ZACH DUKE

4/19/83; '01 20th; Waco, TX (HS)
L/L; 6-2, 212

Level
W-L-Sv
G
GS
IP
H
 HR
BB
K
 BB/9 K/9 WHIP OAVG
ERA
2002 R
8-1-0
11
11
60.0
38
 2
18
48
 2.70 7.20 0.93 .185
1.95
2003 A
8-7-0
26
26
141.2
124
 7
46
113
 2.92 7.18 1.20 .237
3.11
2004 AA
5-1-0
9
9
51.1
41
 2
10
36
 1.75 6.31 0.99 .236
1.58
2004 A+
10-5-0
17
17
97.0
73
 3
20
106
 1.86 9.84 0.96 .210
1.39
2005 NL
8-2-0
14
14
84.2
79
 3
23
58
 2.45
6.17
1.20
.253
1.81
2005 AAA
12-3-0
16
16
108.0
108
 8
23
66
 1.92
5.50
1.21
.267
2.92
2006 NL
10-15-0
34
34
215.1
255
 17
68
117
 2.84
4.89
1.50
.302
4.47
2007 NL
3-8-0
20
19
107.1
161
 14
25
41
 2.10
3.44
1.73
.359
5.53
2007 AAA
0-1-0
1
1
3.2
7
 0
2
1
 4.92
2.46
2.46
.438
4.91
2007 A-
1-0-0
1
1
5.2
3
 0
2
3
 3.18
4.77
0.88
.150
1.59
2007 R
0-0-0
2
2
6.2
5
 0
2
3
 2.70
4.05
1.05
.217
1.35
2008 NL
5-14-0
31
31
185.0
230
19
47
87
2.29
4.23
1.50
.304
4.82

Duke originally signed too late to play in 2001, then was Bradenton's best pitcher, and the GCL's 19th best prospect, in 2002.  He made the jump to full season ball successfully in 2003, although he tailed off as the season progressed, possibly due to it being his first experience with the long season.  ERA.  He broke out in 2004, earning the organization's pitcher of the year award, as well as the equivalent award in the Carolina League despite being promoted in July.  His improvement was reportedly the result of an improved change and velocity that, according to some but not all reports, increased from 86-88 to 89-91, sometimes reaching 93.  He'd always had an outstanding curve and excellent control.  What drew the most accolades, though, was his feel for pitching.

Although it was originally thought that he'd return to AA for the beginning of 2005, the Pirates were so impressed with Duke in spring training that they sent him to AAA after seriously considering him for their rotation.  He pitched well there, although his peripheral stats weren't outstanding beyond his low walk total.  Considering how quickly he went through high A and AA, though, his showing was impressive, enough so that he was named the International League's 3rd best prospect.  The Pirates called him up and he made his first major league start on July 2, pitching a good game in a no-decision.  He then went four straight starts without allowing an earned run, although the last start was limited to two innings due to a rain delay.  He won his first six decisions before missing several weeks with an ankle sprain, an injury that may have cost him the Rookie of the Year award.  The Pirates debated whether to shut Duke down late in the season, as his workload had exceeded his previous high by about mid-August.  He continued to pitch well after his return, though, winning the season's final game.

In 2006, Duke spent much of the year getting hit hard.  He pitched OK the first two months, but had ERAs over 6.00 in both June and July.  His ERA the last two months was 3.10.  A big part of the difference was improved control.  Duke walked 3.39 batters per 9 IP in the first half, only 2.19 in the second.  Opponents still batted .297 against him in the second half, though.  At times, he seemed to allow an endless stream of singles up the middle, possibly the result of hitters holding off and waiting for his curve, which at times seemed to be his only effective pitch.  He also had a very low K rate, and it actually dropped in the second half.  Duke had serious problems at the beginning of games, allowing 29 earned runs in the first inning, and didn't handle RH batters well enough, allowing an .823 OPS against them compared to .685 against LH batters.  Another concern for him was the team's defense, which was horrible all year.  Like Paul Maholm, Duke is a groundball pitcher.  He had a 1.78 ground out to air out ratio in 2006, 2.08 in 2007, and 1.56 in 2008, so he needs a strong defense behind him.  A couple advantages he had were keeping the ball in the park—he allowed a HR only once every 12.7 IP—and holding runners on first, as he has an outstanding pickoff move.  He picked off seven, and only 13 of 25 runners stole successfully against him (and only five of ten in 2007).  He's also a decent hitter for a pitcher, with a career average of .184.

Although he opened 2007 as the team's #1 starter, things went downhill fast.  Duke started getting hammered right out of the gate and the carnage only stopped when he went on the DL with a sore elbow at the end of June.  He returned in September to get bombed in one start and then pitch well against a patchwork St. Louis lineup at the end of the season.  The opponents' batting numbers tell the story, as he was little more than a batting practice pitcher.  The most likely explanation seemed to be that his stuff, which was never his strong point, dropped off badly.  His fastball was mostly down in the mid-80s or lower and his curve seemed flat.  At the end of the year the Pirates claimed that they were unhappy that Duke hadn't taken proper care of his shoulder during the offseason, whatever that means.  Duke himself said his elbow—which is not expected to be a serious problem, although we've heard that before—bothered him much of the time.  The Pirates were reluctant to put him back in the rotation after he had a last, unsatisfactory rehab start, but the minor league season was over so he couldn't rehab any longer.  Once he was recalled, Duke sat out nine days before making a relief appearance and another week before making a start.

In 2008, Duke had largely the same season he had in 2006, which at least povides some indication that his elbow was bothering him in 2007.  His stuff rebounded, with his fastball generally in the upper 80s and occasionally a little higher, and his curve sharper.  His control remained good and he kept the ball in the park better than he had the previous year, but he simply remained too hittable, especially against RH hitters, who had an .816 OPS against him.  The one encouraging sign was that he rebounded well after a horrible July in which he had an ERA of 9.51 and an opponents' BA of .369.  In August and September his ERA was 3.84 and his opponents' BA was .275.  The latter figure isn't good, but Duke clearly will always give up a lot of hits.  He needs to offset the hits by throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park.  Duke remained difficult to steal bases against, as he allowed only six.  As shown by his extremely low K rate, he misses so few bats that he's unlikely ever to be more than a back-of-the-rotation starter.  He'd probably do much better on a team like the Cardinals of 2000-06, who generally had great defense and a good offense.  Unfortunately, he's on a team that scores few runs and plays terrible defense.  The Pirates figured to have at least 8-9 pitchers competing for spots in the rotation in 2009 and stated that nobody other than Maholm is guaranteed a spot.  Duke, however, had little trouble staying in the rotation, partly because he had a good spring and partly because almost nobody else did.

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