Chapter 5. What Has Been Done?
At the present time there is no overall plan to limit the growth of the world’s population. The future of our civilization is relying on the philosophy that briefly states "As the standard of living, and the degree of education in the various countries improves, the birthrate will automatically slow down". Perhaps this may eventually occur, and certainly at the present time it seems to be the only voluntary system that has any chance of success.
However this philosophy is largely unproven, and the predicted figure for the peak of the world’s population varies so much from one authority to another that it can be taken as nothing more than a "best guess". One study suggests that the population will peak at 9 billion in about another 70 years and will not start to decline until the 22nd century. Another study suggests that it may stop growing in the next century. However another expert comments that "You can’t predict the future" and this appears to be the situation.
In the last 50 years the world’s population almost doubled to just over 6 billion people. The United Nations gave an assessment in 1998 that the world’s population would increase by a further 3 billion in the next 50 years. An expert from one of our most prestigious universities predicts that the world population will reach 12 billion before it begins to decline. He predicts that this eventual reduction in the world’s population will occur only because of shortages of food, fuel and other essential resources that will cause widespread deaths from famine.
Because of various religious and political pressures, the expected reduction from social changes may Indeed never occur. For these very same reasons, in some countries, an improved standard of living may trigger off even larger families. Even if the philosophy of an increasing standard of living causing a reduction in the birth rate is found to be effective, by the time that the world’s population has stabilized it will have increased by at least a further 50%. The present level of population may well have already exceeded the total number of people that the world can support without permanently depleting some of our replaceable resources. We have to ask ourselves how we are going to support a further 3 billion or more people. As one Third World official told me, "We are heading for the worst famine the world has ever seen and there is nothing that we can do about it".
China is the only nation in the world that has taken any truly effective steps to hold their population in check. Their action caused an outcry from many other nations, but the Chinese authorities should have been applauded for recognizing the danger that was facing their country and taking appropriate action. Certainly they have at times used draconian methods to limit the number of children per family, but it is not easy to see what else they could have done. When visiting China I have never seen the hordes of sickly, hungry children that are so obvious in some of the neighboring countries. The children of China appeared healthy, educated and well cared for. In addition they were obviously loved and treasured as the caretakers of the country’s traditions and way of life. India has tried a more voluntary approach, offering men the equivalent of one years wages if they will submit to sterilization. I have been told that this has made very little difference to the overall birthrate, largely because of traditional and religious reasons.
Many other countries have made some attempts to hold their population in check, but to date they have had only limited and temporary success. There are so many practical and physiological reasons why large families can be desirable, and even more reasons for failing to take the necessary precautions to prevent conception. Efforts to date have been piecemeal and without an overall world plan. This has resulted in reductions in some areas that have been negated by an inrush of people from those areas where the population continues to increase unabated. This movement is inevitable as people struggle to improve their quality of life, but will almost certainly eventually trigger off antagonism and even physical violence as residents of a particular area experience a lowering of their standard of living because of the incoming flood of newcomers. We have already seen signs of such a conflict on the Mexican/USA border, where Mexican citizens risk their lives to illegally enter the United States and then work for minimal wages often under miserable conditions that are however much better than they could find in Mexico. Similar conditions apply to India and Pakistan, and their peoples can be found in menial jobs throughout the Middle East.
There has been no coordinated world effort to hold down population growth, indeed in some countries the people have been encouraged to produce large families, largely to provide support for a particular religious or political group or policy. It was recently reported that one African country was proposing that polygamy should be made legal so as to increase the number of births and thus the population. Some of the world’s religions actively discourage birth control except by somewhat ineffective so called "natural" means. Without worldwide planning and agreement it is unlikely that we will ever achieve any permanent control of the world’s population. It will certainly never be realized until the consequences of overpopulation are described in plain terms and given the publicity that will take the message to all peoples everywhere.
Unfortunately the cause and effects of population growth involves such matters as birth control, sexuality, and other subjects that are generally not discussed openly. Religion and personal beliefs also color this entire matter and consequently it becomes difficult to review the subject objectively. One individual explained to me that the philosophy promoted by his religion is that a large family is perfectly natural and should be encouraged. This philosophy stated that "There is no need to be concerned, God will provide". Unfortunately as a visit to any of the third world countries will show, the only things that have been provided are hunger, sickness and misery.
Politics inevitably enter into the matter, as leaders struggle for power and look to the support of the people through adopting the more popular beliefs. The final and in many respects the strongest opposition to controlling the world’s population comes indirectly from business and industry.
The current life style in most of the major industrial countries depends on capitalism, competition and a growing demand for the many products and services that we produce. For some years in the future this demand can be sustained by steadily improving the economy in many of the less advanced countries. However to maintain this growth eventually demands a constantly increasing number of consumers. This in turn will require a growing population. This then infers an increasing consumption of the world’s resources, and a subsequent increase in pollution. We are already seeing many signs that demand is outgrowing resources, and in spite of all of the efforts to control pollution it is a growing matter of concern in many of our major industrial and urban areas. With a greater understanding of the effects of pollution on our environment this is also fast becoming a rural problem. We can see clearly the immediate effects of pollution but the long term effects are not truly understood and may not be discovered until years into the future, when it may be too late to correct the resulting situation.
Competition has in the past proved an excellent method of allowing the best to survive, forcing business and industry to seek the most efficient methods of producing the products that their customers demand. However, as the raw materials that industry uses become scarcer, this system will not work. We are already seeing this in the oil industry, where the OPEC organization now controls the price of oil simply because their members own the major part of the world’s supplies. This form of monopolistic control will continue to grow, as the sources of other raw materials become scarcer. This is currently being accepted with respect to oil, but what happens as the supply becomes reduced still further and the price rises to $10 or even $20 per gallon. What happens when there is a similar shortage of food or clean water? Will the suppliers be permitted to charge whatever the market place will accept, even when people are starving?
When we consider all of these factors, it starts to become obvious that taking truly effective corrective actions to reduce or even control the world’s population will involve a total change in many of our cherished beliefs. Depending on the ultimate level at which the population can be stabilized, we may well see erosion of our freedom to live as we wish. When we see shortages of essential materials pushing prices beyond that which the ordinary family can afford, there will inevitably be a demand for rationing. This in turn will require very tight control of the storage and distributions of the materials in short supply. Inevitably this will bring about controls on how and where we can live and the curtailment of many other freedoms to which we have become accustomed. Many older people have seen examples of this happening during World War 2..
Who would have believed fifty years ago that we would be limited as to the fertilizer we are allowed to use on our lawns, the composition of the paints we use on our houses or the color of the bags in which we place our garbage? Twenty years ago I could burn the brush in my garden whenever the weather was suitable. Now I have to obtain a permit and call the local police before and after burning. Slowly our freedom to live as we wish is being eroded, to assure that we do not harm our neighbors or the environment. As the population of the world increases and more people are packed closer together these things are inevitable. We are steadily becoming enmeshed in a web of laws that are primarily intended to nurture and protect us, but inevitable take away our freedom to live as we wish.
So in summary we have done very little or nothing to even attempt to control the growing population of our world. Indeed we have pushed the subject aside as if it did not exist, or was of no concern. It is rarely if ever considered in our political deliberations or even mentioned in the press or on our TV programs. Certainly it can be an embarrassing and touchy subject as it strikes at the very heart of our society. The suggestion that families should restrict the number of their children runs contrary to many generally held views. It can also be damaging politically as it attacks so many popular emotions. However none of this will change until the facts are laid out in a simple and unbiased manner for open discussion.
We have refrained from taking action because of social, religious and political attitudes, and also because our present economic system is based on a growing consumption. Depending on the way we approach this problem in the future, we can look forward to a chaotic and cruel end to society, as we know it, or a longer and more tranquil, though more controlled existence. If we look at all the facts objectively and without prejudice or bias, it becomes obvious that disaster looms very close, and even if we take immediate action we may be too late to eliminate many of the dangers that await our civilization.
Even if we begin immediately to control the world’s population this will only be the beginning of several long and at times difficult tasks. First to calculate just how many people the world can maintain over the long term. This will demand that we consider the eventual life style that we will accept, and even more difficult, we will have to ask ourselves if we are "Our brother’s keeper". Are we prepared to lower our standard of living and ration our food so that other peoples can avoid starvation? Are we prepared to give up our personal transport so that food and other necessities can be delivered to the masses in other countries? These are not simple questions and the answers are even more complex. However these are questions that will eventually have to be answered. The need for all the peoples of this world to work together in harmony towards a common goal is without any doubt the most difficult aspect of the entire situation.
We must quickly and honestly meet together without nationalistic or other personal prejudice and agree on a plan to first halt the world’s population growth. Then we must work to reduce the number of people in the world to a level that can be sustained for the long term. If we cannot do this, then the alternative is too horrible to consider.