ZACH DUKE

4/19/83; '01 20th; Waco, TX (HS)
L/L; 6-2, 212

Level	W-L-Sv	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	BB/9	K/9	WHIP	OAVG	ERA
2002 R	8-1-0	11	11	60.0	38	2	18	48	2.7	7.2	0.93	.185	1.95
2003 A	8-7-0	26	26	141.2	124	7	46	113	2.9	7.2	1.20	.237	3.11
2004 AA	5-1-0	9	9	51.1	41	2	10	36	1.8	6.3	0.99	.236	1.58
2004 A+	10-5-0	17	17	97.0	73	3	20	106	1.9	9.8	0.96	.210	1.39
2005 NL	8-2-0	14	14	84.2	79	3	23	58	2.5	6.2	1.20	.253	1.81
2005 AAA	12-3-0	16	16	108.0	108	8	23	66	1.9	5.5	1.21	.267	2.92
2006 NL	10-15-0	34	34	215.1	255	17	68	117	2.8	4.9	1.50	.302	4.47
2007 NL	3-8-0	20	19	107.1	161	14	25	41	2.1	3.4	1.73	.359	5.53
2007 AAA	0-1-0	1	1	3.2	7	0	2	1	4.9	2.5	2.46	.438	4.91
2007 A-	1-0-0	1	1	5.2	3	0	2	3	3.2	4.8	0.88	.150	1.59
2007 R	0-0-0	2	2	6.2	5	0	2	3	2.7	4.1	1.05	.217	1.35
2008 NL	5-14-0	31	31	185.0	230	19	47	87	2.3	4.2	1.50	.304	4.82
2009 NL	11-16-0	32	32	213.0	231	23	49	106	2.1	4.5	1.31	.285	4.06

Duke originally signed too late to play in 2001, then was Bradenton's best pitcher, and the GCL's 19th best prospect, in 2002.  He made the jump to full season ball successfully in 2003, although he tailed off as the season progressed, possibly due to it being his first experience with the long season.  He broke out in 2004, earning the organization's pitcher of the year award, as well as the equivalent award in the Carolina League despite being promoted in July.  His improvement was reportedly the result of an improved change and velocity that, according to some but not all reports, increased from 86-88 to 89-91, sometimes reaching 93.  He'd always had an outstanding curve and excellent control.  What drew the most accolades, though, was his feel for pitching.

Although it was originally thought that he'd return to AA for the beginning of 2005, the Pirates were so impressed with Duke in spring training that they sent him to AAA after seriously considering him for their rotation.  He pitched well there, although his peripheral stats weren't outstanding beyond his low walk total.  Considering how quickly he went through high A and AA, though, his showing was impressive, enough so that he was named the International League's 3rd best prospect.  The Pirates called him up and he made his first major league start on July 2, pitching a good game in a no-decision.  He then went four straight starts without allowing an earned run, although the last start was limited to two innings due to a rain delay.  He won his first six decisions before missing several weeks with an ankle sprain, an injury that may have cost him the Rookie of the Year award.  The Pirates debated whether to shut Duke down late in the season, as his workload had exceeded his previous high by about mid-August.  He continued to pitch well after his return, though, winning the season's final game.

In 2006, Duke spent much of the year getting hit hard.  He pitched OK the first two months, but had ERAs over 6.00 in both June and July.  His ERA the last two months was 3.10.  A big part of the difference was improved control.  Duke walked 3.39 batters per 9 IP in the first half, only 2.19 in the second.  Opponents still batted .297 against him in the second half, though.  At times, he seemed to allow an endless stream of singles up the middle, possibly the result of hitters holding off and waiting for his curve, which at times seemed to be his only effective pitch.  He also had a very low K rate, and it actually dropped in the second half.  Duke had serious problems at the beginning of games, allowing 29 earned runs in the first inning, and didn't handle RH batters well enough, allowing an .823 OPS against them compared to .685 against LH batters.  Another concern for him was the team's defense, which was horrible all year.  Like Paul Maholm, Duke is a groundball pitcher.  He had a 1.78 ground out to air out ratio in 2006, 2.08 in 2007, and 1.56 in 2008, so he needs a strong defense behind him.

Although he opened 2007 as the team's #1 starter, things went downhill fast.  Duke started getting hammered right out of the gate and the carnage only stopped when he went on the DL with a sore elbow at the end of June.  He returned in September to get bombed in one start and then pitch well against a patchwork St. Louis lineup at the end of the season.  The opponents' batting numbers tell the story, as he was little more than a batting practice pitcher.  The most likely explanation seemed to be that his stuff, which was never his strong point, dropped off badly.  His fastball was mostly down in the mid-80s or lower and his curve seemed flat.  At the end of the year the Pirates claimed that they were unhappy that Duke hadn't taken proper care of his shoulder during the offseason, whatever that means.  Duke himself said his elbow—which is not expected to be a serious problem, although we've heard that before—bothered him much of the time.  The Pirates were reluctant to put him back in the rotation after he had a last, unsatisfactory rehab start, but the minor league season was over so he couldn't rehab any longer.  Once he was recalled, Duke sat out nine days before making a relief appearance and another week before making a start.

In 2008, Duke had largely the same season he had in 2006, which at least povides some indication that his elbow was bothering him in 2007.  His stuff rebounded, with his fastball generally in the upper 80s and occasionally a little higher, and his curve sharper.  His control remained good and he kept the ball in the park better than he had the previous year, but he simply remained too hittable, especially against RH hitters, who had an .816 OPS against him.  The one encouraging sign was that he rebounded well after a horrible July in which he had an ERA of 9.51 and an opponents' BA of .369.  In August and September his ERA was 3.84 and his opponents' BA was .275.

Duke fields his position well and has an outstanding move to first.  For his career, he's picked off 18 runners and allowed only 32 steals on 66 attempts.  He's a respectable hitter and one of the few Pirate pitchers who's a decent bunter:  he had 14 sacrifice bunts in 2009, tied for fourth in the NL.

Duke followed up his 2008 rebound with a stronger season in 2009, for a while reminding Pirate fans of the way he'd pitched his rookie year.  His stuff seemed sharper and he seemed to go after hitters more aggressively, which could account for the career high in HRs allowed.  Through the end of July he had an ERA of 3.26.  He also made his first All-Star team, albeit due to injuries.  Unfortunately, after July his ERA was 5.81.  It's hard to avoid the conclusion that much of the difference was the result of the team's defense.  Prior to the trades of Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez and Nyjer Morgan, the Pirates had one of the 3-4 best defenses in MLB, based on defensive efficiency.  The trades, however, resulted in large downgrades, especially at second and short.  Duke's reliance on his defense was evident in two late-season games.  In one, the Cubs tied a record by starting the game with eight straight hits.  Only one ball was hit hard and all four Pirate infielders failed to convert makeable plays.  (There was also a blown call at first.)  In the end, Duke was charged with seven earned runs when he could easily have had a scoreless inning.  In another game, Duke took a shutout into the fifth inning and should have been able to work out of a bases-loaded jam with no damage, but a bad throw by Ryan Doumit led to five runs, all of them earned.  Those two innings made the difference between an ERA of 3.55 and one of 4.06.  This isn't to say that Duke "should" have had an ERA of 3.55, as all pitchers have to put up with defensive lapses.  But because Duke is relatively hittable, he's prone to long sequences in which a lot of balls are being put into play and a failure to convert a batted ball into an out is more likely to saddle him with a big inning, a problem that occurred repeatedly in the last two months of 2009.  In any event, Duke is a solid pitcher at worse and can be a very good one when he has a good defense behind him.  Either he or Ross Ohlendorf should be the opening day starter in 2010.

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