2009 DRAFT SUMMARY
We all know this draft will turn on
which players the Pirates sign. Obviously, they're not going to sign
everybody. They've made it clear they have priorities and fallbacks.
I've tried to take a look at what they might end up with, or at least what I
hope they'll end up with. We also all know that this is a pitching draft,
which is just as well because (a) that's where the talent was in this draft pool
and (b) even though the farm system isn't exactly loaded with hitting talent,
the pitching side is in especially dire straits. So I'll start with the
hitters, because that's the easy part.
Catching Up
The
one position that was well represented in this draft, aside from pitching, was
catching. That was also the one area, aside from pitching, that the
Pirates emphasized, which is just as well because they don't have any
catching prospects in the system apart from Steve Lerud, whose ceiling
is probably that of a marginal backup. Apart from top pick Tony
Sanchez, they drafted three catchers. Two—Joseph Schoenfeld (10) and
Wes Luquette (27)—are high school catchers with some upside. My guess is
the Pirates will try to sign Luquette if they can't sign Schoenfeld, who's very
raw but exceptionally athletic, according to BA. Luquette, who plans to
play baseball and football at LSU, would require above-slot money.
JUCO draftee Peter Bako (15) is the remaining catcher and should be easier
to sign.
Probably the highest ceiling among the hitters belongs to CF
Matt den Dekker (16), who had an inexplicably bad junior season at U. Fla. and
will require well above slot money to sign. He's a
high-risk player with a lot of upside if his bat bounces back, because he's a
premium defensive player. It's important for the Pirates to sign den
Dekker or this draft will be very light on hitting potential. Beyond den
Dekker there were JUCO outfielder Evan Chambers (3), who strikes me as an
overdraft, and HS infielder Walker Gourley (13), a leadoff type who can
play a number of positions. There were the usual solid college
players, in smaller numbers than other years. These included 2B Brock
Holt (9), power-hitting firstbaseman Aaron Baker (11), and two outfielders
who've already signed, Jose Hernandez (23) and Pat Irvine (33). The
Bucs also selected a couple of speedy high school outfielders in Aaron
LaFountaine (25) and Blake Brown (48), and a HS infielder with some hitting
potential in Jacob Lamb (38), but my guess is they won't sign. To get a
real hitting prospect out of this draft they're probably going to need den Dekker to
sign.
A Panoply of Arms
The real game here is the
pitching. To begin with, the Pirates took some solid pitching prospects at the top of the
draft whom they should be able to sign without a great deal of
trouble. Some of these guys look like they were overdrafted, but at worst they should add
depth to a system that desperately needs it. Although GM Neal Huntington and
Scouting Director Greg Smith clearly prefer power arms, the team got
a good mix. From the right side, collegian Victor Black (1S) brings a power
arm and prep pitcher Brooks Pounders (2), who's already signed, a
polished, finesse approach. The Bucs also got a HS
and college left-hander in Zackry Dodson (4) and Nate Baker (5), respectively. That
fills a need in a system that was largely devoid of LHP prospects until
the recent emergence of Rudy Owens and the acquisition of Jeff Locke.
The fun really
started in round 6. From that point the Pirates picked a series of
pitchers who'll require above-slot money, in most cases well above. The
above-slot candidates seem to break down roughly into two tiers. This
probably isn't totally accurate, but the top tier looks something like
this:
Zack von Rosenberg (6)
Trent Stevenson (7)
Billy (or Colter)
Cain (8)
Jeff Inman (12)
Jordan Cooper (17)
Josh Urban (19)
Michael Heller
(29)
Kevin Gelinas (45)
Cain and Gelinas are the lefties. Inman is a college
pitcher, Gelinas a JUCO guy, and the rest are HS
draftees. Like the earlier draftees, they present a good mix. Von Rosenberg is a
very polished pitcher with a strong track record and good projection. Stevenson has great projection
but hasn't filled out or physically matured yet. Cain is a
power lefty who's dominated in HS. Inman was
highly regarded coming into his junior year at Stanford but suffered an alarming drop in
velocity, leading to him being shut down with shoulder tendonitis. My guess is
that he's about the least likely to sign.
Cooper and Urban have shown great stuff at times, but have been
erratic. Heller is a top U. Fla. recruit who's sometimes had mid-90s velocity.
Gelinas is another power lefty who's arguably the best JUCO pitching prospect
in the country. All of them, except of course Inman, have
committed to major college programs.
These guys are the key to the Pirates'
draft. The more of them they sign, the better the draft looks. My
guess is that their goal is to sign von Rosenberg, Stevenson and Cain,
which would probably make the draft a good one, with the others mainly
serving as fallbacks or bonuses. If they could sign the first three plus
Heller or Gelinas, it'd be a very good draft. Combined with the earlier
picks, they'd have a sizeable group of quality pitching prospects.
Beyond
the more prominent pitchers, the Pirates drafted quite a few others who've shown
some potential in one way or another. They did the same last year, picking
up a number of later round pitchers who'd shown good velocity or offered some
other element, such as throwing sidearm, that might have given them enough of an
edge to become relief prospects. This year's group, though, looks like
they have much more potential, which may reflect the pitching depth of this
draft. To hit some of the more interesting pitchers, JUCO righty
Marcos Reyna (14) saw his velocity jump this year and put up a good K
rate. The team should be able to sign him. HS lefty Matt
Dermody (26) recently fanned all 18 hitters he faced in a six-inning
game. HS righty Keifer Nuncio (39) reaches the low-90s, but wants a
large bonus. Dexter Bobo (44) is a lefty who throws in the low-90s
but who's struggled with his control in college. Some other pitchers who
look like they could be more than organizational players:
Kyle Hooper
(28)
Niko Spezial (30)
Brett Lee (40)
Matt Taylor (50)
Hooper is a righty, the others lefties. All are HS
draftees and probably all will require above-slot money. Again, all have
signed with major college programs, as have Dermody and Nuncio. (Usually,
many of the Pirates' HS draftees are committed to JUCO programs. The fact
that they've drafted
so many HS players with major college commitments is an indication of how high
they're aiming.) The Pirates may not sign many, or any, of these pitchers,
but every one helps.
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