ECLIPSES & CRASHES

In a manner similar to how planetary alignments coincide with long-term shifts in stock market movements, lunar phenomenon, and eclipses in particular, tend to be connected with short-term, large-scale movements in stock prices such as stock market crashes.

Two of the greatest examples of this occurred in October of 1929 and 1987. With the October 17th, 1929 full moon going into a solar eclipse on November 1st of that year, the DJIA entered a vertical drop that culminated with the infamous 1929 stock market crash into October 29th.

Likewise, with the lunar eclipse on October 7th of 1987, which occurred just after a solar eclipse, the U.S. stock market entered a 13-day collapse that climaxed on Black Monday when the DJIA fell more than 20% in a single day.

Market researchers Steve Puetz (pronounced "pits") and Chris Carolan have done landmark work in the study of the link between lunar and market phenomenon.

Steve Puetz examined the connection between eclipses and stock market crashes throughout history. He found that eight of the greatest stock market crashes in history hit within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. According to Puetz, the probability of this occurring accidentally is .23 raised to the eighth power – less than one chance in 127,000 - strong evidence that, for whatever reason, full moons and/or lunar eclipses just before or after solar eclipses trigger stock market crashes. (For an excellent review of this matter and a timely overview on the current state of the U.S. stock market, see Peter Eliades' Current Observations.)

Chris Carolan has taken an even more profound angle in his study of lunar/market phenomena. By combining special Fibonacci mathematical analysis with the lunar calendar, Carolan discovered the Spiral Calendar.

According to the Spiral Calendar, significant extremes of mass emotion in markets repeat on special lunar calendar "anniversaries" of previous extremes. To determine when such anniversaries occur, a lunar year is multiplied by exponential values of the Golden Ratio's (1.618) square root (this is a simpler approach than used by Carolan). In other words, the number of calendar days between Spiral Calendar anniversaries is determined by the following formula:

Where a "lunar year" equals 354.36 days, which is based upon 12 synodic periods (from new moon to new moon) of 29.5306 days.

1.272019 is the square root of 1.618034, the Fibonacci "Golden Ratio" that has been found to accurately predict Elliott Wave time and price movements in stock prices.

Using the above equation, you can produce a series of time intervals as below:

                       N       354.36 * 1.272 ^ N
                       --------------------------
                       1                451 days 
                       2                573 days 
                       3                729 days 
                       4                923 days 
                       5               1180 days 
                       6               1501 days 
                       7               1909 days 
                       8               2429 days 
                       9               3089 days 
                       10              3929 days 
                       11              4998 days 
                       12              6359 days 
                       13              8088 days 
                       14             10289 days 
                       15             13087 days 
                       16             16647 days 
                       17             21176 days 
                       18             26936 days 

The time spans above tend to be the periodicity between important emotional extremes and associated turning points in the stock market. The larger the time span is, the more significant the associated emotional extremes and turning points usually are.

While there are countless examples of how the Spiral Calendar works, probably the best example was the connection between the 1929 and 1987 stock market tops and subsequent crashes. From the September 3rd, 1929 stock market peak to the August 25th, 1987 peak (which involved a new moon planetary alignment), was one day more than:

Likewise, the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes were also separated by the same interval. Thus, Carolan was able to accurately predict when the 1987 stock market crash would occur beforehand gaining him and his unique market theory widespread notoriety.

An important feature of the 1929, 1987 and other such stock market crashes is their seasonal timing, i.e., the tendency for such panics to occur in the Autumn. In this regard, Chris Carolan has noted that market crashes tend to occur on the 27th and 28th days of the 6th or 7th lunar month during the lunar year. To further understand this phenomenon, please read Carolan's award winning article, "Autumn Panics".

So what about right now?

As it turns out, on July 28th, 1999, the day this research paper is being complete, a partial lunar eclipse has occurred that is preceding a total solar eclipse on August 11th. Given the insights of Steve Puetz concerning the connection between eclipses and stock market crashes, this means what Peter Eliades predicts above. A stock market crash may have started in recent days and a decline of up to 50% from the recent top above Dow 11000 could occur within a few weeks. If a crash is not starting from the July 28th full moon/lunar eclipse, then the next possible time for a 1999 stock market crash to begin is with the full moon after the August 11th solar eclipse, i.e., around August 26th.

By incorporating the insights of Chris Carolan concerning autumn market panic, we can further say that any stock market crash from here would most likely climax into either August 8th or September 6th, the 27th and 28th days of this lunar year's sixth and seventh months.

All in all, given the connection between eclipses and stock market crashes along with the seasonal and lunar factors that seem to contribute to crash climaxes, we are now entering the time period when a stock market crash is most likely to occur. Specifically, the most likely time for a stock market crash to occur in 1999 is between now and August 8th or between August 26th and September 6th.

For a good warning of whether or not a stock market crash is about to occur, pay attention to this CRASH INDEX...

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