I
Chapter 1. Hard Facts.
Like most people in this world, my experience of the effects of our growing population was for many years limited to my observations of the development in my immediate neighborhood. From time to time some of the changes that occurred, such as the ever increasing traffic, the continuous noise from the distant highway and the ever increasing property taxes, raised questions regarding our future way of life. But I became so used to the slow but continuing change that this rate of growth eventually became an expected part of everyday life. Over the last three decades, in the name of "development", I have seen our villages turn into towns, I have seen the farmland disappear as it is sold for building lots, I have seen the highways become congested, with traffic lights now on almost every junction, as the country lanes have become lined with homes. Yet because I have been part of this growth, it has appeared to be the natural sequence of change, a slow and steady movement to a better life.
Then for several years I worked overseas in some of the developing countries and the things that I saw and heard completely changed my understanding of the effects of population growth. Four episodes in particular stand out in my mind.
I had worked for several years from time to time in one of the Third World countries and had been asked by a senior government official to come to his office. He asked for my impression of the changes I had seen over the years in his country and I congratulated him on the improved agricultural program that now fed all of their people, and mentioned that I no longer saw individuals dying of starvation in the streets. He thanked me for my comments then replied wistfully, "But next year there will be a million more mouths to feed, and the year after that another million". His final comment has remained with me over the years and still sends a chill down my spine. "We are eventually heading for the worst famine the world has ever seen, and there is nothing that we can do to prevent it".
While driving through the beautiful mountains near Katmandu in Nepal, I was admiring the skillfully terraced fields irrigated by the mountain streams, that climbed almost to the mountaintops. Suddenly I came across a wide expanse of bare rock where all the soil had disappeared and had obviously been swept away down to the valley below. I was told that the trees that had protected the slopes for centuries had been cut down and the rains then washed away the soil. There had always been an ample supply of dead wood for cooking and heating, but the population had grown dramatically over the past few decades and there was no alternative fuel. The people had been forced to cut down the living trees to warm their homes in the mountains and to cook their food. Indeed there was a flood of people moving from the country, as there was now insufficient land to provide the needs of the growing population and they were moving into the towns seeking work. The center of Katmandu was so crowded that at times it was difficult to walk in the streets.
While visiting other Third World countries we also found walking in the cities uncomfortable and at times almost impossible because of the masses of humanity. In every case this was caused by the fast growing population in the countryside who could find no work and flocked to the towns to try and make a living. The basic services there were overwhelmed by this influx of people, and walking became a matter of pushing through crowds of men, women and children. Many were ill nourished, and a large number very obviously needed the immediate services of a doctor.
We visited shantytowns in two countries. Hundreds of tiny huts were built of any scrap material that could be found such as old sacks and cardboard and mud and filth was everywhere in spite of the best efforts of the governments. There were few if any toilet facilities or adequate water supplies. The most distressing sights were the hundreds of small children who filled the muddy paths. Few had shoes, some were totally naked, most were ill nourished and very many were obviously in need of medical treatment. We were told that there was no work available in the countryside because of the surge of population, the fields were totally inadequate to provide sufficient food and they fled to the cities in an attempt to avoid starvation.
Back home I began to consider the eventual effects of overpopulation much more seriously. Here in Putnam County, in the state of New York, almost daily I read in the papers of the tighter regulations being developed regarding building on the few remaining open spaces. Morning and evening, the traffic now crawls along what had been country lanes, triggering the demand to convert them to four lane highways and clogging up the country lanes and streets as the traffic attempts to bypass the worst of the jams. On a very personal note my home sits on a lake that was once clean and a popular swimming place in the summer, but is now so polluted that few of the residents will use it and many of the reptiles and animals that used to be found there have long since disappeared. This is understandable, as a few decades ago the hillsides that surround it were covered with forest and farmland and most of the water entered the lake via a large swamp that effectively filtered the rainfall. Now the slopes are covered with homes and roads and during a rainstorm the water rushes down the highways and drains through several culverts directly into the lake
I
The
effects of 20 years of run off from the roads.
The pictures were taken from the same position under the same weather
conditions, the left hand one twenty years ago.
I also began to consider more carefully the many articles that I constantly read in the local paper as being of "environmental concern". I see reports of action groups that are trying to conserve the few remaining acres of open land in our county. There are frequent discussions on the development of land for shopping centers and office buildings. Nowhere in any of these discussions are the effects of population growth even mentioned, in fact it is a matter of some pride that the population growth in our town is the highest in the county. Most of our particular growth is from people who are moving out of New York as incoming immigrants, legal and illegal, take over sections of that city.
The continuously increasing population of this world is rapidly depleting our limited non-renewable resources. It is also jeopardizing the longevity of some resources that we generally consider renewable. At the same time it is drowning us in pollution. No matter what is written and discussed regarding pollution we can never get away form the simple fact that people cause pollution and the more people the more pollution. This in turn further consumes our resources as we try to develop systems to limit the effects of this on the health of our environment and our people. All of this is occurring at a speed that is increasing daily as the world’s population rockets out of control.
This article does not contain pages of statistics, there are plenty of figures provided by the UN and other international organizations regarding our population growth both now and in the future. Rather it presents the facts that have brought us to this point in the history of the world; and it considers the possible scenarios for the future. It discusses the way our end may occur and confirms our ultimate fate if nothing is done to control this ever-growing population. If we look at all the known facts honestly and without prejudice or bias, it is not difficult to understand what is happening in the world. It may well be that we have already left it too late to take effective corrective actions, but certainly if we do not begin immediately, our future is bleak and our end may occur many centuries before nature would otherwise terminate life on this planet and this will then occur under extremely cruel conditions. Hopefully this book will at least stir up a general concern regarding overpopulation and encourage open public debate and action.
When Homo Sapiens first evolved on this world, nature made sure that the species would thrive. The act of procreation was made simple, quick and generally provided pleasure to both parties. The female could be expected, under normal conditions, to give birth to at least one offspring every year during her fruitful lifetime and nature made sure that the male would always be ready and willing to play his part. This natural stimulus was necessary during the major part of the existence of our species as initially life expectancy was short. A high percentage of children never reached adulthood and a healthy birthrate was necessary to guarantee that a sufficient number of people would survive to maintain the race.
For thousands of years this system functioned very well and there was very little change in the conditions that determined the life span of "Homo Sapiens". Then during the last millennium we began, slowly at first, to develop the ability to control our environment and this dramatically changed the entire situation. These changes are still continuing, but at an ever-increasing rate and at a lightning speed, at least compared to the time scale of nature’s evolution. Over the past few centuries they have completely altered our way of life. As a consequence we have been able to dramatically increase our life span, and there is now no reason for a high birthrate to maintain the species.
Better nourishment from the development of farming, clean water supplies, improved housing and sanitation, and above all an ever increasing knowledge of medicine and the prevention of sickness have all played a part. During the past few centuries these advances have resulted in a dramatic increase in the number of people in the world. We have now reached the point where the present rate of growth of the world’s population is no longer required to guarantee the survival of mankind. Instead, population growth has now become the single factor that is most likely to guarantee the premature demise of our civilization.
Unfortunately overpopulation and the effects it has on our way of life, are extremely unpopular subjects for general discussion. They attack so many traditional philosophies, they affect so many political and religious affiliations that they are rarely discussed openly in any public forum. Only a day or so ago I heard a talk show host on the TV discussing an incident that caused the death of a child. He then said that as our population continues to grow there was a much greater probability of this happening again. After going into the details of population growth his final comment was "But there is nothing we can do about that". There are a few less well known organizations that are dedicated to the debate but generally they are not reported in the media. They make their arguments in a quiet, scientific manner, and are never given the publicity accorded to the more active environmental groups.
In total contrast the environmental protection lobby is strong and extremely militant in its demands for the elimination of anything that could be considered as damaging to our environment. However it then seems totally unable or unwilling to accept the very obvious fact that the fundamental cause of almost all of our environmental problems is our ever-increasing population. We read of protesters living in the redwoods to prevent them from being felled or from removing timber that might harm the spotted owl. We hear of the demands to eliminate atomic energy completely or to tear down the dams to allow the rivers to flow freely. We see and hear the outcry to save the rain forest, and preserve the homeland of the gorillas. These are all excellent subjects for discussion, but they all very deliberately avoid any debate on the very simple fact that none of this would be necessary if we controlled the world’s population.
I have never seen or heard any report of our environmentalists demanding that some actions be taken to retard our population growth. When I asked one activist why this fundamental cause of most of our environmental problems is not given the importance it deserves, his response was that "This is not a popular subject". Another said, "We can do nothing about it, so we don’t bother". Unfortunately pretending that the overpopulation of this world does not exist and has no effect on our future will never eliminate the very real danger that civilization faces today.
It is extremely difficult to understand why we refuse to discuss publicly the inevitable fate that awaits us all because of overpopulation. It is incredible that we are unwilling to even consider developing the actions that are necessary to prevent it. We dance around the subject of population growth as if it does not matter, as if it will eventually correct itself or that there was nothing we can do about it and as if we had all the time in the world to correct the situation. We try to pretend that the inevitable crisis will never happen although all the evidence is clearly visible to anyone with an unbiased eye. We spend a tremendous amount of time and effort in attempting to eliminate the environmental problems and the social and political signs that clearly indicate our eventual fate. We appear to be totally unable or unwilling to take any corrective action. For example there are continuing discussions on how to prevent global warming, and avoid polluting the rivers and oceans. These are all commendable concerns, but completely ignore the ever-growing population that is the cause of all these problems. People pollute, more people generate more pollution.
We are like the sailors on a sinking ship, who are trying to bale out the ocean with a teacup, while ignoring the gaping hole through which the sea is pouring in.
Recently I read of the international meeting to discuss new laws to limit the emission of gases that are believed to cause "global warming" and the tremendous cost that this would incur. From time to time we see concerned groups taking up arms to prevent the loss of acres of rain forest to agriculture or mining or similar projects. Ocean fishing that for years was completely unrestricted is now subject to control because the amount of fish available is steadily decreasing. All of these actions are commendable, but no one will even discuss the overpopulation that is the fundamental cause of all of these problems.
Overpopulation and the effect that it has on our lives and our future must be brought "out of the cupboard" and debated openly by us all. Until we accept the consequences we will never take action to correct the situation. This is not something that can be delayed for years. We either begin to take action now, or we must prepare for a global disaster way beyond anything we have seen to date. This will totally smash our civilization as we know it today. Those who are left may generate a new and very different society, but that will be generations away.
Hopefully this article will raise the degree of concern regarding the worlds population, initiate discussion and hopefully trigger some corrective action. It will also begin to show the complexity of the situation and that this problem affects almost every aspect of our lives. Merely stabilizing the population at its present level will affect our economy, the very way that we live, and our entire future. It we intend our civilization to continue into the future we will ultimately have to reduce the world’s population to that which we can support with our replaceable resources. When we consider this step, we will see that the results shake the very foundations of many of our beliefs and ideas. The results of taking no action however will be even more disastrous.