PAUL MAHOLM

6/25/82; '03 1st; Mississippi State Univ.
L/L; 6-2, 214

Level
W-L-Sv
G
GS
IP
H
 HR
BB
K
 BB/9 K/9 WHIP OAVG
ERA
2003 A-
2-1-0
8
8
34.1
25
 1
10
32
 2.62 8.39 1.02 .197
1.83
2004 A+
1-3-0
8
8
44.0
39
 2
15
28
 3.07 5.73 1.23 .245
1.84
2004 A
0-2-0
3
3
12.1
17
 2
10
12
 7.30 8.76 2.19 .354
9.49
2004 R
0-0-0
1
0
4.0
5
 0
1
2
 2.25 4.50 1.50 .294
2.25
2005 NL
3-1-0
6
6
41.1
31
 2
17
26
 3.70
5.66
1.16
.209
2.18
2005 AAA
1-1-0
6
6
35.2
40
 2
12
21
 3.03
5.30
1.46
.286
3.53
2005 AA
6-2-0
16
16
81.2
73
 5
26
75
 2.87
8.27
1.21
.243
3.20
2006 NL
8-10-0
30
30
176.0
202
 19
81
117
 4.14
5.98
1.61
.295
4.76
2007 NL
10-15-0
29
29
177.2
204
 22
49
105
 2.48
5.32
1.47
.295
5.02
2008 NL
9-9-0
31
31
206.1
201
21
63
139
2.75
6.06
1.28
.263
3.71

The Bucs took Maholm with the 8th pick in the 2003 draft.  In his junior season in college, Maholm went 9-2, 2.76, allowing 102 hits and 39 walks, and striking out 101 in 107.2 IP.  Maholm and Bryan Bullington were products of the Pirates' preference, at the time, for using their first round picks on "safe" choices who were expected to reach the majors soon, specifically college pitchers.  Maholm was effective at Williamsport, as would be expected from a college pitcher taken in the first round, and he was chosen the league's 14th best prospect.  Interestingly, NY-P League managers and scouts had a higher opinion of Tom Gorzelanny than of Maholm.  He started 2004 at Lynchburg and posted an outstanding ERA, but his other #s were less impressive, especially his low K rate.  Maholm unfortunately suffered a serious injury when he was hit in the face with a line drive.  The blow fractured the bones around his eye, requiring surgery.  He returned in August, but struggled badly as he was suffering from double vision and needed a second facial surgery.

Maholm erased any concerns about his health by impressing the Pirates in training camp, enough so that they assigned him to Altoona, instead of Lynchburg, to start the 2005 season.  It had originally been expected that he'd open at Lynchburg.  He made a strong showing in AA, with a much-improved K rate, and won a promotion to Indianapolis, where he struggled in six starts.  He then got called up to Pittsburgh and made six major league starts, pitching very well in all but one and twice allowing no runs and just four hits over eight innings.  Opponents hit just 209/304/304 against him in the majors.  He did have some trouble with his control and didn't fan many hitters, but that wasn't surprising given his experience level.

Maholm spent 2006 in the rotation and struggled for much of the year. The problem isn't hard to identify from the stats:  he allowed huge numbers of baserunners, through both walks and hits.  Of the 83 pitchers in MLB who qualified for the ERA title, Maholm had the second worst WHIP and second worst opponents' OBP.  Most of the time he simply was too hittable and that probably led to him nibbling around the strike zone too much.  He'll never be overpowering.  His strength is good command of four more or less average pitches:  a fastball that's usually around 88-91, some times a touch higher, plus a curve, slider and change.  On the plus side, Maholm significantly improved his performance in the second half.  His WHIP, in particular, went from 1.78 before the All-Star break to 1.37 after, while his opponents' OBP went from .400 to .343.  Unfortunately, he was shut down in mid-September with a sore shoulder.  Like Ian Snell and Gorzelanny, he set a career high for IP and showed the effects.

In 2007, Maholm again struggled early in the season.  After the first three weeks of May, his ERA was 5.82.  From then until the end of August, however, his ERA was 3.69.  He had to be shut down at the beginning of September due to back problems.  He came back late in the month to pitch two games and it was a disaster, as he allowed 16 earned runs in just 4.2 IP.  It's hard to believe he was healthy and hard not to wonder why the Pirates didn't just shut him down.  It's also puzzling why Jim Tracy left him in to give up 21 hits.  Tracy also recklessly allowed Tom Gorzelanny to far exceed his previous high workload for a season in a fruitless effort to reach 15 wins; the Pirates will be fortunate to escape any lasting consequences from Tracy risking their young pitchers like that.  The misadventure with Maholm had the unhappy effect of ballooning his ERA from 4.32 to 5.02, making it look like he regressed in 2007 when in fact he improved.  His WHIP, while still not good, dropped by 12% to 1.42 even with the awful last two games.  This was entirely due to a large drop in walks.

Maholm took a large step forward in 2008, improving across the board and becoming the ace of a horrible pitching staff.  The improvement began in late May.  He had an ERA of 5.11 going into his last start of the month.  From that point on his ERA was 3.11.  As the year went along, he became more and more of a groundball machine:  his ground out to air out ratio was 1.33 before the All-Star break and an amazing 3.10 after.  The Pirates credited his improvement partly to outstanding conditioning, something they're hoping will rub off on other pitchers on the staff.  Whether he can sustain his improvement may depend on the Pirates' defense.  Throughout his career, the Pirates have ranked at or near the bottom of the majors in defensive efficiency.  For a groundball pitcher with a somewhat low K rate that can be a problem.  Maholm had a much lower opponents' batting average on balls in play than any of the team's other regular starters, so his success may not be sustainable if the Pirates don't improve defensively.  Maholm has a huge platoon split, with an opponents' OPS more than 200 points higher for his career against LH batters than against RH batters.  This split got even larger in 2008, although it was mainly because he dominated LH batters.  PNC Park is very kind to Maholm:  his career ERA is 3.57 at home and 5.14 on the road.  (Without those two awful starts at the end of 2007, the latter figure is 4.70.)  Maholm has a very good pickoff move; he's difficult to steal against and usually ranks near the top in pickoffs.  He should be the overwhelming favorite to start on opening day in 2009.

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