| Spirit Of Truth | Stock Market Update | Unreported Truth |
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Living based upon greed and a faith in an invisible hand is a
dangerous mistake. This may end up being the moral of the story,
so to speak, of what is going to happen next.
Following a mid-October, Spiral Calendar anniversary top in stock prices, a sharp drop below Dow 8000 has occurred. (This top was predicted years in advance by Chris Carolan, who developed the Spiral Calendar and is currently headquartered at Elliott Wave International ). The DJIA is now poised to fall below the critical 7600 mark and thereby trigger a Dow Theory sell signal. This means a panic sell-off, possibly the Great Crash of '97, is about to occur. As is the typical seasonal pattern for mass panics, the crash is coming around the end of October, when the 1987 and 1929 stock market crashes occurred. (There is even a possibility that tomorrow will be some kind of "Black Monday" given that the Dow may break below 7600).
If, as the Elliott Wave Principle indicates, we have just passed a Grand Supercycle peak in stock prices, then the crash about to occur could be of literally biblical proportions. What do I mean by this? One might think of the recent stock top as a peak in man's misled confidence in himself. This confidence is misled because man is actually bringing about a world war and self-destruction rather than world peace and collective success like is anticipated now. But rather than getting into the obvious particulars of the false peace that currently prevails and the catastrophic war that will result, let me just point out that the self-destructive course of society can be undone only if people learn to place their faith in God rather than themselves and/or worldly things.
In the meantime, there's Saddam Hussein to deal with...
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"Iraq Acts Against U.N. Inspectors"
By Waiel Faleh
Associated Press Writer
Sunday, October 26, 1997; 6:33 p.m. EST
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- The Iraqi Parliament recommended Sunday
that contacts with U.N. weapons inspectors be frozen -- a
response provoked by a U.N. Security Council threat of further
sanctions against Baghdad.
During Sunday's televised session, Iraq's National Assembly
called on the government to suspend its cooperation with U.N.
inspectors trying to verify whether Iraq has eliminated its
weapons of mass destruction.
The National Assembly sent its recommendations to the Revolution
Command Council, Iraq's main decision-making body, the Iraqi
News Agency reported, giving no further details.
However, assembly members speaking on condition of anonymity
said the 250-member body, which debated for two days, proposed
that Iraq halt all contacts with the inspectors ``until Iraq's
cooperation is recognized.''
Assembly Speaker Saadoun Hamadi conveyed the recommendation to
President Saddam Hussein, the deputies said. Saddam had referred
the U.N. resolution to the largely rubber-stamp Parliament for a
recommendation.
The arms inspections date to the end of Persian Gulf War in
1991, when the council ordered Iraq to destroy its long-range
missiles and chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
Until Iraq adheres to the order, the council will not lift stern
economic sanctions imposed after Saddam sent his forces into
Kuwait in 1990.
Last June, the council warned Iraq that it would consider a
travel ban unless the U.N. inspectors' October report found
Baghdad in compliance. The report concluded, however, that Iraq
was withholding information and impeding the investigation.
In response, the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution
Thursday warning Baghdad that the council will ban foreign
travel by some Iraqi officials if the country does not cooperate
with inspectors.
Deputy Iftikhar Ahmad Ayoob said during Sunday's session that
she endorses the recommendation to freeze ties until there is
recognition that Iraq has made efforts to comply with U.N.
orders.
``They made us feel like we have not done anything. It is all
because of the blind hatred of the American administration,''
she said.
Saad Qassem Hamoudi, another deputy, said Iraq had fulfilled its
duties toward the inspectors.
``It is time that the world ... give Iraq its rights because it
has implemented most of the resolutions,'' Hamoudi told the
session.
Saddam repeatedly has threatened to end cooperation with U.N.
inspectors, believing that the United States and Britain will
never agree to lift sanctions.
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Global Economy Faces Trouble
By Charles J. Hanley
AP Special Correspondent
Sunday, October 26, 1997; 1:26 p.m. EST
The talk these prosperous days, from Wall Street to Wuhan, is of
boundless economic horizons. But just over the horizon lies a
familiar patch of troubled waters, a blue-green whirlpool called
the Persian Gulf.
As the global economy sped ahead in 1997, navigating through
market dips and Asian currency scares, optimists began
speculating about a ``repeal'' of the laws of boom and bust. But
they'd better repeal the laws of internal combustion first.
A check of America's gas tank tells you why: The United States
is importing more than half the oil it burns. And Persian Gulf
petroleum is even more important elsewhere in the world economy,
especially in parts of Asia where the optimism already is
tempered by currency crises and stockmarket slumps.
It's been a generation since the industrial world first learned
what an oil crisis could mean.
At that time, in 1973, an Arab embargo led to a quadrupling of
oil prices and a world recession. A few years later, Iran's
revolution produced another global oil squeeze and economic
slump.
In those years, the United States relied on imports for as
little as one-third of its oil.
The new heavy dependence on foreign oil troubles some in
Washington. Hazel O'Leary, the former energy secretary, said
earlier this year that ``we need a wake-up call'' that only a
new oil price shock might provide.
Oil traders, of course, don't need reminders. When the U.S.
aircraft carrier Nimitz rushed to the Persian Gulf this month,
amid heightening tensions there, crude oil prices jumped almost
$2 a barrel, to more than $23.
That ``crisis of the month'' may be subsiding, but the twists
and turns of the Gulf whirlpool remain unpredictable:
--In the Gulf's tight quarters, crowded with American, Iranian
and other naval vessels, miscalculations and mishaps easily can
escalate into confrontation.
--Iran and Iraq might clash over Iraq's sheltering of anti-
Iranian guerrillas, a flashpoint for tensions in recent weeks.
--Iraq might draw U.S. or broader international retaliation if
it violates ``no-fly'' zones or rejects U.N. weapons
inspections.
--Terrorists might again attack American forces in the region.
If an Iranian link is uncovered, a major Gulf showdown could
result.
Crises like these would each affect the flow of oil in different
ways. For one thing, long-distance pipelines make the region
less dependent on Gulf shipping than it once was. But any Gulf
conflict inevitably would drive oil prices up sharply and
quickly. And the waves and ripples from such an emergency, even
if short-lived, would reach everywhere.
America's oil imports have been climbing since the mid-1980s, as
domestic oil production declined by more than 25 percent. The
U.S. appetite grew in the '90s with the booming economy and the
popularity of sport utilities and other gas-hungry vehicles. So
far this year, imports have supplied 55 percent of consumption,
one-fifth of that coming from the Persian Gulf.
In Asia, the heavier dependence grew even more quickly.
China, an oil producer, became an oil importer in 1993 as it
modernized industry from coastal Shanghai to inland Wuhan.
Expanding automobile ownership across East Asia may help boost
global consumption from today's 73 million barrels a day to over
90 million by 2010, energy analysts say.
Already operating at more than 90 percent capacity, oil
producers will scramble to keep up. The big energy companies
have big plans for the Caucasus and Central Asia, but the flow
from many of those fields lies years over the horizon.
Until then, the Gulf, with its oil and its crises, lies
comfortably --and uncomfortably -- closer at hand. It's a fact
of life sometimes forgotten as stock indexes have risen on Wall
Street, but never forgotten in the whirlpool itself.
``My job is stability,'' a U.S. destroyer captain told a
reporter in the Gulf earlier this year. ``Because if this neck
of the world blew up, what would really suffer is the world
economy. That's what it all comes back to -- economics.''
EDITOR'S NOTE -- Charles J. Hanley has reported on international
affairs for The Associated Press since 1976.
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