Chapter 4. What is Our Future?
If no previous disaster occurs, our world will inevitably come to an end when the dying Sun explodes and the earth and everything on it will be incinerated. All the scientific evidence points to this as our fiery final act. Mankind will almost certainly have died out many centuries before this happens, if only from the violent weather changes that will develop as the Sun dies. However if the present rate of growth in our population is not brought under control, civilization as we know it will end much earlier as our people struggle with nature and each other for the necessities of life.
The destruction of our planet will have very little effect on the remainder of the universe. As one writer so eloquently described the ultimate fate of our world. "On a distant planet an astronomer may casually mention to a colleague. ‘I saw an exploding star last night’". That is all the end of this world will mean to our neighbors, if any neighbors exist. We have searched for other intelligence in our universe for many years using a variety of scientific methods, but to date nothing has been detected. Certainly it is unlikely that any other civilization will be concerned at our demise, or attempt to prevent it from occurring.
In earlier times the world was believed to be the center of the known universe and the human race has developed an unbelievable sense of self-importance. We seem totally unable to accept the fact, unpalatable though it may be, that we are nothing but an insignificant speck in the grandeur of space.
From the beginning of recorded history there have always been the myths of a continuation of life after death in some unidentifiable place where we will live for eternity in peace and plenty. Similarly the end of the world has been portrayed as the beginning of a new era, and following some unidentified period of struggle and suffering we will arrive at a new civilization with complete freedom from the ills that we suffer today. While these myths still continue to fuel the emotions of many people, starting at the beginning of the last century we have slowly turned our hopes for our future to science.
We have harbored the belief that science will be capable of devising ways of prolonging society by super human methods that at present are totally unknown. In more recent years the flood of pseudo scientific movies and TV programs has supported these ideas. These have ranged from moving all of society to a new and younger planet that at this time we have not yet discovered, to building new cities in space to house all our people. It has been suggested that we will be able to transfer our civilization to Mars or the Moon or at least mine these planets for the essential materials that we will have exhausted in our own world. Perhaps some intelligent beings from another planet will come in their flying saucers and solve all our problems.
The idea has been put forward that we will be able, by some method that is at present unknown, to travel through time and space with relative ease, and transport people and materials by ways at present not understood. These all make delightful stories and present some intangible hope for the future. However if we are honest none of these dreams are likely to be realized. Just consider the energy, the time and the cost expended in our current space program, and the technologies that had to be developed just to put up a few men into space. Also recognize that to maintain the three or four people on the space station we have to use the efforts of hundreds of people here on earth.
Unless we can develop totally new technologies, which at present we do not posses or even understand, it seems totally unlikely that we will be able to move more than a very few individuals to another planet. In any case, to date we have not found a single planet that will support life, as we know it, in spite of the efforts that have been used on this project. It would be pointless to set out on this long and perilous journey if we do not know where we are going. In addition our present technologies are totally incapable of moving this mass of people and materials using the world’s available resources.
Similar comments apply to building cities in space. To support life on the moon would require a tremendous number of support staff here on earth. It is impossible for our world’s population to find permanent and self-reliant habitation on that airless and desolate planet. This is not to suggest that all work towards these objectives should be halted, but rather that it seems unlikely that we will develop these capabilities in the foreseeable future. In addition we are fast consuming our limited non replaceable resources in this search. The option of moving to another planet or building a new home in space does not presently exist and it is unlikely that any method of making this happen will become available in the foreseeable future.
Whether there is a heaven or hell or some other dimension where our souls will continue for eternity is more a matter of faith than reality. We have to be honest with ourselves and admit that much as we would like to see our civilization sail on into eternity, it will inevitably cease. The eventual end of civilization is certain, so therefore does it matter if the world population continues to grow? The answer lies in the timing of the extinction of the world’s population and the way that this will occur.
If we allow our population to grow unhindered, then the end of our civilization will occur comparatively quickly. It will be the most ghastly and cruel event that the world has ever known. It will begin within the lifetime of some of the children alive today; indeed some signs of the future are already with us. We see the constant attack on our borders by people seeking to improve their lot, people who are so desperate that they will risk life and limb to come here and perform the most menial tasks. Consider what will happen during the next twenty years when these same countries that they are escaping from become even further over burdened with people. If we control our population growth then our civilization can continue for many more centuries into the future and we can plan for the end of our civilization in a calm and ordered manner. This then gives us much more time to attempt to develop technologies that may prolong our way of life. This is the basis for the first choice open to us..
We have seen how the numbers of an animal species dwindles and dies when they exceed the ability of the food chain to sustain them. Our knowledge of science and technology can help us in this matter but cannot eliminate the ultimate results. Even worse is the possibility of decimating our current renewable resources by placing an unacceptable demand on their ability to renew themselves. The second choice open to us is to take no action of any kind. We will then eventually face disaster as the peoples of this world fight for their share of the declining food. water and other supplies necessary for life. With citizens dying from starvation because of no way to increase the food supplies, with no electrical power because of a lack of oil, war will seem a small price to pay to assure the continuation of a nation.
We have already seen this occur in some measure in nature, for example where a particular species has died out because man has ruthlessly hunted or fished a particular area. We have also examples where this is occurring because man has altered the habitat of a particular species such as the great apes. We are already seeing human examples of this in some of the African countries, where starvation has initiated discontent and interracial conflict. Millions have already died but the world has largely ignored the problem because these are little known Third World countries. We are dramatically altering man’s habitat and the changes will continue and accelerate as the world’s population grows.
No matter what we do, we face a very different life style than we live today. The past century has seen tremendous changes because of the growth of science and technology, and these changes will continue. However we will see an ever increasing and dramatic change in the direction of our new development, that will inevitably grow quickly as our non replaceable resources become depleted. This will involve the changes to our lifestyle that will be necessary for life to continue without these resources and the development of other ways of providing the services that will be coming to an end as the various materials are consumed.
For example one major concern will be finding a method of transporting goods when the oil supply is totally consumed in 45 to 50 years time. Will we have to go back to the sailing ship and the canal barge towed by horses? If the world population continues to grow then perhaps that will be the only method available to us. If the growth in the world population can be checked we may be able to produce some fuel from replaceable resources.
No matter how we adapt practically to the more limited resources, it is inevitable that we will have to accept a very different social structure. We have become accustomed to our system of capitalistic freedom that has stood us well during the past few centuries and has overcome the thrust of communism and the more dictatorial systems. We have come to believe that here we have developed a society that surpasses all others. With a growing population this is certainly the case, but when we have limited resources it is unlikely that we can continue to operate in this manner. If we do not limit our population then we will eventually have to exert more controls such as rationing to assure that all our citizens receive an equal measure of what is available, and perhaps we may eventually have to define who can live where.
If we ultimately manage to control our population, then we will also see a very different social structure. With a stable population we will have a stable market place. We will no longer be able to look to growth as providing quick economic success, instead we will have to concentrate on improving our share of the fixed overall profits by very slow growth developed from better products and services. Some of the traditional methods of achieving wealth will disappear. With a stable population, real estate and property development will not provide the ability to quickly make a fortune.
By exerting some measure of self-control, by looking at all the facts, as we know them, we can dramatically prolong our civilization. We can provide many more fruitful years during which time, although it seems unlikely, a solution to our eventual demise may be developed. We can in the interim avoid pain and suffering for many of the people of this world.