President) Kim Young-sam group
openly declared that this was a war exercise to land on the beaches of
our republic (North Korea)."
The Rodong Shinmun added: "If the puppets and their American
imperialist masters provoke an aggressive war, our people and the
People's Army will reply with a hundred-fold, thousand-fold defeat
against them."
Following Wednesday's statement from the North Korean military, the
South Korean Defense Ministry denied stepping up military exercises.
Seoul officials instead accused North Korea of trying to justify its
huge military spending by whipping up war threats.
North Korea-watchers in Japan and South Korea have said Pyongyang's
tough words were part of a long-term brinkmanship strategy aimed at
securing closer ties with the United States and raising the North's
international profile at the expense of rival South Korea.
In New York, North Korean delegates have been holding preliminary
negotiations at the working level with their counterparts from South
Korea and the United States in the run-up to four-party peace talks
which would also include China.
The proposed peace talks aim to achieve a permanent treaty to replace
the fraying armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.
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"N.Korea Issues Stern Warning to U.S., S.Korea"
Wednesday, June 18, 1997
TOKYO (Reuter) - North Korea Wednesday warned it was ready for a
"final battle" with the United States and South Korea, which it
accused of preparing an attack while it was weakened by a dire food
shortage.
The threat, issued in a rare public statement by a spokesman for the
communist nation's powerful military, used language that was strong
even by the strident standards of North Korea's daily anti-South
propaganda, analysts said.
"At this moment when dark clouds of war are rushing toward our
motherland and fighting is about to break out, our revolutionary armed
forces cannot remain an onlooker to the situation," the state-run
Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) quoted the military spokesman as
saying.
"If the enemies try to test our will and military strength despite our
repeated warnings, our people's army will mobilize all potentials
consolidated for scores of years and give vent to our people's pent-up
grudges and wrath," said the spokesman.
The spokesman said recent South Korean military amphibious landing
exercises on islands near the North, and other U.S. exercises showed
that Seoul and Washington were set to strike while the North was weak.
"The enemies are thought to believe it is high time they made a
forestalling attack since (North Korea) is temporarily suffering from
repeated natural disasters and numerous soldiers of its armed forces
are engaged in farming," the spokesman was quoted as saying by KCNA in
a report monitored in Tokyo.
Later on Wednesday, the South Korean military denied stepping up
military exercises and Seoul officials accused North Korea of trying
to justify its huge military spendings by whipping up war threats.
"The North also wants to divert public attention from its severe food
shortage. The Stalinist regime needs a certain level of war threats to
maintain political stability," a unification ministry official in
Seoul told Reuters.
North Korea watchers said the warning signaled Pyongyang's nervousness
during the run-up to the third anniversary of the death of national
founder Kim Il-sung on July 8.
Passage of the the anniversary is seen as clearing the way for his
son, Kim Jong-il, to formally take over power in the world's only
remaining Stalinist state later this year.
"North Korea, racked with tension ahead of the July 8 anniversary, has
warned South Korea and the United States not to attack while national
strength is at a low ebb," said Noriyuki Suzuki, a North Korea expert
at Radiopress news agency.
"The statement may also be a diplomatic tactic in advance of four-way
peace talks," he told Reuters.
Washington and Seoul are awaiting Pyongyang's response to their April
1996 call for four-nation talks, also involving China, aimed at
working out a peace settlement to replace the armistice that ended the
1950-53 Korean War.
In a meeting in New York in April, famine-threatened North Korea
agreed in principle to join four-nation peace talks but made its
participation conditional on large-scale food aid and an easing of
U.S. trade sanctions.
North Korean official media have in recent days lashed out at
Washington's decision to sell South Korea "Stinger" anti-aircraft
missiles and launchers and attacked a Seoul official who said
Pyongyang should cut its massive military budget to buy food for its
starving population.
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BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
June 19, 1997, Thursday
"North's armed forces ministry issues statement on threat of war"
Source: Central Broadcasting Station, Pyongyang
in Korean 2110 gmt 17 Jun 97
The North Korean Ministry of the People's Armed Forces has said
South Korea and the USA have now reached a state of preparedness for a
pre-emptive strike against North Korea and the prospects for dialogue
are dim. In a press statement, referring to recent joint landing
exercises by the two "enemies" , the ministry says: "We can no longer
overlook the fact that this exercise is a landing exercise aimed at
attack, not at defence... The landing exercise by the enemies is
clearly part of an aggressive and offensive military exercise aimed at
attacking us." The statement says South Korea and the USA seem to feel
that with a great many of North Korea's forces mobilized in rural
areas helping with farming work this is the most favourable time for a
pre-emptive strike. Despite the fact that the two sides " babble"
about four-way talks for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula,
"our revolutionary forces cannot have expectations for dialogue, and
can by no means be onlookers of the prevailing situation" . The
statement concludes that if "the trigger of aggression is pulled, the
trigger of counterattack will also be pulled" . The following is the
announcer-read text of the press statement, issued on 18th June by a
spokesman of the Ministry of the People's Armed Forces, broadcast by
North Korean radio:
Regarding the enemies'very dangerous attempt to carry out a pre-
emptive strike Korean: sonje konggyok hagiwihan choktului
wihomchonmanhan kidoâ against our republic, and the fact that they are
rapidly switching over to the stage of complete actual warfare
wanjonhan siljondangyeeroâ, a spokesman of the Ministry of the
People's Armed Forces has issued the following press statement
tamhwaâ. Press statement by a spokesman of the Ministry of the
People's Armed Forces:
A very dangerous attempt by the enemies to carry out a pre-emptive
strike against our republic has rapidly changed from the stage of
creating an atmosphere to a complete state of actual warfare punwigi
chosong tangyerobuto wanjonhan siljondangyeeroâ.
On 17th June, the South Korean puppet navy and the USâ Marine Corps
carried out a joint landing exercise in the East Sea Sea of Japanâ of
Korea, mobilizing various combat vessels and large-scale forces, and
held a so-called test operation of its unified combat efficiency.
Prior to this, on 14th June units of the puppet Marine Corps used
the rubber boat IBS komu botu ibiesâ and carried out in a frenzied
manner an actual surprise landing exercise, calculating the distance
from Paengnyong Island, situated in the West Sea Yellow Seaâ of Korea,
to our side's coast.
The enemies are currently openly babbling that, regardless of the
time and place, such exercises are aimed at enhancing the capability
of carrying out landing exercises to land on the enemy's coast. The
enemies are even threatening and blackmailing us by saying they will
retaliate against us, taking countermeasures by spreading rumours of a
sea of fire along the Military Demarcation Line, and even by
mobilizing chemical weapons stored in South Korea chio choktulun
kunsabungyesonsangeso uriedaehan taeung chochiwa pulbadasolul
ununhamyo namjosone pichukdoen hwahakmugikkaji tongwonhayo urirul
pobokhalgosirago wihyop konggalhae nasogoittaâ.
It is officially recognized military common sense that a landing
exercise is an offensive exercise which deviates from the category of
self-defence. We can no longer overlook the fact that this exercise is
a landing exercise aimed at attack, not at defence.
It is all the more clear who this current offensive exercise is
aimed at. The landing exercise by the enemies is clearly part of an
aggressive and offensive military exercise aimed at attacking us
urirul konggyok mokpyoro chonghan chimnnyakchogimyo konggyokchoin
chontuhullyonui ilhwanidaâ.
As we have stated many times, the fact that the United States and
the South Korean puppets have been trumpeting from early this year
that someone might provoke a war by taking advantage of the food
shortage is aimed at creating the preliminary conditions for a pre-
emptive attack on our republic. The enemy has finally determined that
it has basically finished creating the environment to carry out
offensive operations chokdulun machimnae konggyokchakchon
suhaengulwihan hwangyongjosongi kibonsang mamuridoeottago
tasanhagoittaâ.
We have scrupulously observed the unusual military moves
simsangchiannun kunsachok umjigimâ by the South Korean puppet army
along the east and west coasts of Korea, and the bustling mobile
exercise pusansuroun kidong hullyonâ by the US imperialist aggressive
forces which was held at the same time.
When the surprise landing exercise by the South Korean puppet army
against our side's coast was being held in full swing on 14th June,
the US imperialist aggressive forces also deployed the 13th Marine
Corps flight regiment command post from Japan's Iwakuni and from the
west coast of the US mainland to South Korea's Osan Air Force Base,
and separately carried out long-range non-landing flight exercises on
the Iwakuni-Osan air route and the US mainland-Okinawa-Osan air route.
The aim of the US imperialists and South Korean puppets is clear.
It seems the enemies feel that now, when many of our forces are
mobilized on the socialist agricultural front because we are
experiencing temporary difficulties due to repeated natural disasters
and are guaranteeing this year's farming work, is truly the most
favourable opportunity for their pre-emptive strike sonje konggokâ.
This is a wild fantasy.
In particular, at a time when the domestic political crisis has
been driven into a corner due to the continued incidence of
corruption, including the Hanbo scandal and the issue of the
presidential campaign election fund, the person who is the incumbent
authority of South Korea namjoson hyon tangukchaâ is trying to find a
way out by aggravating a tense situation between the North and South
through military confrontation.
Dialogue and war are not compatible. On the surface, they babble
about the four-way talks for permanent peace and security on the
Korean Peninsula, but behind-the-scenes they are attacking us by
wielding a knife. It is as clear as fire where the true intention of
the enemies lies.
At this time, when the dark clouds of war chonjaengui komungurumâ
are blowing vigorously across our fatherland, and when the lightning
of close combat chopchonui pongaekpuliâ flashes before our eyes, our
revolutionary forces cannot have expectations for dialogue, and can by
no means be onlookers of the prevailing situation.
The sacred duty of our People's Army is to guarantee firmly with
force the security of the socialist fatherland and people. If the
United States and the South Korean authorities want military
confrontation with us by all means, then we will not refuse the final
decisive battle chohuui kyolchonâ with them.
If the trigger of aggression is pulled, the trigger of
counterattack will also be pulled. Our People's Army will observe the
enemies'every move, holding high the bayonet to annihilate the enemy,
and will rapidly take corresponding measures.
If the enemies attempt to test our will and military strength to
the end, regardless of our repeated warnings, our People's Army will
mobilize all our potential, which has been strengthened again and
again during the past scores of years, and will vent the pent-up
grudge and anger of our people without fail.
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BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
June 19, 1997, Thursday
"South's newspaper gives details of North's war
plan based on defector's statement"
Source: Yonhap news agency, Seoul, in English 0139 gmt 18 Jun 97
Text of report by the South Korean news agency Yonhap
Seoul, 18th June: North Korea is known to have set up a war plan in
which it will attack Japan in the event the United States intervenes
in a war on the Korean Peninsula, the daily 'Kyonghyang Sinmun'
reported Wednesday as datelineâ. Such a war strategy by the communist
country is contained in a confidential document prepared by the
government on the basis of statements rendered by Hwang Chang-yop, the
secretary of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party, who defected to
South Korea in April, the vernacular newspaper said.
The document quoted Hwang as saying that Pyongyang has a plan to
attack Japan, given a US commitment to "an emergency on the Korean
peninsula" . A high-ranking Defence Ministry official said the North
Korean war plan against Japan, as revealed by Hwang, had been tabled
at a meeting of major army, navy and air force commanders held on 7th
June.
This revelation marks the first time that North Korea's plan to
attack Japan was made known here, and the North Koreans, concluding
that the success of a new war on the Korean Peninsula hinges on
whether or not the US government makes a military commitment, must
have made the attack plan against Japan to prevent US intervention,
the newspaper said.
North Korea's strategy to attack Japan is far beyond the scope of
military operations expected by Seoul, Washington and Tokyo in the
initial days of a new war on the Korean Peninsula. Thus, how the three
governments prepare for this scenario remains to be seen.
Seoul and Washington assume that in the event of a war on the
Korean Peninsula, North Korea would initially launch a massive attack
on US military personnel and facilities in South Korea in order to
deter the US government from making a military commitment.
A military source said the information Washington has gathered
suggests that North Korea has already deployed nine long-range Nodong-
1 missiles capable of hitting Japan. A defence analyst said that if
Secretary Hwang's statements about North Korea's plan to attack Japan
are found to be true, it would greatly stir fears not only in Japan
but also in the United States and would escalate the conflict on the
Korean Peninsula into an international war. The plan, if true,
indicates that North Korea regards war on the peninsula as a matter of
life or death, he added.
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BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
June 17, 1997, Tuesday
"Defector Hwang Chang-yop comments on possible attack by North"
Source: 'Tong-a Ilbo', Seoul, in Korean 12 Jun 97 p2
Text of report by the South Korean newspaper 'Tong-a Ilbo'
During a recent investigation by the Agency for National Security
Planning, Hwang Chang-yop, former secretary of the North Korean
Workers'Party, stated it is highly likely North Korea will make a
surprise southward attack if the USA adopts an equal distance policy
towards South and North Korea as a result of rapid progress in
dialogue between the USA and North Korea.
According to a source, Hwang stated: "An equal distance policy
towards South and North Korea, which the USA might adopt when US-
North Korea dialogue progresses rapidly, would eventually weaken the
US military deterrent force, and in this case, North Korea would
highly likely be tempted to commit an armed provocation."
Hwang also reportedly said: "We cannot rule out the possibility of
an unexpected provocation by North Korea, because, in addition to the
North Korean army's leftist adventurism and Kim Chong-il's
unpredictable aptitude, the North is currently in a 'hopeless critical
situation' due to worsening economic difficulties."
Meanwhile, during a "Political Forum on the Recent North Korean
Situation" held at the Hall of Lawmakers on 11th June, Chong Hyong-
kun, chief situation analyst of the ruling New Korea Party, said:
"There will be no military coup d'etat or unexpected incidents such as
the collapse of the North Korean system because there is no problem in
Kim Chong-il's leadership, and because the system is being maintained
by approximately 5.6m core forces composed of party cadres, officials,
soldiers, and key personnel of the social and cultural sectors."
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BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
June 13, 1997, Friday
"South's agency gives details of incident involving North's soldiers"
Source: Yonhap news agency, Seoul, in English 0903 gmt 12 Jun 97
Text of report by the South Korean news agency Yonhap
Seoul, 12th June: North Korean soldiers approached the Military
Demarcation Line (MDL) on three occasions Wednesday 11th Juneâ, coming
as close as 100 metres from the line, the headquarters of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff reported. In the first instance, the headquarters
said, a group of 10 unarmed and three armed North Korean soldiers came
as close as 100 metres North of the MDL on the mideastern front line
and reconnoitred between 0817 2317 gmt 10th Juneâ and 1200 0300 gmt
11th Juneâ.
The South Korean side issued a warning that anyone crossing the MDL
into the South would be held responsible for his actions. Another team
of six unarmed and 13 armed North Korean soldiers also showed up some
100 metres north of the MDL on the western front between 0645 and
1336, according to the headquarters. On the same day, 28 soldiers were
spotted felling trees, between 0830 and 1332, near the northern side
of the wire fence, it said.
North Korean broadcasts, monitored here Thursday 12th Juneâ,
claimed that the South had openly threatened to turn North Korea into
a "sea of fire" in retaliation for the North Korean soldiers' scouting
activities. "If the South dares to make a challenge, then it will not
be able to escape a thousand- , hundred-fold revenge attack," North
Korea said.
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Financial Times
June 13, 1997, Friday
"Seoul discounts North threat"
By John Burton in Seoul
South Korea's unification minister yesterday played down fears
that North Korea might be preparing a sudden attack in a desperate
response to its threatened famine.
"There is not any special development in North Korea that is
related to aggression, but morale training and military preparations
are still continuing," Mr Kwon O-kie told a government national
security meeting.
He said that North Korea was adding long-range artillery along the
heavily-fortified demilitarised zone with South Korea, while it was
expanding its submarine and landing craft forces and developing long-
range missiles.
Some military analysts and diplomats have recently warned that dire
food shortages might compel North Korea to launch an attack in a last-
ditch effort to seize South Korea before Pyongyang's war capabilities
are severely weakened. Predictions that the famine might result in a
mass exodus of refugees are unlikely "unless the North Korean system
collapses," said Mr Kwon.
Mr Kwon claimed that the threatened famine is likely to be averted
since international donors have promised 800,000 tonnes of food, which
should be sufficient to feed North Koreans until the next harvest in
August. The UN has disputed this assessment, saying that North Korea
needs at least 1.3m tonnes of grain.
Seoul is also claiming that the North Korean army is withholding
food supplies from the civilian population, while it is receiving
regular amounts of rations in addition to its "substantial" food
reserves.
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Japan Economic Newswire
JUNE 12, 1997, THURSDAY
"Pyongyang blasts new Japan-U.S. defense guidelines"
North Korea on Thursday blasted proposed new guidelines on Japan-
U.S. defense cooperation as 'an aggression war scenario' targeted
first at Pyongyang.
The guidelines described in an interim report released last weekend
are 'an aggression war scenario which has been worked out to make a
forestalling attack' on North Korea first, a North Korean Foreign
Ministry spokesman said in a report monitored in Tokyo.
The report on the Korean Central News Agency quoted the spokesman
as describing the interim report as revealing 'the strategic U.S.
purposes of using Japan as a shock brigade in establishing supremacy
over Asia with the policy of strength in disregard of the end of Cold
War as well as the sinister intention of Japan to realize overseas
expansion with the help of the United States.'
The spokesman accused the U.S. of seeking four-way talks with the
two Koreas and China over peace on the Korean Peninsula while stepping
up preparations for a military attack on its dialogue partner.
'The present objective situation requires us to be ready for both
dialogue and war,' the spokesman was quoted as saying.
Referring to stalled talks between Japan and North Korea on
normalizing diplomatic ties, the spokesman insisted that Japan has
avoided normalizing bilateral ties because it 'intends to make its
appearance again as a belligerent.'
'Our armed forces are fully ready to deliver a prompt and severe
counterblow to Japan in case it fully takes part in a war against us,'
the spokesman said in the report.
The proposed Japan-U.S. defense cooperation guidelines would pave
the way for Japan to provide a broad range of logistical and
noncombatant support to the U.S. military if an emergency occurs in
areas 'surrounding Japan.'
Tokyo and Pyongyang began normalization talks in early 1991, but
dialogue broke down in late 1992 when North Korea rejected Japan's
demand for information about a Japanese woman allegedly abducted by
North Korean agents.
Japan, which had the Korean Peninsula under colonial rule from 1910
to 1945, normalized ties with South Korea in 1965 but has no official
ties with the North.
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BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
June 11, 1997, Wednesday
"South's official: Kim Chong-il likely to
'take full control next month'"
Source: Yonhap news agency, Seoul, in English 0629 gmt 10 Jun 97
Text of report by the South Korean news agency Yonhap
Seoul, 10th June: North Korea has recently ordered replacement of
all street pictures and slogans related to late leader Kim Il-sung
with those of his son, Kim Chong-il, in a possible sign that the son-
heir will officially take full control next month, National
Unification Minister Kwon O-ki said Tuesday as datelineâ.
"There does not seem to be any obstacle to Kim Chong-il succeeding
as president of the state and secretary-general of the Nodong party
Choson Nodong-dang - Korean Workers' Partyâ," Kwon said in a briefing
session to local government chiefs and Home Ministry officials.
"There is a possibility that Kim Chong-il will formally take over
after 8th July," he said, referring to the date when the official
three-year mourning period for his father ends.
Kwon said public agitation and socially deviant activities are
increasing due to food shortages, and the number of defectors from
North Korea is expected to reach 100 by year-end. There have been 46
defectors so far.
"The North Korean system is under siege by Kim Chong-il and the
political situation remains stable, rendering the possibility that the
system will remain intact by force for quite a period of time," said
Kwon. "But there is also the possibility that the latent elements of
instability may explode," he said.
North Korea stationed 65 per cent of its military forces south of
the Pyongyang-Wonsan line, all of whom are in a position to attack at
a moment's notice, according to Kwon.
In addition, the North has stationed 14 AN-2s and 20 assault air
cushion vehicles on the frontline last year and has deployed 140
pieces of 170mm multiple rocket launchers at front-line batteries
since 1995, he said.
It also has more than 100 aircraft stationed at three bases near
the Military Demarcation Line, enabling them to attack Seoul in six
minutes, the unification minister said.
Noting that national unification is now "a matter of reality and
preparedness" , Kwon said, "the government is drawing up plans by each
category and making preparations, and it must inevitably be ready for
North Korea's sudden collapse" .
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The Washington Times
June 11, 1997, Wednesday
"Is the North Korea threat genuine?"
By James T. Hackett
Reports out of North Korea are increasingly indicating that the
society is on the verge of collapse and that Kim Jong-il, who
inherited the leadership from his father three years ago, is preparing
to invade South Korea, believing that is the only way he can hold onto
power.
The governments of the three countries most directly affected -
South Korea, the United States and Japan - brush off the warnings as
just more propaganda. But evidence keeps mounting, and China
apparently thinks war is a real possibility. On May 30, the Hong Kong
Morning Post reported that the Peoples Liberation Army is planning a
major war game in July to test the ability of its combat units to cope
with any overspill from a conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
The February defection of Hwang Jang-yop, the highest ranking
North Korean official ever to defect, was considered a tremendous gain
for Western intelligence agencies trying to predict the behavior of
the secretive North Korean regime. But now that Mr. Hwang is saying
things the administration does not want to hear, his warnings are
being played down.
Mr. Hwang says Kim Jong-il is in firm control, that he believes
North Korea has both nuclear and high-grade chemical weapons, and if
those weapons are used South Korea will be turned "into a sea of
flames." And if the United States intervenes, Mr. Hwang adds, the
North will use ballistic missiles with nuclear and chemical weapons to
"scorch Japan, too," and will send suicide attacks against the U.S.
Navy.
Underlining Mr. Hwang's comments, the CIA has confirmed North
Korea's deployment of 10 new Nodong ballistic missiles. If the
Nodong's estimated range of 1,300 km is correct, it could target most
of Japan, including Tokyo and U.S. bases. Critics dismiss the Nodong
as not very accurate, but that hardly matters if it carries nuclear or
chemical weapons.
In a May 9 appearance before the Intelligence Committee of the
South Korean National Assembly, Kwon Young-hae, director of South
Korea's National Security Planning Agency, reported that Mr. Hwang
said Kim Jong-il sees war as the only way out of his troubles and is
convinced his army can win a quick military victory.
In late May a boatload of refugees fled to South Korea, bringing
reports that the North is mobilizing for war and has extended military
enlistments. The ship's engineer, Kim Won-hyung, said rumors were
widespread that Kim Jong-il is preparing to attack the South between
July and October, after the three-year period of mourning following
his father's death on July 8, 1994.
The North's strategy is to infiltrate 100,000 commandos to destroy
air bases and other priority targets, then conduct a huge barrage by
10,000 artillery pieces and rockets along the demilitarized zone,
while sending several hundred Scuds carrying chemical weapons into the
South. Finally, a blitzkrieg (as in 1950) would quickly destroy South
Korean forces.
The isolated North Korean military commanders may really believe
this, yet reports of an imminent invasion are being treated with
skepticism. The North has made threats so often they no longer are
believed. It is assumed that the impoverished North, demanding large-
scale food aid, is merely trying to gain concessions. And the threats
may also be for internal consumption, to focus the anger of the
starving people on foreign enemies.
But if the goal is to blackmail the West into propping up Kim
Jong-il's regime, it appears to be working. South Korea has promised
to send 50,000 tons of food, the United States already has sent 27,000
tons, with 50,000 tons more on the way in addition to shipments of
fuel oil, despite reports that the people are getting none of it.
The consensus is that Mr. Kim is bluffing. But what if he is
not? No one expected Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor in 1941, or for Mr.
Kim's father to invade South Korea in 1950. If Kim Jong-il believes
war is the only way to hold onto power, he may well launch a new
invasion. After years of concessions by President Clinton, the
reclusive North Korean leadership could convince itself the United
States will not fight again in Korea.
Those of us who remember the 1950 invasion and the trauma of three
years of war and 164,000 American casualties suffer a sense of
foreboding. As the July anniversary of the Great Leader's death
approaches, it may be wise to show some teeth in addition to
generosity. After all, aggressors are deterred by military strength,
not appeasement.
Last year, when China was launching missiles toward Taiwan, the
despatch of carrier task forces to the region had a sobering effect.
The quiet deployment of a carrier task force to Korean waters and the
assignment of a squadron of B-1 bombers to Guam, noting that each
plane can deliver 120,000 pounds of bombs, could have a similar
effect.
It also would be useful to make a public display of deploying the
newest model Patriot missile interceptors around Tokyo and Seoul, and
to announce plans to add longer-range interceptors when they are
available. A show of toughness toward the Stalinists in Pyongyang is
long overdue.
James T. Hackett is a contributing writer to The Washington Times
based in San Diego.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
May 23, 1997, Friday
"Defectors to South speak of 'rumours of war',
military personnel policies"
Source: Yonhap news agency, Seoul, in English 0310 gmt 22 May 97
Text of report entitled: "Rumours of war breaking out in July-
October period spreading in North Korea" , carried by the South Korean
news agency Yonhap
Seoul, 22nd May: Rumours of a war breaking out between June and
October are spreading among the North Korean people, a recent North
Korean defector said in a press conference Thursday as datelineâ.
Despite severe food shortages, North Korea recently extended enlisted
service for soldiers in the people's armed forces. It has also begun
to draft even those teenagers (17 and 18-years-old) of non-communist
and non-proletarian backgrounds, previously excluded from the military
service, to strengthen the North's fighting force, said Kim Won-hyong.
The 57-year-old defector arrived by boat Tuesday last week 13th Mayâ,
sailing directly from Sinuiju on the lower Amnok (Yalu) River to
Inchon Port with 13 members of his family and the family of his friend
An Son-kuk, 47.
They were the first known North Korean boat people to have ever
taken a direct path of defection to the South via the sea.
Kim said rumours have been spreading since the beginning of the
year that Kim Chong-il, upon rising to power immediately after the
third anniversary of his father's death, will probably attack the
South between July and October. In October last year, the North Korean
People's Armed Forces extended the military service of draftees from
10 years to 13 years, sparking complaints among the draftees that they
would now be discharged from active military service when they reach
the age of 30.
Kim's son, Hui-kun, 29, who worked as a high school physics teacher
in Sinuiju, said in 1994 that the People's Army began drafting people
22 years old and younger of "dubious" family backgrounds. He also said
that starting from this year, the army started to conscript even those
people blacklisted for their dubious loyalty to the regime. Hui-kun's
wife, So Chong-sim, 25, said that during the month of March, medical
doctors and nurses underwent a week-long first-aid exercise in
preparations for a war in Kangwon Province.
An Son-kukâ talked about "a comprehensive military drill" between
10th-31st March in which the party, security agencies and the military
all took part. The drill was conducted on Kim Chong-il's orders as a
final test of war readiness, including defensive exercises against a
US attack, rear attack by combat forces and support forces by reserve
units. The North Korean military bars all young officers from marrying
until after age 30 because married soldiers with families "lose
bravery" and often have been found stealing food and clothes, An said,
adding all married officers will be forcibly retired in July. He
further described an enforced border control with 31 new brigades,
about the size of seven battalions, dispatched to border patrol to
prevent North Koreans' escape. The 11 brigades that were patrolling
the border and coasts were put in charge of coastal monitors at the
end of 1994, an said.
Defector Kim Won-hyong said that military forces of battalion size
reside at every farm in Sinuiju, also under orders from Kim Chong-il,
to watch over farmers and the cultivation process to guard against
increasing theft by farmers, brokers and delivery men of food and even
grain seeds.
Kim Won-hyong's son, Hui-song, said North Korean citizens who are
not rationed food aid from other countries believe all of the aid is
going into military stockpiles, adding: "Some people believe that
(other countries) are helping Kim Chong-il for fear of the North
Korean military."
North Koreans are using opium powder as a first-aid drug due to a
lack of medicine, some defectors revealed. They also told of growing
discontent against Kim Chong-il because of the nation's economic
plight that has led to frequent public executions to suppress such
dissent.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
THE KOREA HERALD
May 23, 1997
"Defector Says Rumors of War Rife in North;
Tells of Widespread Speculation Kim Jong-il
Will Attack South Between July-October"
A rumor is spreading in North Korea that the North will attack the
South in the very near future, a defector said yesterday.
Kim Won-hyung, one of 14 members of two North Korean families who
defected on a boat through the West Sea May 13 following a three-day
saga, made the point at a news conference held at the Korea Press
Center in Seoul.
There's a widespread rumor in the North that Kim Jong-il may
launch an attack on the South after he officially succeeds his father,
who died in July 1994, and that the timing would be between July and
October,'' Kim said.
He also said that North Korea has extended the compulsory military
service for conscripts from 10 to 13 years last October.
So young men are complaining that they have to spend their youth
in the military before they are discharged at age 30,'' said Kim, who
was a foreign-exchange earner assigned to a military unit.
Kim said the government ration has been dropped to 10 kg of rice
per month since 1994, and added that he heard of a couple of villagers
who died of hunger in Shinuiju, his hometown.
Shortage of medicine in the Stalinist North has led to widespread
use of opium as a cure-all, Kim added.
As far as his family was concerned, Kim said they didn't suffer
from hunger as much as other North Korean citizens thanks to the
financial help of his twin brother living in New York, Kim In-hyung,
who has been sending money since 1990.
Another defector, Ahn Sun-kook, 47, said the North Korean military
had imposed a marriage ban on officers until they turn 30. The ban was
imposed because married soldiers were thought to fear for their lives
during combat more than single men and pilfer food and clothes from
the military for their family, Ahn said.
Ahn, also a foreign-exchange earner assigned to the National
Academy of Science, said North Korea had created Brigade 31'' to step
up border checks in northern areas bordering China because an
increasing number of North Koreans were fleeing in search of food.
Due to the food shortage, an increasing number of North Korean
people have begun to complain about their leader Kim Jong-il, but
there is no organized dissident or antigovernment movement as it would
mean death for them, he said.
Kim Hee-sung, 20, the third son of Kim Won-hyung, said the North
Korean people believed that most of foreign food aid, after arriving
in the North, went to the military as only few ordinary people had
received food aid.
Before the news conference, Kim, in a tearful family reunion after
46 years, met his 83-year-old mother, Cha Soon-duk, and twin brother
In-hyung, who arrived in Seoul earlier in the morning from New York.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Washington Post
May 09, 1997, Friday
EXCERPT FROM:
"N. Koreans' 'Paradise'; Men Forced to Work in Russia
Endure Labor Camps -- but at Least They Eat"
By Mary Jordan
"The man (a Russian-trained North Korean operative sent
to communicate with a Western reporter) also said there
were rumors in North Korea that the government planned to
launch a war against South Korea in June or July, and
people were digging tunnels and shelters to prepare."
When an American reporter tried to speak to the North Korean
construction workers remodeling the once glorious Golden Horn Hotel in
the city center, those working on the $ 500,000 home of a "newly rich"
Russian -- the common euphemism for "mobster" -- and those plastering
at a run-down suburban apartment complex, frightened looks crossed the
workers' faces. Some disappeared in a flash. Others quickly fetched
their supervisor, who wore a dark green uniform and a Kim Il Sung pin
and shooed away the outsider.
"No Americans! You will never know anything about us!" the
supervisor shouted. Said another: "I am not free to say whether I like
it or not; I am here working for my government."
Choi, the worker approached in a vegetable field outside of town,
was unusually friendly, thanking the United States for its recent
contributions of food aid to North Korea. But he also declared
loyally that while his country has some problems, "we do believe we
can solve our problems ourselves."
Inside his house, where a dozen other North Koreans lived, a huge
sign in Korean read: "We are following our Great Leader's legacy."
There was little else in the shack, except tiny cots on a dirt floor.
In clandestine meetings with other North Korean workers, a few
guardedly told of the horrors at home and difficulties here. One man,
a construction worker who came from North Korea two weeks ago, said
many children were dying. He said hearses made regular swings through
towns, stopping at every home to see if there were bodies to be picked
up.
The man also said there were rumors in North Korea that the
government planned to launch a war against South Korea in June or
July, and people were digging tunnels and shelters to prepare. He was
unsure if the rumors were a government tactic to channel the unrest of
hungry people, or a real sign of war preparations.
The man said he traveled from Russia to Pyongyang, the North Korean
capital, by train in January. Along the way, he said, he saw small
children crowded into every station, their hands out begging for
scraps of food. He said it is easy to tell the government elite from
most other people because the well-connected are not as thin and sick.
"It is not a place for human beings," another man wrote last week
in a letter he left with a Russian acquaintance. He said he hoped the
letter would reach "the real world" and perhaps be broadcast on South
Korean television.
In the letter, delivered to a Washington Post reporter here, the
man said it would be impossible for outsiders to understand the
anxiety he feels knowing that he could be jailed or executed for
saying anything bad about Kim Il Sung or Kim Jong Il. He said he was
forbidden to tell anyone at home that conditions in Russia are better
than in the North. Even when he tried to tell his parents, he said,
"40 years of brainwashing" made it impossible for them to believe it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FROM: http://www.kimsoft.com/korea/eyewit3a.htm
May 15, 1950 - US CIA reports: "N Korea suffers from a shortage of
skilled administrative personnel and from weaknesses in its economy
and its official Party organizations. There is widespread, although
passive, popular discontent with the Communist government...
May 30, 1950 - US CIA reports: N Korean Army has 66,000 men including
16,000 ex-Chinese troops, supplemented by 20,500 border guards, 1,500
airmen and 5,100 seamen plus 60,000-70,000 Koreans in Chinese Red Army
in reserve. Equipment include 65 T-34 tanks, 35 Yak-9 fighters and
negligible navy. US CIA reports: "Trained and equipped units of the
Communist "People's Army" are being deployed southward in the area of
the 38th Parallel.". CIA estimates are off by as much as 150% on the
low side. This error enhances the US confidence that the S Korean Army
can repel any invasion from North.
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ARTICLES ARE FOR FAIR USE ONLY
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