ZACH DUKE

4/19/83; '01 20th; Waco, TX (HS)
L/L; 6-2, 212

Level	W-L-Sv	G	GS	IP	H	BB	K	ERA
2002 R	8-1-0	11	11	60.0	38	18	48	1.95
2003 A	8-7-0	26	26	141.2	124	46	113	3.11
2004 AA	5-1-0	9	9	51.1	41	10	36	1.58
2004 A+	10-5-0	17	17	97.0	73	20	106	1.39

Level	W-L-Sv	G	GS	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	OAVG	OOBP	OSLG
2005 NL	8-2-0	14	14	84.2	79	23	58	1.81	.253	.308	.343
2005 AAA	12-3-0	16	16	108.0	108	23	66	2.92	.267	.309	.395
2006 NL	10-15-0	34	34	215.1	255	68	117	4.47	.302	.358	.441
2007 NL	3-8-0	20	19	107.1	161	25	41	5.53	.359	.394	.547
2007 AAA	0-1-0	1	1	3.2	7	2	1	4.91	.438	.500	.500
2007 A-	1-0-0	1	1	5.2	3	2	3	1.59	.150	.261	.150
2007 R	0-0-0	2	2	6.2	5	2	3	1.35	.217	.280	.261

Duke followed a meteoric rise through the Pirates' system in 2004-5 with a mediocre year in his first full season.  He then struggled through a miserable 2007.

Duke originally signed too late to play in 2001, then was Bradenton's best pitcher, and the GCL's 19th best prospect, in 2002.  He made the jump to full season ball successfully in 2003, although he tailed off as the season progressed.  Conceivably, this was due to it being his first experience with the long season.  He had a number of dominant outings early in the year, but some bad ones later that inflated his ERA.  He broke out, however, in 2004, earning the organization's pitcher of the year award, as well as the equivalent award in the Carolina League despite being promoted in July.  His improvement was reportedly the result of an improved change and velocity that, according to some but not all reports, increased from 86-88 to 89-91, sometimes reaching 93.  He'd always had an outstanding curve and excellent control.  What drew the most accolades, though, was his feel for pitching.  He was regarded as having an extraordinary understanding of his craft, especially for a young pitcher.

Although it was originally thought that he'd return to AA for the beginning of 2005, the Pirates were so impressed with Duke in spring training that they sent him to AAA after seriously considering him for their rotation.  He pitched well there, although his peripheral stats weren't outstanding beyond his low walk total.  Considering how quickly he went through high A and AA, though, his showing was impressive, enough so that he was named the International League's 3rd best prospect.  The Pirates called him up and he made his first major league start on July 2, pitching a good game in a no-decision.  He then went four straight starts without allowing an earned run, although the last start was limited to two innings due to a rain delay.  He won his first six decisions before missing several weeks with an ankle sprain, an injury that may have cost him the Rookie of the Year award.  The Pirates debated whether to shut Duke down late in the season, as his workload had exceeded his previous high by about mid-August.  He continued to pitch well after his return, though, winning the season's final game.

In 2006, Duke spent much of the year getting hit hard.  He pitched OK the first two months, but had ERAs over 6.00 in both June and July.  His ERA the last two months, though, was 3.10.  A big part of the difference was improved control.  Duke walked 3.39 batters per 9 IP in the first half, only 2.19 in the second.  Opponents still batted .297 against him in the second half, though.  As with Paul Maholm, the main concern with Duke is that his stuff isn't good enough and that he's too hittable.  At times, he seemed to allow an endless stream of singles up the middle, possibly the result of hitters holding off and waiting for his curve, which at times seemed to be his only effective pitch.  He also had a very low K rate, and it actually dropped in the second half.  This doesn't conclusively prove anything, though; Mark Mulder had a low K rate his first year, as did Tom Glavine his first several years.  They both eventually developed the ability to produce swings and misses.  Duke had serious problems at the beginning of games, allowing 29 earned runs in the first inning, and didn't handle RH batters well enough, allowing an .823 OPS against them compared to .685 against LH batters.  Another concern for him was the team's defense, which was horrible all year.  Like Maholm, Duke is a groundball pitcher.  He had a 1.78 ground out to air out ratio in 2006 and 2.08 in 2007, so he needs a strong defense behind him.  A couple advantages he had were keeping the ball in the park—he allowed a HR only once every 12.7 IP—and holding runners on first, as he has an outstanding pickoff move.  He picked off seven, and only 13 of 25 runners stole successfully against him (and only five of ten in 2007).  He's also a decent hitter; he batted .191 with seven RBIs in 2006, and .250 in 2007.

Although he opened 2007 as the team's #1 starter, things went downhill fast.  Duke started getting hammered right out of the gate and the carnage only stopped when he went on the DL with a sore elbow at the end of June.  He returned in September to get bombed in one start and then pitch well against a patchwork St. Louis lineup at the end of the season.  The opponents' batting numbers tell the story, as he was little more than a batting practice pitcher.  The most likely explanation seemed to be that his stuff, which was never his strong point, dropped off badly.  His fastball was mostly down in the mid-80s or lower and his curve seemed flat.  At the end of the year the Pirates claimed that they were unhappy that Duke hadn't taken proper care of his shoulder during the offseason, whatever that means.  Duke himself said his elbow—which is not expected to be a serious problem, although we've heard that before—bothered him much of the time.  Whether these are just excuses is impossible to say.  The Pirates were reluctant to put him back in the rotation after he had a last, unsatisfactory rehab start, but the minor league season was over so he couldn't rehab any longer.  Once he was recalled, Duke sat out nine days before making a relief appearance and another week before making a start.  Jim Tracy did state that Duke would be back in the rotation in 2008, but Tracy is gone and new GM Neal Huntington might have different ideas.  If he continues to get hammered, it might be best for them to option him to AAA.  One reason that might be hard to do, though, is the fact that the team has no pitching depth, despite former GM Dave Littlefield's supposed "plan" of building around young pitching.  The best the Pirates can hope is that Duke will come to spring training healthier and that his stuff will rebound.

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