| Armageddon Alert | Global War Articles | The Truth |
***IRAQ UPDATE***
J. Adams
2:00 AM, Friday
October 10th, 1997
The *Spirit Of Truth* Page
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/
What are the tragic consequences of pervasive iniquity,
inequity and injustice? How does the anger of God manifest as
wrath upon a world that has rejected truth, gone against God and
systematically violated the Golden Rule of Love? What happens to
a society that has mainly received abundance and prosperity from
its Creator yet choses to deny its Maker?
Maybe this is what "Saddam's Revenge" and the coming global
war are all about. Maybe the West's self-serving, arrogant
treatment of the rest of the world is the source of the West's
own undoing. And maybe the time for that undoing is fast
approaching.
Saddam has just about picked a new fight with the West.
Today the U.S. made a open threat that continuing Iraqi
violations of No-Fly Zones over northern and southern Iraq will
result in a U.S. military response. This military reponse could
be shooting down Iraqi warplanes or cruise missile attacks
against Iraqi military targets.
As I have been warning, such renewed fighting with Iraq will
likely be used as a pretext for some sort of extreme reactions by
Saddam Hussein. I think one of these reactions, one element of
Saddam's Revenge, could involve a chemical SCUD missile attack
against Israel and/or setting-off a new Arab-Israeli. This war in
the Middle East, in turn, will lead into a global nuclear
holocaust compliments of the antichrist (Mikhail Gorbachev). In
other words, Western agression against Saddam Hussein's Iraq in
the near-future, driven by US oil real-politics, could seemingly
touch-off world war three here.
Developments concerning Iraq appear to be culminating into
this weekend to some extent. On Saturday, October 11th, a report
will be presented to the Security Council critical of Baghdad's
poor cooperation with UN weapons' inspectors seeking to eliminate
Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Saddam's reaction to this
report and the prospect of continuing, if not worsening, economic
and political sanctions might be what provokes a U.S. military
response. Possibly in relation to this, on Sunday the aircraft
carrier battlegroup promptly dispatched to the Persian Gulf last
week will arrive in the Gulf.
One might note that October 11th (or from sunset today to
sunset Saturday) is Yom Kippur, also known as the "Day of
Atonement", the most holy Jewish holiday. It was on Yom Kippur
in October of 1973 when the Arabs last launched a surprise attack
against Israel since this is when the Jewish people are most
vulnerable. This is also when the Jewish people are called upon
to answer for their sins.
It's remarkable how history repeats itself because man fails
to learn from past mistakes. This is why there are persistent
stock market cycles of greed and fear- collective confidence and
then mass disappoinment- because the errors of history are
being systematically repeated.
http://www.lowrisk.com/crash/87vs97.htm
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/j06.html
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/j08.html
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/content.html
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RELATED ARTICLES
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"U.S. Tightens Iraq `No-Fly Zone'"
By Robert Burns
Thursday, October 9, 1997; 8:00 p.m. EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The United States is tightening enforcement of
a no-fly zone over southern Iraq, and Defense Secretary William
Cohen said Thursday that Iraq will "bear the consequences" if its
warplanes continue to violate the ban.
Asked to explain what consequences Cohen had in mind, his
spokesman Kenneth Bacon declined, but he noted the presence in
the Persian Gulf of U.S. strategic bombers and Navy ships capable
of firing Tomahawk cruise missiles.
In addition, the Nimitz carrier battle group is steaming toward
the Gulf, and Bacon said its fighter aircraft should be flying in
the area by this weekend.
Bacon said the United States is tightening its enforcement of the
no-fly zone by patrolling closer to the 33rd parallel, which
marks the northern edge of the zone. He said larger numbers of
U.S. planes are participating in each patrol, too.
In a later interview on PBS's "Newshour with Jim Lehrer," Cohen
was more explicit in his warning.
"Saddam Hussein is probing for weaknesses, trying to flaunt
the...no-fly zones," Cohen said, adding that U.S. pilots know how
to react. "The word has gone forth that any violations will be
strictly dealt with and that would include shooting them down."
The no-fly zone was created after the 1991 Gulf War to prevent
Iraqi government forces from attacking rebel Shiite Muslims in
the southern marsh areas. The last time a U.S. plane attacked an
Iraqi violator of the zone was Jan. 18, 1993, when an Air Force
fighter shot down a MiG-25 with an air-to-air missile.
Cohen said Iraqi aircraft have periodically crossed into the no-
fly zone recently. He accused Iraqi President Saddam Hussein of
playing a dangerous game.
"He is posing a risk to himself, his pilots as such, whenever
they start to challenge the no-fly zone," Cohen told reporters
during a photo session in his office. "If they make a mistake,
they will have to bear the consequences."
Several times in recent days U.S. officials have publicly
cautioned Iraq against flying in the restricted zone, but the
comments by Cohen and Bacon seemed to suggest the Clinton
administration was considering possible retaliatory measures that
might go beyond simply shooting down Iraqi violators.
Bacon's mention of cruise missiles appeared to be a reminder that
Tomahawk missiles from Navy ships and submarines in the Gulf were
fired at Iraqi air defense positions in the no-fly zone below the
33rd parallel in September 1996. The U.S. attack was in
retaliation for Saddam's siege of the Kurdish-controlled city of
Irbil.
Bacon also noted that the U.S. Air Force has two B-1 strategic
bombers in the Gulf state of Bahrain. This is in addition to the
fleet of U.S., French and British fighters based in Saudi Arabia
that are patrolling the no-fly zone over Iraq.
"We have shown in the past that we are willing and able to
enforce the no-fly zone," Bacon said. "We have a powerful
military force in the area. ... Rather than speculate about the
future, I will just point to the fact that we have protected our
interests there in the past."
Asked directly whether the administration was thinking of taking
retaliatory measures other than shooting down Iraqi violators of
the no-fly zone, Bacon would say only that the United States in
the past has used "a variety of military assets" to protect its
interests in Iraq. "I'll leave it at that," he said.
Besides its incursions into the no-fly zone, Iraq also has
recently interfered with U.N. weapons inspectors. Some U.S.
officials see this, combined with the no-fly zone violations, as
a new pattern of Iraqi defiance.
Bacon said the Iraqis had not violated the no-fly zone in the
past 24 hours. The first recent incident was last week, when
Iraqi planes responded to attacks by Iranian warplanes on Iranian
rebel bases in southern Iraq.
That incident prompted Cohen to accelerate by about one week the
Nimitz battle group's deployment to the Gulf. It skipped a port
call in Singapore to get there early. Two Navy ships that had
been scheduled to end their deployment in the Gulf this week were
ordered to stay until the Nimitz arrived, Bacon said.
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CNN
SHOW: CNN WORLDVIEW 18:00 pm ET
October 9, 1997; Thursday 6:05 pm Eastern Time
Transcript # 97100902V18
"U.S. Sending Message To Saddam Hussein
to Stay Out of No-Fly Zone"
By: Bernard Shaw, Jamie McIntyre
The Pentagon has issued a warning to Saddam Hussein, telling
him to stay out of the no-fly zone. The statement has been made
in reaction to the recent breaking of the no-fly agreement by
Iraq.
BERNARD SHAW, CNN ANCHOR: The United States issued a warning
to Saddam Hussein Thursday, as it announced tighter enforcement
of the no-fly zone of southern Iraq. Our Military Affairs
Correspondent Jamie McIntyre is at the Pentagon. He joins us now
with more.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bernie, more muscular words
from the Pentagon today, which says Iraq is continuing to violate
the no-fly zone in southern Iraq on a periodic basis. A U.S. air
patrols of the no-fly zone are not everywhere all the time.
Iraqi pilots have apparently figured out how to dart in and out
quickly enough to avoid getting shot down. In effect, thumbing
their noses at the U.S.. In response, the Pentagon is increasing
the number of planes patrolling the zone, and sending them
farther north, right up near the 33rd parallel, the northern
boundary of the restricted airspace. The intended message to
Saddam Hussein is "get back in your box!"
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WILLIAM COHEN, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: But he is posing a risk
to himself, his pilots, as such, whenever they start to challenge
the no-fly zone. If they make a mistake they will have to bear
the consequences of it, but we have taken measures to tighten the
area around which they seem intent on seeking to exploit on a
very quick and piecemeal basis.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCINTYRE: In case Saddam Hussein still doesn't get point, the
U.S. underscored today that it has considerable military might
in the region, 122 warplanes, including two B-1 bombers based in
Bahrain. As well as Tomahawk cruise missiles on U.S. Navy ships
in the Persian gulf. And reinforcements are on the way. By
Sunday the U.S. aircraft carrier Nimitz will be in position in
the Gulf to contribute 50 more warplanes for duty patrolling the
no-fly zone.
Bernie?
SHAW: Jamie, you mentioned B-1 bombers and the Tomahawk cruise
missiles. Is there any suggestion the United States might do
more than shoot down the offending planes, such as perhaps strike
other targets if the violations continue?
MCINTYRE: Well, I think what the Pentagon is doing is pretty
clear. It's trying to send as powerful a message as possible to
Saddam Hussein to back off. As one official here put it, "we're
not doing this to launch a war, we're doing it to get his
attention." So while the Pentagon has not ruled anything out,
sources tell us that no purely retaliatory strikes are under
consideration.
Bernie?
SHAW: Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon.
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"U.S. Warns Iraq Not to Violate No-Fly Zones"
By Charles Aldinger
Thursday October 9 5:52 PM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuter) - The United States Thursday refused to rule
out cruise missile or other strikes against Iraq if Iraqi
warplanes continued to violate no-fly zones over that country.
"We have a powerful military force in the Gulf ready to protect
our interests there," Defense Department spokesman Ken Bacon told
reporters in response to questions. He declined to rule any
action in or out, or to say whether U.S. forces might go beyond
trying to shoot down Iraqi jets.
"We have in the past used a variety of military assets, including
Tomahawk (cruise) missiles and aircraft, to protect our
interests. And we will be able to do that in the future," the
spokesman said when pressed by reporters.
Meanwhile, the State Department said that Washington planned to
press for the "strongest possible action" by the United Nations
to make Iraq comply with a U.N. commission charged with scrapping
Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
"I don't want to be in a position to discuss all the options,
except to say that we of course would want the strongest possible
action by the (Security) Council to back up the important work of
the U.N. special commission," State Department spokesman James
Rubin told reporters.
Bacon noted that the U.S. aircraft carrier Nimitz and a
protective cordon of warships capable of firing long-range
Tomahawks would arrive in the Gulf this weekend ahead of schedule
on orders from Defense Secretary William Cohen.
Bacon also said the United States had a force of about 20 fighter
jets and two B-1 bombers capable of firing cruise missiles on
temporary duty in nearby Bahrain.
He said U.S. warplanes, including fighters based in Kuwait and
Saudi Arabia, recently began flying closer to the 33rd parallel
some 40 miles south of Baghdad while patroling in the southern
no-fly zone.
The planes, Bacon added, were also flying in larger
concentrations of aircraft in order to better protect the zone
from penetration by the Iraqis.
U.S. forces have launched cruise missiles against Iraqi targets
on several occasions since the 1991 Gulf War, including in 1993
against a Baghdad plant used to fabricate components for nuclear
enrichment material and in 1996 against air defense targets in
southern Iraq.
Pressed by reporters on whether Iraqi incursions into the no-fly
zone in southern Iraq in recent weeks might spark retaliation
other than U.S. attempts to shoot down the Iraqi jets, Bacon
responded:
"I think we have shown in the past that we are prepared to
protect our interests and to enforce the no-fly zone. We have
used a variety of military assets to do that. And I will leave it
at that."
Cohen himself warned earlier Thursday at the Pentagon that the
U.S. military had tightened control over the no-fly zones and
that Iraqi warplanes would "bear the consequences" if they
continued to violate the air spaces.
As for suspected Iraqi weapons sites, the Security Council
intends to discuss on Oct. 16 a report released this week by the
head of the U.N. special commission, Richard Butler. The report
listed a series of incidents of Iraqi interference with
inspections of such sites.
"We will be working with our colleagues on the Security Council
to make sure the strongest possible message is sent to Iraq that
if they don't comply with these requirements, they are never
going to have the (existing U.N.) sanctions lifted," Rubin told a
news briefing.
So far there has been little reaction in New York, with diplomats
saying they doubted further sanctions would be imposed
immediately against Baghdad as the Council, at U.S. urging,
threatened in June.
Iranian jets launched strikes last week against the bases of the
Iranian Mujahideen opposition movement in Iraq and Iraqi aircraft
rose to defend the area, at times violating the no-fly zones in
the process.
But defense officials say Iraqi jets also continue to flit into
the southern zone and back out simply to test U.S. ability to
patrol the area.
Cohen last week ordered the Nimitz to skip a scheduled port call
in Singapore and speed to its destination in the Gulf and to
arrive five days earlier than planned.
The 73,000-ton carrier has about 50 F-14 and F/A-18 combat
aircraft. The United States also has a force of as many as 200
Air Force jets based nearby in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere
in the Gulf.
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"Iraq violating no-fly zone unpunished"
Tuesday October 7 7:18 PM EDT
WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 (UPI)- Despite an increased American presence,
Iraqi warplanes have violated no-fly zones with impunity several
times in the past week, prompting a top White House official to
warn that United Nations forces will act to end those flights.
President Clinton's national security adviser Sandy Berger said
today, "We'll do what is necessary to apply the no-fly zone."
Pentagon spokesman Capt. Mike Doubleday said earlier today:
"There have been violations of the no-fly zone by Iraqi aircraft
but...the (Western) coalition continues to enforce the no-fly
zone and we will do so in the future."
Doubleday would not detail how many times the southern no-fly
zone, intended to protect Kuwait from Iraq, had been penetrated,
beyond using the word "several." He described most of the
incursions as "skirting" the zone, but declined to say why U.S.,
French and British jets have not guarded the zone more zealously,
despite increase sorties in the last week.
Berger, meanwhile, said "a no-fly zone is a no-fly zone," and it
includes any Iranian planes that venture into the U.N.-secured
airspace in southern Iraq. Iranian warplanes reportedly entered
Iraq during skirmishes with anti-Iranian militia based in Iraq.
The United States ordered the aircraft carrier Nimitz to the Gulf
last week, five days earlier than scheduled, and Doubleday said
deployment should represent a clear message to Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein.
He said, "I think the signal of the aircraft carrier going to the
region (and) the constancy of our flights over there make it very
clear that the Iraqis are very restricted in their ability to
carry out flight operations, and if they do carry out flight
operations they risk getting shot down. We've done that in the
past, we stand ready to do it in the future."
The zones were created after the Gulf War to keep Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein's troops from threatening Kuwait to the south and
Kurds in the north.
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"Jews gearing up for Yom Kippur"
By Melissa McCord, the Associated Press.
JERUSALEM (October 9, 1997 4:28 p.m. EDT) -- Swinging live
chickens over their heads to symbolically cast away their sins,
Jews prepared Thursday for Yom Kippur, the holiest day on the
Jewish calendar.
Devout Jews traditionally perform the ritual in the runup to Yom
Kippur, or Day or Atonement, which is marked by fasting and
prayer. Yom Kippur begins at sundown Friday and ends at sundown
Saturday.
In Jerusalem's ultra-Orthodox Mea Shearim neighborhood, men in
thin plastic aprons sold squawking chickens from hundreds of
colored crates stacked in the streets. Men with long black coats,
black hats, beards and side locks rocked back and forth as they
recited blessings.
"On Yom Kippur, you're supposed to dispose of your sins," said
one man, who only gave his first name, Eli, as he swung a chicken
above his head.
His wife Huvy scolded him for holding the chicken by the wings.
"You're supposed to hold it here," she said, pointing to the
bird's legs, which were bound with string.
After the blessing, the chickens were slaughtered with a razor-
sharp knife. Men in rubber boots hosed down the narrow street to
get rid of the blood and feathers.
Many Jews, including those belonging to other streams of
Orthodoxy, reject the practice as barbaric and based on
superstition. They note that rabbis have ruled that cash -- or,
recently, even credit cards -- may be used in the atonement
ritual.
Most of those who do swing the chickens give the birds to a
charity that distributes them to the poor, although some opt to
keep the chicken and donate money instead. The ritual, known as
"kapparot," or sacrifice of atonement, has been practiced since
the Middle Ages.
Bands of small children crowded around the crates, staring at the
chickens. One woman, Rivka, wearing a long purple dress and a
white head scarf, brought her 3-year-old son, Shalom, whose big
blue eyes were transfixed by the birds. "He rarely sees live
animals," she said.
The Ten Days of Penitence begin at the Jewish New Year, or Rosh
Hashana, and culminate in Yom Kippur, when Jews abstain from
food, drink and work.
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"Kuwait says it is now ready to defend itself"
KUWAIT CITY (October 8, 1997 08:46 a.m. EDT) - The Kuwaiti army,
which was virtually wiped out during Iraq's 1990 conquest, is now
ready to defend the borders of the oil-rich emirate, the chief-
of-staff said Wednesday.
"Now we are able to defend our borders with courage and fight to
the last soldier and we have a reserve force at the ready that
can be on the battlefield in 24 hours," said Lt. Gen. Ali al-
Moumen.
Asked by the newspaper Al-Rai Al-Aam if the army was able to
repel an attack, the army chief was more cautious. "That depends
on the size, type and strength of the aggression," he said.
Moumen said the situation on the border was calm with only
routine Iraqi movements, though this could change at any time.
"Therefore, in the Kuwaiti army we are working to maintain a
level of readiness and alertness. This situation will stay until
there is a complete change in the political situation," he said.
"And what also calls for the continuing this state of readiness
is what is happening between Iraq and Iran, and the behavior of
Iraq," he said, without elaborating.
Iran on Sept. 29 staged air raids on Iranian rebel bases in a
"no-fly zone" over southern Iraq patrolled by U.S. and allied
planes. Baghdad has threatened to retaliate to any further
attacks.
Kuwait began a 12-year drive costing $12 billion in 1992 to
rebuild its army, which was swept aside by Iraqi forces Aug. 2,
1990.
The regular army has about 20,000 troops including reserves, but
the emirate still depends for its security on the main 1991
Persian Gulf war coalition partners: the United States, Britain
and France. That coalition expelled Iraqi troops from Kuwait in
1991.
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Chattanooga Free Press
September 16, 1997, Tuesday
"Army Briefing Civilians On Biological Weapons"
By The Associated Press
FREDERICK, Md. -- The Army is taking its expertise in handling
biological weapons such as anthrax and plague and sharing it with
civilians nationwide.
"We still have increasing intelligence reports that countries,
including Iraq, are still manufacturing biological weapons," said
Maj. Julie Pavlin. "After the bombing in Oklahoma City and the
Tokyo subway attack, there's a lot more civilian interest in this
program."
A three-day satellite video conference that was to begin today
reflects rising worries about U.S. medical preparedness for
biological, chemical and nuclear attacks from military foes or
terrorists, producers of the $1 million program said.
It is the first in a planned series of high-tech classes to
better prepare military and civilian health specialists for
nuclear, biological and chemical attacks.
"We have always invited civilians, we just haven't always had
the capability to reach out to them as we are now," said Lt. Col.
Carl Curling of the U.S. Army Office of the Surgeon General in
Washington.
More than 5,000 people were expected to participate in the
interactive program, broadcast live from a Gaithersburg studio
and linked to 300 U.S. sites and Israel. Expected were all 1,500
employees of the VA Medical Center in Oklahoma City who assisted
in the response to the April 1995 bombing that killed 168 people.
In March 1995, a Tokyo subway attack with the nerve gas sarin
left 12 people dead and thousands injured.
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The Washington Times
August 11, 1997, Monday, Final Edition
"Biological terrorism is a real threat"
By Fred Reed
The terrorism racket grows more interesting. What with
trials of terrorists in New York for the bombing of the World
Trade Center, and now the fellows who were going to blow up
Manhattan's subways, things don't look as safe as they might.
A sort of terrorism that hasn't gotten a lot of attention,
but may yet, is bio-terrorism.
Remember the petri dishes of raspberry Jell-O or whatever
that were left outside B'nai B'rith and tied up Washington for
most of a day? And that wasn't even real.
A fellow I know is Steve Hatfill, a medical doctor with years
of experience in the Third World, and therefore with the diseases
to be found there. What would happen, he wonders, if terrorists,
with or without the support of governments like Iraq's, tried to
use diseases as biological weapons against America? How would
they do it? Is it really possible?
Dr. Hatfill has thought carefully about bio- terrorism. He
made some intriguing points. To wit:
There exist at least four reasonably distinct levels of
possible biological attack.
The first is the B'nai B'rith variety, in which no real
organisms are used. ("Hello. This is Abdul. We have put
anthrax in the food at Throckmorton Middle School." In fact,
Abdul hasn't.) We empty public buildings for bomb threats. How
about for anthrax threats? After all, sooner or later one might
be real.
The second level consists in the release of real bacteria or
viruses, but without the intention of infecting many people.
For example, a bad guy might spray plague bacteria around the
men's room in the World Trade Center. Probably only a few people
would get it, and perhaps none would die - but it would take only
one plague case to shut down the entire building, especially if
the bug had been sprayed on several floors. Then the call comes:
"Let our man loose, or we'll do a school."
The third level consists in trying to get a lot of people
sick, and maybe dead, but not necessarily to start a self-
sustaining epidemic. Anthrax spores put into the ventilation
system of a movie theater would do the trick. The result would
be horrendous panic even if only 100 people got sick or died.
After all, if it worked in a theater, what public place would be
safe?
The fourth level consists of a self-sustaining, unstoppable
epidemic sweeping the nation.
While that idea makes good copy, it isn't likely. Most
serious diseases are containable or self-limiting. Some have to
be transmitted by contact, which can be prevented. Others are
spread by coughing, but most don't last long outside the body,
and so on.
The important point is that you don't need a raging epidemic
to paralyze a city. Remember B'nai B'rith.
Dr. Hatfill points out that the comparatively high quality
of American medical facilities doesn't necessarily provide
protection against even a smallish outbreak of nasty diseases.
The first patients would get excellent care in the small
number of places that are set up to handle such diseases. The
ensuing wave of very sick people would swamp the system. They
would not get good care.
How hard, really, would it be to carry out a bio-attack? Not
very, Dr. Hatfill says.
Culturing bacteria is easy and almost universally understood.
Getting the culture past customs would be no problem. You could
almost certainly just carry it in a small bottle in your pocket.
Dr. Hatfill, who is familiar with such things, showed me how
to culture bacteria with supplies that can be bought at Safeway.
A bright high-school student could manage it.
For that matter, nasty bugs indeed can be found wild within
the United States in certain animal populations that don't
transmit them to humanity. Since this isn't a school for
terrorists, I'll let it go at that.
And, Dr. Hatfill says, spending on public health has been
diverted from prevention and control of epidemics to such things
as discovering why certain groups commit suicide more often than
others. Rates of vaccination are down, he says.
Some extraordinarily unpleasant bugs are out there. Some are
old ones traveling by the most dangerous disease vector known - a
Boeing 747. People here do not have the natural resistance to
these diseases that people who live in their regions of origin
have.
Others are emerging diseases about which little is known.
The United States is, he believes, becoming more, not less,
vulnerable to such pathogens.
Few police, in fact few people of any kind, are prepared to
deal with bio-terrorism.
Something to think about, no?
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Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
August 24, 1997, Sunday
"IT CAN HAPPEN HERE"
BY WESLEY W. POSVAR
Americans have been slow to acknowledge that terrorism from
foreign sources can happen here. The World Trade Center bombing
and last month's discovery of a bomb cache in Brooklyn, while
alarming, may still seem like isolated instances to most citizens
across the country.
Two leaders in national security, former assistant secretary
of defense Joseph Nye and former CIA Director James Woolsey, have
called for giving the threat of terrorism with weapons of mass
destruction the highest priority. Their proposal (published in
the Post-Gazette on June 4) should be strongly endorsed and
understood by all Americans.
Two decades ago, Zbigniew Brzezinski, then the national
security adviser, launched an organization to prepare the United
States for terrorist attacks. I was asked to play a role. We
expected then that European and Middle Eastern terrorism would
continue to expand and soon cross the Atlantic. We stood on the
lawn outside the West Wing and looked down the Potomac, where the
enemy at some time could launch a nuclear weapon at the White
House.
Thus began the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The
advisory board included Paul Nitze, Edward Teller, Herman Kahn,
Brent Scowcroft and other leading strategic experts. We
anticipated and examined threats of destruction up to whole
cities and communication networks.
But in the stability provided by nuclear deterrence in the
Cold War, the FEMA mission faded away to what it is now -
hurricanes and earthquakes.
Terrorism captures the national attention from time to time.
The whole story is much more fearsome.
*
The menace is real and imminent. Global stability is greatly
diminished. We have - or should have - anxieties about a possibly
grim future, unforeseen threats shaped by ethnic strife and
hatred, distant regional turmoil and proliferating massive
nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
All of our armed forces, intelligence services and economic
levers must be ready and used as needed for new kinds of
prevention and protection.
History provides a warning. When the victors of a war review
their military policy and purpose, change is seldom the result.
There is a tendency to cling to winning strengths in the face of
the unknown future.
The latest U.S. defense review essentially retains the present
force structure, which brought us through the consummation of the
Cold War: a dozen aircraft carrier battle groups, 13 mobile army
and marine divisions of ground forces, a dozen active air fighter
wings and a very small strategic force of old and new bombers,
plus ICBMs.
Within this vast system, the really relevant strengths now are
for rapid deployment abroad of air and army units, some in one
day direct from the United States, and new super-sensitive
target-seeking weapons.
Secretary of Defense William Cohen does wisely express concern
about urgent nuclear disarmament with Russia, and likely
proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. The
threats now grow in "rogue states," including Iraq, Iran and
Libya, plus others that may sponsor or house terrorist
organizations.
*
There is for Americans a special and perhaps surprising
problem. Pervading all our international perceptions is a
subjective influence that is deeply psychological:
The accustomed suppression of awareness and fear of general
nuclear war/Armageddon.
The basic explanation of this is that the policy of mutual
nuclear deterrence really did work. To the normal citizen,
nuclear war was never seriously contemplated; its likelihood was
virtually zero.
Even to the strategic planner, the prospective scale of
"general" nuclear war was, and even now, is so great that
virtually all planning attention is directed at making
preparedness, warning and response foolproof and certain.
But now there are new horrors that are feasible and thus
thinkable - such as a real possibility of 10 or 20 megatons being
fired or set off by a rogue state, having prepared in secret; or,
more simply, the destruction of New York City by a chemical
weapon of mass destruction, such as anthrax, concealed in a
freighter, covering 100 square miles.
Some of our difficult concerns are bureaucratic preparedness,
pertaining to major organizational structure. For
counterterrorism on a massive scale, we must fully integrate with
out military strengths two other broad sectors of national
security: intelligence, largely existent; and crisis management,
to be developed.
The Central Intelligence Agency does not now fulfill this
need, in part because it is "central." The CIA and the lesser
intelligence agencies must provide information about potential
enemies that is detailed and available at all levels of possible
conflict. It should also have the character of presenting to
decision-makers an undistilled range of threats of varying
nature, however implausible.
Intelligence functions that affect military operations should
be integrated with them, including covert operations, if any.
Probably there should remain a separate but closely supervised
intelligence agency for research and analysis. It should have
open relationships with international and regional experts, most
of whom are in the academic community.
Crisis management will require new national organization.
Crisis planning for anti-terrorism and for surprise attack by
weapons of mass destruction must also be devolved to state and
local government. It must include all feasible national guard and
reserve forces, coordinated with local police, fire and public
health services, for action in the absence of functioning
national government.
Nye and Woolsey call for inter-departmental direction and
oversight. But the effort must be pervasive and will surely be
complex beyond any present specification. In any case, I argue
that both crisis management and intelligence should be
represented on or close to the National Security Council.
Finally, the whole national security establishment, defense,
army, navy, air force, marines, intelligence, and crisis
management should be rained and adapted for the emerging
international missions of "peace-keeping" in its various forms.
The ultimate systems for protecting all mankind from these
horrors will surely involve some kind of international
organization.
The ringing phrase "Remember Pearl Harbor" is memorable as a
call for retribution against an enemy surprise attack. Today it
is relevant, and we hear it again regarding terrorism as a
powerful historical reminder of disastrous surprise, a present
need for continuous and penetrating alert, with ultra-advanced
information technology.
Weapons of mass destruction, if widely used against us by
enemy forces or terrorist covert groups, would be a cataclysmic
reverse of history.
Yet the organized means of prevention are themselves the
avenue to solution -a global, interdependent and mutually
enriched society.
Wesley W. Posvar is former chancellor of the University of
Pittsburgh. A specialist in international security, he has served
in the Pentagon and as a professor at military and Air Force
academies.
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U.P.I. BC cycle
August 5, 1997, Tuesday
"Biowar: panic more deadly than missiles UPI Science News"
An international weapons inspector says that an Iraqi attack
with biological weapons during the Persian Gulf War would have
been militarily ineffective. The inspector adds, however, the
massive panic in the civilian population could have been more
deadly than the weapons themselves. Raymond A. Zilinskas ("zill-
LIN-skus"), a member of the U.N. Special Commission that
investigated Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program, provides
his perspective today in the Journal of the American Medical
Association. Zilinskas says Iraq's biological warfare capability
was not used during the Gulf War. He contends that even though
such an attack would have been militarily ineffective, it still
could have been an effective " terror weapon" against cities or
other civilian targets. In fact, he says the targeted
population's terrified reaction to the missiles would likely have
caused more harm than the missiles themselves. Zilinskas says
the guidance systems on the Iraqi SCUD missiles were too
inaccurate to strike a specific military target, but cities
occupy large areas and could be easily hit. Iraq launched 39
SCUD missiles against Israeli cities during the Gulf War.
Zilinskas says only two of the 11 deaths and only 234 of the
1,049 injuries from these attacks were caused by explosion of the
missiles. Many of the other casualties were due to panic,
including injuries suffered when running from missiles or to
shelters. Also, some frightened victims suffocated when they used
gas masks incorrectly yet refused to take them off.
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The Christian Science Monitor
July 30, 1997, Wednesday
"Missiles Bring War Home"
By Scott Peterson,
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
Advances in range and power put everywhere on the front lines
Etan and his young family will never forget the first time the
air-raid sirens pierced the chill night above Tel Aviv.
Israel's largest city was shaken awake, and with hearts pounding,
the family raced for their basement bomb shelter.
Terrified by the sight of his parents in gas masks, Etan's four-
year-old son at first refused to wear his mask. The child was
sealed into a protective tent that soon ran short of oxygen. He
could only be comforted through rubber gloves affixed to the
side.
It was the peak of the Gulf War in 1991, when an American-led
military coalition was poised to push Iraq's invading Army out of
Kuwait.
Looking for a way of striking back, Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein broke an unwritten rule that had stood in the Middle East
for nearly 20 years: He fired a ballistic missile at Israel.
Risking overwhelming retaliation from Israel's nuclear arsenal,
he fired another Scud missile, and then another.
Huddled in their bomb shelter, Etan's family could hear the
explosive impacts. Before dawn they had fled Tel Aviv, part of
an exodus of thousands. "We are not war heroes," Etan says. "We
were very scared that night, with the helpless feeling of knowing
that we were not protected."
For two decades the threat was always there: Israel had missiles
that could target its adjoining Arab enemies; and they could
target most of Israel in return. So both sides tacitly agreed
never to fire.
Changing the rules
Then Iraq upset the balance. For Israelis, the 39 missiles that
rained down brought a terror they had never known. Strong
pressure from the United States at that time kept Israel from
hitting back, so that the anti-Iraq alliance would not break
apart. But across the Mideast, the message was unmistakable:
Israel was vulnerable.
"There is a balance of terror now, because of what Saddam Hussein
has done," says Reuven Pedatzur, an Israeli missile expert who
taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "There are
no taboos anymore. The whole Arab world saw that we didn't
retaliate, saw the weak spot, and think they can try it."
The lesson was clear in Baghdad. "Iraqi missiles have awakened
the spirit of resistance and defiance among Arabs and Muslims,"
proclaimed the official Al-Jumhouriya newspaper. They had "buried
forever the theory of Israeli security."
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has himself noted that
one of the "primary threats to Israel in coming years is the
massive arming of the Arab armies and Iran in surface-to-surface
missiles...." During the Gulf War, Mr. Netanyahu was caught
during a live CNN television interview by an air-raid siren, and
dramatically put on a gas mask.
There is still no foolproof defense against the ever-improving
ballistic missile. Though missiles were widely used during the
Iran-Iraq conflict of the 1980s - in the "war of the cities"
between Tehran and Baghdad - their dominance in the region has
grown.
Now they are causing an upheaval of the region's strategic
assumptions. As these long-range missiles inevitably improve, so
does the killing power of the chemical and biological warheads
they carry.
A new vulnerability
Today these can be as lethal as some nuclear weapons, though
secret nuclear programs are also under way. Missiles are the most
effective means of delivering such weapons of mass destruction.
For Israel's foes, missiles are the only chance to defeat a far
superior Israeli Air Force.
Israel's small size also has meant using conquered land as a
buffer to create "strategic depth" to shield the Jewish state.
But "as we approach the 21st century, 'strategic depth' has
little meaning," says Shimon Peres, an architect of the Israeli-
Palestinian peace process and former prime minister of Israel.
"Long-range ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction
have turned the home front into the front line."
President Bush made the same point to Congress in 1991, after the
Gulf War. "We have learned in the modern age, geography cannot
guarantee security," he said.
Israeli sources estimate that by 2010, there will be more than
3,000 ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Today's chief threat
comes from technology developed a half-century ago: The Scud
design is based on Germany's World War II V-2 rockets.
Still, today's improving technologies add up to a revolution.
Finding lasting peace will be the greatest challenge, even as
vast and growing arsenals and old animosities point toward more
war.
Israel's quest for security
The ups and downs of the American-brokered Arab-Israeli peace
process are a useful starting point, since Israel has long been
the focus of violence. Though based on a US formula of
exchanging Israeli-occupied Arab land for peace, the process has
faltered lately under Netanyahu's right-wing government.
Since the 1940s, Arab states have refused to acknowledge Israel's
right to exist. Egypt's President Gamal Abdel Nasser famously
declared in 1956, "The Arab national aim is the elimination of
Israel."
Five major wars have been fought to wipe out the fledgling Jewish
state - or for Israel to add more land to its "strategic depth."
"The Israeli map extending from the Suez Canal to the Golan was
seen by many of our citizens as a guarantee of security and
stability," wrote Abba Eban, a former foreign minister, in the
Jerusalem Post recently. " Butâ Israel has never known less
security than during the period of the 'Big Map.' "
Israel's formidable arsenal
To ensure its survival, Israel has created a formidable arsenal.
Its Army - with more combat-ready heavy divisions than NATO can
deploy in Europe, according to one analysis - is among the most
efficient in the world.
Israel also has chemical and biological weapons, a nuclear
"deterrent" believed to number as many as 200 warheads, and an
official American commitment that Israel's war machine will
always have a "qualitative edge" over its Arab foes. But Israel's
increasing vulnerability to missiles will make that edge tough to
maintain.
There are also geographic disadvantages: At one point Israel is
little more than a strip of beach along the Mediterranean Sea,
just nine miles wide.
"More missiles and possible nuclear weapons are incentives for
peace deals," says Zeev Maoz, head of the Jaffee Center for
Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University. "But the military must
think of the worst-case scenario and assume that at some point
peace will again be violated."
Cause for concern
Critics charge that Israel is obsessed with its own security,
living with a siege mentality that does not respect the
legitimate security needs of other countries. "Israel makes so
much fuss about missiles and Scuds, but a lot of it is made-up
propaganda," says Mohamed el-Sayed Said of the Center for
Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo.
But considering that Iraq's missile threat was also dismissed
before the
Gulf War, many say that Israel - and the Middle East - has
reasons to worry:
* Syria: Taking its cue from the Gulf War, and to counter
Israel's nuclear arsenal, Syria has doubled the number of its
missile launchers and tripled the capability of its warheads. It
can target all of Israel with chemical and biological weapons.
Its vast conventional forces, by contrast, are largely obsolete.
* Iran: Growing evidence suggests that Iran - the Islamic state
that Washington considers the top supporter of global terrorism -
is secretly improving its missile arsenal with purchases from
Russia, North Korea, China, and Germany. One source, The Iran
Brief, based in Kensington, Md., claims that Iran is also
developing a "Zelzal-3" missile with more than triple the range.
* Egypt: A leaked CIA report last year expressed alarm about
illegal Egyptian imports of advanced Scud C missile parts from
North Korea. The Scud C would enable Cairo to hit targets
throughout Israel. Egyptian officials say this was a "phony
crisis" created by Israel to bolster its own arguments for top-
of-the-line American hardware.
* Iraq: Despite a six-year United Nations effort to destroy
Iraq's ballistic missiles - along with its nuclear, chemical, and
biological weapons programs -Iraq could resume production within
a month,recent reports claim . Iraqi tactics have included hiding
missile-guidance gyroscopes in the mud at the bottom of a Tigris
River canal in Baghdad.
Saudi Arabia: Largely unnoticed, Saudi Arabia has the missile
with the longest range of all in the region, the Chinese CSS-2,
which could reach Rome. China is taking its own CSS-2s out of
active service, however, and the aging Saudi version is expected
to be obsolete in a few years. Though Saudi Arabia is a strong US
ally, two bomb attacks against US military personnel there have
left 26 people dead and raised questions about Saudi Arabia's
long-term political direction.
Lebanon: Israel's Army chief has claimed that Iran-backed
Hizbullah guerrillas fighting Israeli troops in southern Lebanon
have acquired long-range Katyusha rockets that pose a
"significant threat." Syria also backs Hizbullah, but Western
military sources in Lebanon discount the claim.
Libya: Though rarely deemed a missile threat because of its
disorganized programs, Libya was named in a secret NATO report
published by the Spanish newspaper El Mundo last November as
possibly having ballistic missiles with a range of 600 to 1,800
miles by 2006.
Israel: The Jewish state itself has the most sophisticated
missile arsenal in the region. It can fit any of its long-range
Jericho 2 missiles with enhanced nuclear and chemical warheads,
an escalation that prompted Moscow, at the peak of the cold war
in 1987, to ominously declare it a "direct challenge to the
Soviet Union."
Israel's Shavit II rocket - designed for launching satellites
into space - can also be "modified for military purposes and
converted into a powerful ballistic missile," according to the
London-based monthly newsletter Jane's Sentinel.
Israel has also shown that it can carry out air strikes across
the region virtually unimpeded. Its jet fighters destroyed a
nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981, and struck Palestine Liberation
Organization headquarters in Tunis - 1,550 miles away - in 1985.
Added to its state-of-the-art weapons of mass destruction, this
capability poses both a threat and a deterrent to Israel's
neighbors. But Israel still has no effective missile defense.
"You have to shoot a lot of missiles into Israel before you can
walk over and take it. But the possibilityâ will change the
balance of power with a new threat," says one US Army missile
expert in the Persian Gulf.
"Ballistic missiles have become an instrument of terror, a
publicity piece. Israel has to consider that they are the weapon
of the future."
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