2009 DRAFT SUMMARY

We all know this draft will turn on which players the Pirates sign.  Obviously, they're not going to sign everybody.  They've made it clear they have priorities and fallbacks.  I've tried to take a look at what they might end up with, or at least what I hope they'll end up with.  We also all know that this is a pitching draft, which is just as well because (a) that's where the talent was in this draft pool and (b) even though the farm system isn't exactly loaded with hitting talent, the pitching side is in especially dire straits.  So I'll start with the hitters, because that's the easy part.

Catching Up

The one position that was well represented in this draft, aside from pitching, was catching.  That was also the one area, aside from pitching, that the Pirates emphasized, which is just as well because they don't have any catching prospects in the system apart from Steve Lerud, whose ceiling is probably that of a marginal backup.  Apart from top pick Tony Sanchez, they drafted three catchers.  Two—Joseph Schoenfeld (10) and Wes Luquette (27)—are high school catchers with some upside.  My guess is the Pirates will try to sign Luquette if they can't sign Schoenfeld, who's very raw but exceptionally athletic, according to BA.  Luquette, who plans to play baseball and football at LSU, would require above-slot money.  JUCO draftee Peter Bako (15) is the remaining catcher and should be easier to sign.

Probably the highest ceiling among the hitters belongs to CF Matt den Dekker (16), who had an inexplicably bad junior season at U. Fla. and will require well above slot money to sign.  He's a high-risk player with a lot of upside if his bat bounces back, because he's a premium defensive player.  It's important for the Pirates to sign den Dekker or this draft will be very light on hitting potential.  Beyond den Dekker there were JUCO outfielder Evan Chambers (3), who strikes me as an overdraft, and HS infielder Walker Gourley (13), a leadoff type who can play a number of positions.  There were the usual solid college players, in smaller numbers than other years.  These included 2B Brock Holt (9), power-hitting firstbaseman Aaron Baker (11), and two outfielders who've already signed, Jose Hernandez (23) and Pat Irvine (33).  The Bucs also selected a couple of speedy high school outfielders in Aaron LaFountaine (25) and Blake Brown (48), and a HS infielder with some hitting potential in Jacob Lamb (38), but my guess is they won't sign.  To get a real hitting prospect out of this draft they're probably going to need den Dekker to sign.

A Panoply of Arms

The real game here is the pitching.  To begin with, the Pirates took some solid pitching prospects at the top of the draft whom they should be able to sign without a great deal of trouble.  Some of these guys look like they were overdrafted, but at worst they should add depth to a system that desperately needs it.  Although GM Neal Huntington and Scouting Director Greg Smith clearly prefer power arms, the team got a good mix.  From the right side, collegian Victor Black (1S) brings a power arm and prep pitcher Brooks Pounders (2), who's already signed, a polished, finesse approach.  The Bucs also got a HS and college left-hander in Zackry Dodson (4) and Nate Baker (5), respectively.  That fills a need in a system that was largely devoid of LHP prospects until the recent emergence of Rudy Owens and the acquisition of Jeff Locke.

The fun really started in round 6.  From that point the Pirates picked a series of pitchers who'll require above-slot money, in most cases well above.  The above-slot candidates seem to break down roughly into two tiers.  This probably isn't totally accurate, but the top tier looks something like this:

Zack von Rosenberg (6)
Trent Stevenson (7)
Billy (or Colter) Cain (8)
Jeff Inman (12)
Jordan Cooper (17)
Josh Urban (19)
Michael Heller (29)
Kevin Gelinas (45)

Cain and Gelinas are the lefties.  Inman is a college pitcher, Gelinas a JUCO guy, and the rest are HS draftees.  Like the earlier draftees, they present a good mix.  Von Rosenberg is a very polished pitcher with a strong track record and good projection.  Stevenson has great projection but hasn't filled out or physically matured yet.  Cain is a power lefty who's dominated in HS.  Inman was highly regarded coming into his junior year at Stanford but suffered an alarming drop in velocity, leading to him being shut down with shoulder tendonitis.  My guess is that he's about the least likely to sign.  Cooper and Urban have shown great stuff at times, but have been erratic.  Heller is a top U. Fla. recruit who's sometimes had mid-90s velocity.  Gelinas is another power lefty who's arguably the best JUCO pitching prospect in the country.  All of them, except of course Inman, have committed to major college programs.

These guys are the key to the Pirates' draft.  The more of them they sign, the better the draft looks.  My guess is that their goal is to sign von Rosenberg, Stevenson and Cain, which would probably make the draft a good one, with the others mainly serving as fallbacks or bonuses.  If they could sign the first three plus Heller or Gelinas, it'd be a very good draft.  Combined with the earlier picks, they'd have a sizeable group of quality pitching prospects.

Beyond the more prominent pitchers, the Pirates drafted quite a few others who've shown some potential in one way or another.  They did the same last year, picking up a number of later round pitchers who'd shown good velocity or offered some other element, such as throwing sidearm, that might have given them enough of an edge to become relief prospects.  This year's group, though, looks like they have much more potential, which may reflect the pitching depth of this draft.  To hit some of the more interesting pitchers, JUCO righty Marcos Reyna (14) saw his velocity jump this year and put up a good K rate.  The team should be able to sign him.  HS lefty Matt Dermody (26) recently fanned all 18 hitters he faced in a six-inning game.  HS righty Keifer Nuncio (39) reaches the low-90s, but wants a large bonus.  Dexter Bobo (44) is a lefty who throws in the low-90s but who's struggled with his control in college.  Some other pitchers who look like they could be more than organizational players:

Kyle Hooper (28)
Niko Spezial (30)
Brett Lee (40)
Matt Taylor (50)

Hooper is a righty, the others lefties.  All are HS draftees and probably all will require above-slot money.  Again, all have signed with major college programs, as have Dermody and Nuncio.  (Usually, many of the Pirates' HS draftees are committed to JUCO programs.  The fact that they've drafted so many HS players with major college commitments is an indication of how high they're aiming.)  The Pirates may not sign many, or any, of these pitchers, but every one helps.

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