| Spirit Of Truth | Stock Market Update | Unreported Truth |
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"The harvest in the Mother of Battles has succeeded...
the greater harvest and its yield
will be in the time to come..."
(comment by Saddam Hussein following the Gulf War)
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"The Arab countries should be asking themselves,
'Who will fire the 40th missile against Israel?'"
-Saddam Hussein
(From a speech he gave on the fourth anniversary
of the start of the Gulf War.)
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"We are ready to sacrifice our blood and our soul to Saddam
and Iraq," the Gaza demonstrators shouted. "You need to
send your rockets to Tel Aviv!"
AP, "Palestinians Show Support for Iraq", 11/10/97
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"It's just literally impossible to imagine
what goes into (Saddam's) convoluted and tortured mind."
Mike McCurry, White House Press Secretary, 11/4/97
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"Even if some of our coalition partners don't join us, we
should act militarily if Iraq won't back down."
Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey, 11/12/97
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"If we go into another military conflagration we
should make sure that it's a very stern one, very serious.
Certainly I would like to see him (Saddam) taken out."
Senator Trent Lott, Republican leader of the Senate, 11/12/97
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"Actions involving force or threat of use of force
could wipe out all of our achievements."
Russia's U.N. Ambassador Sergei Lavrov, 11/12/97
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Since Saddam Hussein's latest provocations are so blatant, it is rather obvious that he's intentionally picking a fight with the U.S. The question that needs to be answered is: Why?
The media is speculating that Saddam's motive is to divide the Security Council. Given that Russia, China, Egypt and France abstained from voting on behalf of the October 23rd U.N. resolution threatening new sanctions against Iraq, it seems that Saddam is seeking to confront the hard U.S. line against his country in a way that will effectively divide and conquer international resolve to maintain economic sanctions against Iraq.
The problem with this explanation, however, is that Iraq's newest provocations are helping to consolidate international resolve to continue sanctions against Iraq as reflected by the new sanctions resolution approved unanimously by the U.N. Security Council today. Thus, Saddam is either blundering such that he's bringing about the opposite end he's seeking to achieve, or the Iraqi leader has different plans than most people expect. The odds are the latter possibility is what's relevant here.
Saddam is most likely not acting alone right now. The literally unbelievable Russian and Arab support of the U.S.-led Gulf War against Iraq in 1991 has now disappeared. Both the Russians and Arabs are urging that no military action be taken against Iraq in response to Saddam's new breach of the ceasefire agreement. Most might pass-off the change in the stance of Russia and Arab countries as a consequence of Russia's need to make lucrative oil deals with Iraq and a growing hardline sentiment amongst Arabs against Israel and the U.S. because of stalled Middle East peace efforts. In reality, however, Russia and the Arab powers are calling for restraint because they want to distance themselves from being blamed for causing what they already know is going to happen next:
There was, is and will continue to be a major connection between Iraq and Russia. Consider, for instance, the following excerpt from "The Persian Gulf Deception" (references & epilogue):
In a New Republic article, 'Virtual Ally: What's the Soviet Game in the Gulf', which came out just after the Persian Gulf Crisis erupted, Edward Jay Epstein, an expert on Soviet intelligence, asked the provocative question:
| "Did the USSR have advance knowledge of well-designed Iraqi plans to invade Kuwait? After all, unlike the United States, the Soviet Union had military advisers in Iraq attached to the helicopter, tank, logistic, and radar units used for the invasion, and the KGB presumably had developed sources from the three generations of Iraqi staff and planning officers trained by Moscow?" (51) |
As for consent, according to Claudia Wright of 'Foreign Affairs', in the 1980's the U.S. State Department thought of Saddam Hussein as "so beholden to the Soviet Union as to be incapable of autonomous foreign policy" (52). Given how dependent Iraq was on the Soviets- particularly in building up and maintaining its military strength, and given Saddam's Stalinist, pro-Soviet mind-set, it's unlikely Baghdad would have ever pulled-off a stunt as reckless and potentially costly as invading Kuwait without first seeking Moscow's approval. This is particularly true since it would have been nearly impossible to develop and carry out such plans without the Soviets noticing.
All in all, there is good reason to believe California Senator Bill Richardson who remarked, "there is little doubt that the Soviets were apprised of the invasion before it happened, helped plan it and approved it. There is no way communist puppet Saddam Hussein would have given the order to invade Kuwait if it were not sanctioned by Gorbachev (53)."
Now consider the following excerpt from an editorial I wrote in 1993 dubbed "A Time For War":
There has been strong indications that Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War were part of a large-scale deception being engineered by Russia. Iraq and Russia had been close allies for some thirty years going into the invasion, and it thus makes sense that Moscow has been behind Saddam Hussein's seemingly irrational actions from day one.
The strong alliance that developed between Moscow and Baghdad during the 1970's and 1980's can be directly attributed to the personal efforts of Saddam Hussein. Saddam played a principal role in forging an Iraqi 'Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation' with Russia in 1972, and when Saddam took over power in 1979, he signed an agreement on military cooperation and strategic consultation with then Soviet Defense Minister Ustinov. During the 1980's the Soviets helped Saddam consolidate his power and built Iraq into a regional military superpower. Given the deep and dependent relationship he formed with Moscow, it is clear Saddam would have never pulled-off a stunt as reckless as invading Kuwait and challenging the West without the Kremlin's approval.
The reality, however, is that Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was not only approved by Russia, it was planned and carried out under the orders and supervision of Moscow. During the six months prior to the invasion, Soviet arms deliveries to Iraq accelerated to twice the rate of the 1980's when Iraq was in an all-out war with Iran. Two weeks before the invasion, the Soviets launched a military reconnaisance satellite over the Gulf and sent one of their top generals to Iraq along with a small expert staff. This general and his delegation, along with the 8,000 Soviet personnel that were already in Iraq, provided direct 'Quality Edge' military assistance to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Soviet assistance in planning and executing the invasion was made clear by the surprising similarity of the operation to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.
In the aftermath of the invasion, Moscow did everything it took to open the way for a Western-led attack against Saddam Hussein's forces but continued to underhandedly support its Iraqi ally. Even though it clearly went against Soviet strategic interests, Moscow, for the first time in post-war history, cooperated with the West in the United Nations so that a U.S.-led military coalition could launch a war to free Kuwait from Iraqi occupation. Meanwhile, the Soviets continued to send arms to Iraq in violation of an international embargo, they fed Iraq intelligence on Western forces building up in the Gulf, and Soviet personnel helped the Iraqis jam eavesdropping by Western aircraft.
With the Gulf War, Moscow continued to work behind the scenes with Iraq. The Soviets continued to underhandedly ship arms to Iraq and, as the National Defense Council Foundation later reported, Soviet personnel were "all over the place" on the battlefield. Russian language military communiques were persistently heard on Iraqi radio networks; Soviet technicians "continued to tune radars, fix tanks and planes and advise (Iraqi) combat units down to the battalion level"; and the Soviets supplied targeting information to Iraq and had their personnel "help the Iraqis fire SCUD missiles at Israel and Saudi Arabia".
Given that Iraq is working in cahoots with Russia, the question is: What are these two powers, armed to the teeth with weapons of mass destruction, up to? The answer likely has everything to do with the use of weapons of mass destruction.
The Russians and Arab powers realized long ago that fighting and winning a war against Israel, America and the Western powers would inevitably require full-scale use of weapons of mass destruction. However, to win popular support for taking control of the world after the dust settles from a third world war, it would be necessary to shift blame for any holocaust of mass destruction on to the West as much as possible. Thus, Saddam Hussein took on the role of falling victim to American "imperialism" in the Middle East.
By provoking the Gulf War and continuing economic sanctions against Iraq, Saddam Hussein has maximized the image that his country is a victim of relentless U.S. repression and military aggression in the oil-rich Mideast. Furthermore, since Saddam now seems cornered, he has a pretext for responding in a seemingly irrational way to new U.S. military action against Iraq. In other words, the stage is now set such that Iraq can use weapons of mass destruction and America will be blamed for pushing Saddam Hussein too far. Specifically, one should expect Iraq to retaliate for new U.S. attacks by, at the least, launching chemical/biotoxin SCUD missiles against Israel .
If Saddam uses weapons of mass destruction against Israel and/or other Western-related targets, obviously all hell will break loose. In particularly, extremely violent Israeli retaliation against Iraq will likely occur, possibly involving a nuclear strike against Baghdad or some other Iraqi target(s). Israeli retaliation, in turn, can be used as a pretext for the Arabs, and Syria in particularly, to go to war with Israel- something Syria clearly has been aggressively preparing for in recent months (including the arming of Syrian SCUD missiles with chemical warheads).
Once an all-out war erupts in the Middle East, it doesn't take too much foresight to see how this may give rise to an all-out third world war. Moscow will come to the support of Russia's Arab allies while the U.S. will back-up Israel; a dangerous superpower confrontation will occur where missiles and weapons of mass destruction are already in use. In the context of such an explosive international crisis (which will likely involve other ingredients like a staged hardline coup in Moscow), Russia can unleash its long-planned nuclear attack against America and the Western powers and thereby militarily defeat the West and dominate the world.
Thus, the trick of it is that, in the context of the newest crisis concerning Iraq, Saddam can set-off a global war that will bring about his long-stated ambition of the destruction of Israel and the U.S., and the disaster will appear to be America's own fault. Since the U.S. will most likely be acting militarily on its own against Iraq nowadays (maybe with Britian), Iraq's response and the associated consequences will be attributed to reckless American aggression in the Middle Eastern tinder box. If Saddam responds to unilateral U.S. military action against Iraq by using weapons of mass destruction against Israel, the whole region will be ignited and the U.S. will be blamed. Likewise, when the conflict gives rise to a global nuclear war that results in the destruction of America and the Western powers (or at least Britian), the holocaust of worldwide mass destruction will still be attributed to Washington's recklessly aggressive foreign policy. Russia, the true instigator of the war, will wrongly appear blame-free.
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SADDAM'S SECRET ALLY: IRAQ & RUSSIA
RELATED ARTICLES
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"Russian Parliament Backs Iraq in U.N. Dispute"
Friday November 14 11:07 AM EST
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's opposition-dominated parliament
passed a resolution on Friday backing Iraq in its standoff with
the United Nations and urged President Boris Yeltsin to push for
aid flights to evacuate sick children.
Hours later, Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev said he saw no need
to resort to force to resolve the dispute over Iraq's expulsion
of American weapons inspectors.
"There is enough sober-mindedness around to resolve the situation
in Iraq without military intervention," the minister told a news
conference at Interfax news agency.
The State Duma lower house of parliament, dominated by Communists
and nationalists, passed a resolution saying Iraq had fulfilled
practically all the U.N. resolutions and was meeting its
obligations to destroy illegal weapons.
Calling on Yeltsin to prod the Security Council on lifting U.N.
sanctions on Iraq, the Duma statement, which has no binding
force, urged him to avoid force in resolving the crisis.
"The State Duma...resolves to recommend to the President of the
Russian Federation that he take all necessary measures not to
allow the use of any military force against the Republic of
Iraq," the document said.
Also on Friday, Interfax cited a source in the foreign ministry
as saying Washington would find itself isolated if it used force
against Iraq.
"The use of military force by the United States against Iraq
would be a unilateral action, all responsibility for the
consequences of which would lie with the Americans," Interfax
said, citing an unnamed source.
The Duma document, approved by a vote of 259 in favour to 37
against, also urged the government to recommend that the Security
Council allow aid flights to Iraq and the evacuation of children
in need of emergency medical attention.
The resolution also called on the president to demand an
objective attitude to Iraq from U.S. representatives on the U.N.
disarmament commission, and respect for the sovereignty, security
and dignity of the Iraqi people.
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"Moscow Builds Bunkers Against Nuclear Attack"
By Bill Gertz
April 1st, 1997
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Russia is continuing a Cold War-era program to build deep
underground bunkers, subways and command posts to help Moscow's
leaders flee the capital and survive a nuclear attack, The
Washington Times has learned.
Among the ambitious projects: a secret subway being built
directly to the residence of Russian President Boris Yeltsin
outside Moscow.
"The underground construction appears larger than previously
assessed," a CIA report labeled "top secret" reported two weeks
ago.
"Three decrees last year on an emergency planning authority under
Yeltsin with oversight of underground facility construction
suggest that the purpose of the Moscow-area projects is to
maintain continuity of leadership during nuclear war."
A copy of the report was obtained by The Washington Times from
defense sources. A CIA spokesman declined to comment.
Disclosure of the secret multibillion-dollar construction program
comes less than two weeks after President Clinton and Mr. Yeltsin
agreed in Helsinki to extend the deadline for nuclear arms cuts
under the START II treaty because of Russian concerns over
"dismantlement costs."
U.S. officials said the Russian spending on strategic defenses,
coupled with ongoing procurement of new strategic missiles and
submarines, raises questions about Moscow's claims not to have
funds needed to carry out START II reductions.
The outlays also raise new worries among some U.S. officials
about whether U.S. aid to Russia is allowing Moscow to spend its
money on building new strategic forces and facilities.
"How can the United States be so gullible to accept Russian
claims that it doesn't have the money to comply with START II
when it's made the decision to modernize its forces and build
these underground facilities?" asked one U.S. government defense
official.
According to the CIA report, construction work is continuing on a
"nuclear-survivable, strategic command post at Kosvinsky
Mountain," located deep in the Ural Mountains about 850 miles
west of Moscow. Satellite photographs of Yamantau Mountain, also
located about 850 miles west of Moscow in the Urals near the town
of Beloretsk, show continued digging at the "deep underground
complex" and new construction at each of the site's above-ground
support areas, the CIA stated. Yamantau Mountain means "Evil
Mountain" in the local Bashkir langauge.
"The command post at Kosvinsky appears to provide the Russians
with the means to retaliate against a nuclear attack," the CIA
report said. "The rationale for the Yamantau complex is unclear."
According to the CIA report, the Russians are building or
renovating four complexes within Moscow that would be used to
house senior Russian government leaders during a nuclear strike.
A map published in the report showed new subway construction
under way from Victory Park Station in Moscow to Mr. Yeltsin's
dacha, some 13 miles west of the Kremlin and about four miles
from the Moscow Ring Road.
Additionally, the CIA report stated that a bunker for Russian
leaders at Voronovo, about 46 miles south of Moscow, is nearly
complete. A second bunker located at Sharapovo, some 34 miles
from Moscow, has a special underground subway running directly to
it.
The subway system for Russian leaders allows for "rapid
evacuation of leaders during wartime from Moscow," the CIA said.
Presumably, the leadership would then be flown to the Yamantau or
Kosvinsky complexes. According to the report, Mr. Yeltsin and
Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin endorsed the construction of
the bunkers, subways and command posts, and funding for the
Yamantau facility was listed for the first time this year in the
Russian federal budget.
Peter Pry, a former CIA analyst and author of a new book on
Russian nuclear operations, said the continued construction of
the Russian strategic defense sites is ominous and cannot be
dismissed by U.S. officials as "inertia" from Cold War-era
strategic policies.
"It shows they take the threat of nuclear war so seriously that
they're willing to spend scarce resources on it," Mr. Pry said,
adding that he was not familiar with the CIA report. "These
things are tying down billions of dollars in rubles that could go
into other enterprises the Russians need -- for example,
providing housing for Russian military officers."
Mr. Pry said Russian press reports say the underground facility
at Yamantau Mountain covers an area as large as the Capital
Beltway. The Clinton administration has been providing hundreds
of millions of dollars in U.S. aid to Russia to help Moscow
dismantle its nuclear arsenal.
Despite the aid, the CIA report shows that the Russians are
building both defensive and offensive strategic facilities and
weapons, including a new type of long-range strategic missile and
a new strategic missile submarine.
Russian Defense Minister Igor Rodionov said in February that both
the reliability and control of Russian nuclear weapons were in
question because of the deterioration of the armed forces, but
Pentagon officials have dismissed the statements as posturing by
Mr. Rodionov in a bid to boost his budget.
Mr. Pry said the Russian construction program also shows that
Russian leaders do not see a diminished threat of nuclear
conflict. "This is a manifestation of the Russians' continued
war-fighting attitudes," Mr. Pry said. "They believe in the idea
that you can survive and prevail in a nuclear conflict. These
kinds of facilities are designed to survive for weeks and
months."
By contrast, U.S. nuclear protective facilities have been largely
shut down. The complex underneath the Greenbriar resort in
Virginia was abandoned, along with another facility in Virginia
known as Mount Weather, U.S. officials have said.
The main nuclear command facility now in existence is located
inside Cheyenne Mountain, Colo., but it was only designed to
withstand small nuclear blasts and would easily be knocked out in
a large Russian missile attack.
By contrast, there are no nuclear weapons currently in the U.S.
arsenal capable of damaging the new Russian strategic defense
facilities.
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Los Angeles Times
October 10, 1997, Friday
"SADDAM'S SECRET WEAPON IS WORSE THAN IMAGINED;
ARMS: A MYSTERIOUS MISSILE FIRED AT ISRAEL
HAD ONLY TO HINT AT BIOLOGICAL
WARFARE TO PERSUADE BUSH TO END THE GULF WAR."
BY AVIGDOR HASELKORN
(Avigdor Haselkorn, a strategic analyst, has recently completed
a, book on the role of mass destruction weapons in the Gulf War.)
In the aftermath of the Gulf War, the spread of mass
destruction weapons and long-range missiles in the Middle East
has accelerated. The buildup of chemical and biological weapons
arsenals by rogue regimes is readily observed and is directly
traceable to Operation Desert Storm. This is the real, undeniable
Gulf War syndrome.
How can we explain such adverse results from a war fought
under the banner of the "new world order" and aimed to disarm the
nuclear, chemical and biological capabilities of a dangerous
dictator?
Recent information indicates that the Middle East came
remarkably close to the brink of disaster in 1991. In the early
morning hours of Feb. 25, a strangely armed Iraqi missile landed
in southern Israel. It was an Hijarah, an Iraqi variant of the
Soviet Scud B, topped with a concrete and metal warhead. Israeli
military intelligence suspected that it might have been a
primitive biological warhead.
The incident left U.S. decision makers, especially Gen. Colin
Powell, in a quandary. Although there was no agreement among
intelligence analysts as to the meaning of the "stone age" Scud,
the possibility that it was a warning shot on Saddam Hussein's
part could not be dismissed. President Bush knew that if an
unconventional warhead fell inside an Israeli city, the
retaliation would be swift, possibly even with nuclear weapons.
If the missile carried a biological warfare payload of, for
example, anthrax agent, it could have caused heavy casualties. It
was unclear whether the Iraqis had the warhead technology to
spray the spores in the air as an invisible aerosol, which could
be inhaled. But, U.S. defense intelligence warned, "effective
dissemination of the agent was not even necessary if a biological
weapon warhead were to be used as a terror weapon against
civilian populations."
The president knew that even if he allowed the Israelis to
intervene in western Iraq to neutralize the Scud threat, there
was no guarantee that they would be completely successful.
Moreover, the missile appeared to have been fired from deep
inside Iraq, which would have greatly expanded the search area.
Under these circumstances, Bush had little choice but to
abruptly order the "suspension" of hostilities, in effect
submitting to Iraqi strategic blackmail.
Bush can blame his military planners for this sorry outcome of
the war. Not only was there an almost catastrophic intelligence
failure in the Gulf, for example with regard to locating Iraq's
chemical/biological weapons cache, but the missiles kept coming
despite claims by coalition pilots of total kills that amounted
to 300% of the entire Iraqi inventory. After the second salvo
into Israel, the CIA warned, "We cannot rule out that Iraq will
escalate to strategic i.e., countercity, including civilian
targets chemical attacks--perhaps during its next strike."
Saddam Hussein did not resort to his mass destruction option
because those were last-resort weapons. However, intelligence in
both Israel and the U.S. estimated long before the war had
started that when the chips were down, Saddam would use those
weapons without hesitation.
When the ground war started on Feb. 23 and Iraq's defenses
crumbled, the door to Baghdad was wide open. Jerusalem and
Washington both expected that Saddam would take drastic action.
Israel's defense minister Moshe Arens on Feb. 27 phoned Richard
Cheney, his American counterpart, to warn that Saddam could
resort to chemical warfare against Israel "exactly now."
Accordingly, Arens said, "Israel must take action to neutralize
this threat." This assessment and Israel's preparations to enter
the war undoubtedly played a major role in Bush's decision later
that day to end the fighting.
In hindsight, the intelligence conception of Saddam's last-
resort strategy, the prevalence of which was unaffected by the
controversy over the Hijarah, seems to have been vindicated.
Before Desert Storm, Saddam armed 191 weapons, including 25
warheads, with anthrax agent, botulinum toxin and aflatoxin. Rolf
Ekeus, then chairman of the U.N. Special Commission for the
disarmament of Iraq, said: "Their use, which seemed to have been
possible at any time, would have killed millions of people."
Unless the war ended when it did, unless Bush heeded Powell's
warning against fighting past the "rational calculation," the
Middle East would have likely plunged into a full scale mass
destruction exchange between Iraq and Israel.
But stopping the war entailed a steep price. The conflict left
Saddam on his throne, and it also convinced Iran, Syria, Libya
and North Korea that mass destruction weapons and long-range
missiles are the new praetorian guard. Increasingly, low-
tech/low-cost chemical and biological arms are seen as
instrumental for exercising political blackmail and shielding
terrorist activity. Little wonder that a "Club MAD" (for mass
destruction) has emerged with rogue countries helping each other
develop the most deadly capabilities and the means to deliver
them. They aim not only to hold Israeli, Saudi and South Korean
cities hostage, but in due course Japanese and European as well.
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"Israelis Upgrade Gas Masks"
By Jack Katzenell
Associated Press Writer
Tuesday, November 4, 1997; 8:55 a.m. EST
JERUSALEM (AP) -- Many Israelis are rushing to upgrade their gas
masks as tensions mount between the United States and Iraq over
U.N. weapons inspections.
The United States has warned Iraq against making good on threats
to expel American members of the U.N. inspection teams.
Since the crisis began last week, there has been a sharp increase
in the number of Israelis exchanging the gas mask kits they
received during the 1991 Persian Gulf War -- complete with
syringes containing antidotes for nerve gas -- for new, better
ones.
``We should be prepared,'' said Baruch Satir, who was picking up
a new mask in Jerusalem. ``It is like a poker game, because you
never know what will happen. The situation in the region is
getting hot.''
Under the normal procedure, the kits are exchanged every few
years. The Yediot Ahronot newspaper said that as many as 6,000
people a day have been calling the distribution centers, compared
to about 2,000 a day before the crisis.
Meanwhile, the aircraft carrier USS George Washington anchored in
the Israeli port of Haifa. It was accompanied by the missile
cruiser South Carolina and the nuclear submarine Memphis, all
from the Sixth Fleet, for what U.S. officials said was a routine
recreation visit.
Iraq has ordered all Americans in the U.N. inspection team to
leave its territory by Wednesday. The inspectors are trying to
verify that Iraq has eliminated its weapons of mass destruction -
- a condition imposed by the U.N. Security Council to lift
economic sanctions imposed because of Iraq's 1990 occupation of
Kuwait.
During the Gulf War, in which a U.S.-led coalition drove Iraqi
soldiers from Kuwait, Israeli cities were bombarded by Iraq with
Scud missiles. At the time, Israeli military authorities feared
the missiles might be armed with chemical warheads and
distributed gas masks.
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"Israel Would Retaliate Vs. Attack"
By Karin Laub
Associated Press Writer
Friday, November 14, 1997; 10:11 a.m. EST
JERUSALEM (AP) -- Israel will retaliate if it is attacked by
Iraq, the deputy defense minister warned today, and a newspaper
reported that the government had relayed the same message to
Saddam Hussein this week.
The tough statements came despite reported appeals from the
United States for Israel to keep a low profile as Washington
tries to bring Arab states into an international coalition
against Iraq.
Washington, which put together such an alliance in the 1991
Persian Gulf War, may find it more difficult this time around
because of the deadlock in the Mideast peace talks, for which
Arab states blame Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
``The Americans believe that the prime minister's policies are
weakening America's stature in the Arab world and hampering its
efforts to enlist the support of Arab states against Saddam,''
wrote commentator Hemi Shalev in the Maariv daily newspaper.
During the Gulf War, Israel was the first target of Iraqi Scud
missiles, but under U.S. pressure it refrained from striking
back.
In the current crisis, which escalated Thursday with Iraq
expelling American weapons inspectors, Israel would react
differently, said Silvan Shalom, the deputy defense minister.
``Israel can't just sit back and do nothing if attacked,'' Shalom
told Israel army radio.
However, Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai said Thursday that
Israel would coordinate its movements with the United States, and
that there was no reason for concern. On Thursday, U.S. Defense
Secretary William Cohen called Mordechai to discuss the crisis.
Moshe Arens, Israel's defense minister during the Gulf War, said
today that Israel made a mistake in 1991 when it did not
retaliate against Iraq's missile attacks. ``I think our situation
is better today, and it is clear that it is impossible to attack
Israel without expecting an appropriate response,'' he told
Israel radio.
The statements came despite what the Maariv newspaper said was a
request by the United States that Israel stay out of the
conflict. An Israeli Foreign Ministry official, speaking on
condition of anonymity, confirmed today that the ministry has
advised Israeli diplomats to keep a low profile on the U.S.-Iraq
showdown.
Israel's infrastructures minister, Ariel Sharon, made clear to
Iraq earlier this week that his country would not stand back if
attacked this time, the Yediot Ahronot daily newspaper said.
Sharon, a former defense minister, delivered the message via
Jordan's Crown Prince Hassan, Yediot said.
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The Irish Times
"Israel unlikely to stand idly by this time"
By David Horovitz, managing editor of the Jerusalem Report
Today, as was the case seven years ago, Palestinian demonstrators
are delightedly urging President Saddam Hussein to stand firm
against US-led pressure and to launch his missiles at Israel,
David Horovitz writes from Jerusalem.
Today, as seven years ago, Israeli defence officials are telling
their citizens there is no cause for alarm and Israel has no part
in the UN's dispute with Iraq.
But much has changed since Saddam fired 39 Scud missiles at
central Israel in a vain attempt to turn the Gulf War into an
Arab-Israeli conflict. Although hundreds of Palestinians
demonstrated in Gaza and the West Bank yesterday, burning US
flags and pledging to "sacrifice our blood and our soul" for
Saddam, Mr Yasser Arafat was hardly about to encourage them.
During the Gulf War, he threw in his lot with Saddam - a
misguided strategy that cost thousands of Palestinians their jobs
in Kuwait, put a halt to Saudi funding for the Palestinian
struggle and brought the PLO to the brink of collapse.
Then living in frustrated exile in Tunis, Mr Arafat now presides
over an elected Palestinian administration in Gaza whose future
depends largely on how much pressure Washington is prepared to
exert on Israel for further territorial compromise.
Israel, led at the time by the ultra-cautious Likud prime
minister, Mr Yitzhak Shamir, heeded US advice and sat out the
Gulf War. Mr Shamir resisted considerable pressure from among his
own ministers to send Israeli fighter planes into Iraq and halt
the Scud attacks.
Disappointed to see Saddam survive the war, Israel has spent the
years since then trying to develop a hugely-expensive anti-
missile protection system in partnership with the US -without
conspicuous success to date and, reportedly, hatching clandestine
plots to assassinate the Iraqi dictator.
In recent days, the Israeli press has been full of reports
highlighting Iraq's purported biological and chemical weapons
capabilities, and the headlines have prompted a rush by Israelis
to upgrade the gas masks they used seven years ago. The Defence
Minister, Mr Yitzhak Mordechai, has been urging his people not to
panic; the air force commander yesterday insisted that the
dispute was "not connected with us".
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"Palestinians Show Support for Iraq"
By Ibrahim Barzak
Associated Press Writer
Monday, November 10, 1997; 6:22 p.m. EST
GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) -- Hundreds of Palestinians in the
West Bank and Gaza rallied in support of Iraq on Monday, burning
U.S. flags and waving pictures of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
About 500 demonstrators marched in Gaza City and another 400
marched in the West Bank town of Ramallah.
"We are ready to sacrifice our blood and our soul to Saddam and
Iraq," the Gaza demonstrators shouted. "You need to send your
rockets to Tel Aviv!"
In Ramallah, marchers called out, "Saddam, go forward -- we are
with you!" and "Saddam, bring out the explosives and the
missiles!"
The marches came as Iraq and the United States were locked in a
standoff over Iraq's weeklong barring of U.N. weapon-inspection
teams that include Americans.
The Security Council imposed economic sanctions on Iraq after
Saddam sent his forces into Kuwait in 1990, touching off the 1991
Persian Gulf War.
Iraq has said that American weapons inspectors working with the
United Nations are spies trying to prolong U.N. economic
sanctions.
A statement from the Palestinian legislative council called for
an end to "American aggression" against Iraq.
The statement said that through sanctions imposed on Iraq, Sudan
and Libya, the United States was "bringing an atmosphere of war
to the area and the world."
The Iraq crisis poses a diplomatic dilemma for Palestinian leader
Yasser Arafat, who was an outspoken supporter of Saddam during
the Gulf War.
The current dispute comes at a time when Arafat's Palestinian
Authority is hoping U.S. pressure will help move ahead the peace
talks with Israel.
During the Gulf War, when Iraq fired 39 Scud missiles at Israel,
and many Israelis were angered by enthusiastic Palestinian
backing of Iraq.
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'PA hiding Saddam's arms secrets'
Thursday, November 6, 1997
By JAY BUSHINSKY
JERUSALEM (November 6) - The Palestinian Authority's embassy in
Baghdad is being used as a repository for secret documents that
relate to Iraq's buildup of unconventional weapons, Iraqi
opposition sources said yesterday.
They said the site's diplomatic immunity evidently keeps the
documents beyond the reach of UN arms inspectors.
The documents relate to the purchase of raw materials required
for Iraq's manufacture and deployment of weapons of mass
destruction, a senior figure in the underground movement to
overthrow President Saddam Hussein said.
He attributed his knowledge of the documents' contents to
"sources inside Iraqi intelligence."
PA Chairman Yasser Arafat's political adviser Nabil Amr said, "I
have no idea about this information."
Asked if it was conceivable that the embassy could be used to
hide sensitive Iraqi documents, he declined to comment.
The PA embassy is situated in Arafat's private residence in
Baghdad, a heavily guarded palatial structure well inside a
compound.
"The material is in Yasser Arafat's house," the Iraqi exile said.
"It's a fact."
One of the Iraqi opposition groups' American sympathizers, who
worked with them in London from 1991 to 1994 and recently resumed
activity on their behalf in Washington, said the hidden documents
refer to Iraq's chemical weapons, VX nerve gas, "and possibly
nuclear arms."
Arafat's residence, "which has just been designated as the PA
embassy," he went on, has extraterritorial status and therefore
"it is difficult for the UN arms inspectors to make a fuss about
it."
Speaking for the Iraqi opposition, the source said, "we have had
agents at the site who could see that the embassy building is
used to hide documents."
He said the nerve gas is stored in a solid state, "like salt,"
and probably is deposited in the Iraqi desert.
The alleged existence of secret repositories which effectively
are off limits to the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) was reported
to its British chairman, Richard Butler, in a confidential letter
sent by the Iraqi exiles on September 16. Its text contains these
passages:
"We learned certain information from sources in Baghdad which
will be of use to you.
"We believe there are documents regarding Iraq's weapons of mass
destruction hidden in St. Joseph's Church in the Dora district.
The church is on the main street across from the Assyrian market.
"There are also important documents being stored at the Baghdad
residence of President Yasser Arafat in the Jadiriya district."
The cordial relations between the PA and Saddam's regime are
borne out by a report in the Palestinian press this week that
$100 million in aid from the Iraqi government is being blocked by
the UN.
Sources here believe Iraq is interested in exporting oil to the
PA through Jordan in addition to providing monetary assistance or
as a substitute for it, but this is being prevented by Israel.
"It could be a lucrative proposition for all the parties
concerned," a source said, "Iraq, Jordan, Israel, and the PA."
Elements of the Palestinian Police were trained in Iraq "and the
Iraqi government pays the PA for using camps on Iraqi soil," the
source went on, contending that Iraq has been actively involved
in preparing terrorists for missions which it initiates.
"Arafat never stopped his relations with Iraqi intelligence," a
Palestinian familiar with the inner workings of the PA said.
He said Arafat's reported meeting in Amman with Iraq's ambassador
on August 8 "actually was with a senior Iraqi intelligence
officer. The Iraqi Embassy was the logical venue, because Iraqi
intelligence personnel never stay in hotels when they are
abroad."
MOHAMMED NAJIB adds:
Five Palestinian organizations sent a joint message to Saddam
yesterday stating their opposition to American "aggression"
against Iraq. They also called on the UN to lift its sanctions.
The message was signed by representatives of Fatah, the PFLP,
DFPLP, Popular Struggle, and the Arab Liberation Front.
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"General Assembly votes overwhelmingly against Israel"
Associated Press, 11/13/97 20:02
UNITED NATIONS (AP) - For the third time this year, the U.N.
General Assembly voted overwhelmingly Thursday to condemn
Israel's refusal to stop construction of a Jewish housing area in
a part of Jerusalem the Palestinians want as a future capital.
The vote was 139-3 with 13 abstentions. The only negative votes
were the United States, Israel and Micronesia.
The resolution also calls on Switzerland to make plans for a
conference of signatories to the Fourth Geneva Convention to
enforce a ban on settlement activities in Israeli-occupied
territories.
Switzerland is the repository of the 1949 convention, which
governs the treatment of civilians in time of war. Switzerland
was asked to take "necessary steps" to convene a meeting of
experts by the end of February to discuss a recommendation for a
conference to enforce the convention "in the occupied Palestinian
territory, including Jerusalem".
Israel's U.N. ambassador, Dore Gold, said such a conference would
be "a dangerous mix" in the volatile region.
The resolution also condemned Israel's refusal to stop
construction of 6,500 homes at Har Homa, which the Arabs call
Jabal Abu Ghneim.
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"NEWS ANALYSIS: Hussein -- chess master, or master bungler?"
WASHINGTON (November 4, 1997 5:46 p.m. EST) - Consummate chess
player intent on staying in power? Or is Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein a clumsy bungler who staggers from crisis to crisis and
repeatedly misjudges the diplomatic climate?
Experts on Iraq are reading Saddam both ways in the confrontation
over his attempts to exclude Americans from the U.N. teams sent
to inspect his dwindling arsenal of weapons.
They do agree that the timing of the latest crisis has much to do
with activity in the U.N. Security Council last month, when the
United States could muster only a narrow majority for
restrictions on travel by Iraqi officials.
They also give credence to reports that the U.N. weapons
inspectors have been closing in on places where the Iraqis are
making the chemicals for the deadly nerve gas VX, hidden from
sight in defiance of U.N. resolutions.
"He (Saddam) thought he had international support for being
belligerent. Two weeks ago, the renewal of sanctions only got
through the Security Council with the slimmest of margins," said
Paul Beaver of Jane's Intelligence in London.
"The inspectors were very close to two sites where he has been
making the precursor chemicals. He is doing everything he can to
block efforts to get to those," he added.
"They (the Iraqis) are trying to pull apart the entire inspection
regime. It's clear the Iraqis have decided to take a shot at
putting a dent in the whole sanctions system," said Ken Pollack,
a Gulf military analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy.
"The VX report is a rumor, an enticing rumor, but it would
certainly fit the pattern of facts," he added.
The U.S. administration prefers the "bungler" explanation for
Iraqi strategy. It can cite a long list of previous abortive
Iraqi attempts to break out of international isolation by driving
a wedge between its enemies.
"He's made a serious miscalculation ... He's shot himself in the
foot," said State Department spokesman James Rubin.
"Once he tried to exploit what he perceived as a division (in the
alliance against Iraq), the door was slammed in his face.
Whatever wedge he might have thought was there evaporated quite
quickly," Rubin added.
But Anthony Cordesman, a director of Middle East Studies at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington,
said it would be a mistake to judge the wisdom or folly of
Saddam's decision from a Western perspective.
He emphasized the domestic and regional appeal for Saddam to act
defiant. The most he would lose from confrontation was damage to
a dispensible military target, he added.
"Every time he challenges the United States he shows his own
power and improves his standing in the Arab world. He's a chess
player and he knows that the Security Council is not united on
the use of force," he said.
"He defies the world, backs down, loses a dispensible military
asset ... He's stayed in power, the sanctions have been much
eased and he's preserved a breakout capability. From an Iraqi
perspective, he's gained a great deal," he said.
Richard Butler, chairman of the U.N. Special Commission on Iraqi
weapons, also speculated there might be a regional image
dimension. Asked what Saddam was doing, Butler said: "It doesn't
make sense. Maybe it is a wish to be the strong person in the
Arab world."
At the United Nations, some diplomats said the Iraqi president
thought he had nothing to lose by confrontation and his military
wanted to keep some of their weapons of mass destruction because
of a perceived threat from Iran.
If that was true, the cost has been staggering -- tens of
billions of dollars in missed oil revenues.
"He's clearly hiding something. Accepting all those sanctions, he
must be hiding something. $100 billion? No one's that
principled," said Richard Haas, director of foreign policy
studies at the Brookings Institute in Washington.
Even among those Iraqi officials who favor giving up the most
powerful weapons, few saw any hope that the United States would
ever let the oil flow freely, the diplomats added.
Haas agreed Saddam could be acting rationally in challenging the
United Nations. "He might be right in thinking that he's in a
better position to absorb punishment that we are to dish it out,"
he added.
But Haas said there was no way Saddam would persuade the United
States to back down on Americans taking part in U.N. inspection
teams. "If it takes a military strike, then that's what it will
be," he added.
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