Chapter 14. Why Not Start Now?
The price of gasoline is steadily creeping ever higher, and there is no doubt that this trend will continue as the world's oil supply becomes depleted. In the near future it is inevitable that eventually there will be no oil products available at all. The automobile industry will dwindle to a level that can be fueled by the remaining supplies or the small amount of replacement fuels that may eventually be developed. The use of these fuels will have to be controlled, and limited to such purposes as the shipment of foods and necessary raw materials, or for the farmers and other food providers. This will cause the complete collapse of the automotive industry as we know it, and we should begin planning for this now.
With the subsequent much higher cost of transportation, we will see a swing towards smaller local factories that produce solely for their immediate society, and avoid the high costs of moving their products all over the country. In many respects we will return to a society similar to that of the late 1800s, when a housewife took her basket on her arm and almost daily walked to the nearest general store for the food for her family. Only for very special items did she occasionally make the journey to the nearest shopping center. People in the future will tend to work locally although the computer will doubtless permit much more "home work". Here again an efficient supply of electrical power will be required.
The sooner we begin to plan for these days the easier will be the change to our society and the first thing that has to be done is to answer two very important questions.
What is the overall basic life style that we expect to offer all our people?
How many people can our replaceable resources support in this style, using our best technology?
These are far from easy questions, but there has to be a consensus on the answers, as they will have a dramatic effect on the future of all of us. There is no doubt that the initial planning will indicate the need for an eventual population level that will show a marked decrease from the present figure. The next action will be to plan for a steady reduction to this level and this will take several generations. Time is short as the load on our non-replaceable resources grows daily and we have to start taking action quickly. The sooner we begin to plan our long term future, the more we can defuse the problems caused by the shortages and the lack of power and thus the sooner we can arrive at a stable society.
The drive for a stable society will not eliminate the bumps in the road, but we will be able to plan for them and reduce to a minimum their effects on our people. Better to begin rationing gasoline now for only essential uses while we develop an effective system of public transport, than wait until price forces it beyond the ordinary worker and we have to take panic measures. Better to slow down the aircraft industry in a planned manner rather than wait until the cost of fuel empties the skies and closes all the factories for good. We should be developing a countrywide public transport system based on replaceable electric power. We need to know where we are going, we need to know what our options will be and then we must plan our future, not leave it to luck, good fortune and our present economic system.
This is not a simple matter and to some extent it is understandable that our leaders shy away from taking action now in favor of the "Do Nothing" approach. After all on the surface there is prosperity and plenty and no cause for alarm. But an unbiased review of the facts show clearly that unless we make a start at planning for the future we will never succeed in developing a program that provides the necessities of life. The most important part of that plan is to begin to reduce our reliance on the non-replaceable resources of the world. This inevitably means reducing the demand, until we can provide all the necessities of life without damaging the resources for future generations.
Of course bringing the population growth down to zero has enormous ramifications that will require firmness of character if we are to "stay the course". Merely halting the population growth will inevitably have massive economic ramifications. Our entire society is built on demand. As the population grows the demands for food, clothes and the necessities of life continue to grow and fuel the economy, while at the same time they deplete our resources. The improvement in income and the standard of living generates more consumers for the automobiles, the TV receivers, and the other non-essentials. Stabilizing the population numbers will doubtless bring economic confusion until a totally different system has been developed. Capitalism works fine when increasing demand and a limitless supply make competition the controlling factor, but it fails miserably when the demand is stable and the supply strictly limited.
The first step in stabilizing the world’s population at the present figure will introduce many problems into society. Reducing the world’s population will have an even greater economic impact. First the population-v-age statistics will show a temporary but marked increase in older people and until stability is reached, that will impact taxes and the demand for assistance for the elderly. As the population declines the value of real estate will cease its mad growth and return to more realistic figures. With empty homes, offices and factories in our towns and cities, we will have an opportunity to plan the way we live together in a much more "society oriented" manner. With a greater reliance on public transport we will doubtless see a return to the "village" layout in our cities, with more or less self-sufficient neighborhoods with most facilities within walking distance.
The end of the fossil fuels will impact travel and commerce directly. Aircraft and shipping move millions of tons of produce and millions of people daily all over the world. As fuel costs increase it is inevitable that these services will become more and more expensive until alternative forms of transport are developed. Unless alternative aircraft fuels can be developed in sufficient quantities from replaceable resources, which seems extremely unlikely, in another 20 to 30 years we will see an end to air transport. It is unlikely that any other system will take its place. The twentieth century will go down in history as the age of the internal combustion engine, the automobile and the airplane.
For shipping, it appears that the only alternative is to return to the power of the wind, although the technically modern sailing ship will be very different from the square rigged ship of the golden days of sail. Here again we should be using the time and fuel available to begin developing these vessels instead of building larger and grander cruise ships. For an interim period our larger vessels may be powered by atomic energy, but eventually this fuel will also become depleted.
It is not difficult to see that we have little time to prepare for the end of our limited resources. If we begin making our plans now, we may be able to prevent the chaos that at this time appears only too clearly on the horizon. We cannot wait for another ten years, it may already be too late for a normal progression. It may require extraordinary actions. In any case it is vitally important that we decide on our ultimate population and begin the activities that will guide us towards that goal.