JASON BAY

9/20/78; '00 22nd (Montreal); Gonzaga Univ.
R/R; 6-2, 200

Level	BA	OBP	SA	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS
2000 A- (Mon)	.304	.358	.385	135	5	0	2	11	25	17	4
2001 A+ (Mon)	.195	.306	.268	123	4	1	1	18	26	10	3
2001 A (Mon)	.362	.449	.572	318	20	4	13	48	62	15	2
2002 AA (NYM)	.290	.383	.477	107	4	2	4	15	23	13	3
2002 AA (SD)	.309	.411	.568	81	5	2	4	13	22	4	2
2002 A+ (NYM)	.272	.363	.437	261	12	2	9	34	54	22	2
2003 NL (SD)	.250	.400	.750	8	1	0	1	1	1	0	0
2003 NL	.287	.421	.529	87	7	1	4	19	29	3	1
2003 AAA (SD)	.303	.410	.541	307	11	1	20	55	71	23	4
2004 NL	.282	.358	.550	411	24	4	26	41	129	4	6
2004 AAA	.400	.538	.900	10	2	0	1	3	5	0	0
2005 NL	.306	.402	.559	599	44	6	32	95	142	21	1
2006 NL	.286	.396	.532	570	29	3	35	102	156	11	2
2007 NL	.247	.327	.418	538	25	2	21	59	141	4	1

After becoming the first Pirate and Canadian to win Rookie of the Year in 2004, Bay enjoyed two seasons as an outstanding, middle-of-the-order hitter. He started the 2006 All-Star game, thanks to some ballot-box stuffing by Pirate fans. Unfortunately, in 2007 he suffered a drastic decline in performance, ending up as one of the weakest hitters in the majors at his position.

The Pirates acquired Bay, Oliver Perez and the since-released Cory Stewart from the Padres for Giles in 2003. He had put up big #s in the minors, but some reservations remained about him because he was usually a little old for the levels he played at. After a brief debut in 2003, he missed the first six weeks of 2004 due to labrum surgery. Once he was able to play, he had an outstanding year, hitting for power and average, and showing a penchant for big games—he's one of only two active players to put up two 8-RBI games, one each in 2003 and 2004.

Bay stepped his game up in 2005 and 2006, scoring and driving over 100 runs both years and posting outstanding power #s. Those numbers are all the more impressive considering that PNC Park is very difficult for RH power hitters. Although he didn't have a platoon split in 2004, in 2005 Bay hit 271/395/465 with 9 HRs at home and 337/408/644 with 23 HRs on the road. In 2006, he slugged .558 with 22 HRs on the road and .504 with 13 HRs at home. His walk rate in both years was dramatically higher than in 2004, partly of course because he was often pitched around, being the only run producer in one of baseball's worst lineups. He improved his K rate from 2004 to 2005, but it edged back upward in 2006. He runs well and is a very efficient base stealer. In 2005, he threatened the record for the most steals in a year without being caught until he got thrown out in the next-to-last game. Since 2005, however, he hasn't run much due to knee problems, including a left knee that required surgery in the off-season. To top it all off, Bay played every game in 2005, and also in 2006 until he missed two games with a minor injury in mid-August.

In 2007, Bay appeared to be heading for another outstanding season as he was hitting 312/382/540 on June 3. After that, the bottom fell out. He posted an OPS of .568 in June and slugged below .400 in each of the last four months, usually well below. There's no definite explanation for what happened. The best-case scenario is that he was affected by tendonitis in his right knee, which eventually bothered him so much that he sat out most of September. Bay himself denied that the knee was the problem, although it's hard to understand how he could hit so well the first two months and then collapse completely unless there was a physical explanation. A worst-case scenario is that he simply lost bat speed, as his hit chart shows that his power to LF, and hence his ability to pull the ball, dropped off badly. If it's the latter, he's not going to return to his prior levels.

Bay was above-average defensively until 2007, which is particularly important with the large LF in PNC. In 2007 his defense clearly suffered from the knee problem, as he became tentative in going after fly balls. His arm has always been a drawback, as it's been weak since the shoulder surgery. Some teams, like St. Louis, run on him relentlessly.

In November 2005, the Pirates signed Bay to a four-year contract that buys out his arbitration years. As a result, he, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez and Xavier Nady will all become eligible for free agency after the 2009 season. Bay's knee will be treated with rest rather than surgery in the off-season, so the Pirates will have to hope he's at full strength and able to rebound in 2008. The Pirates tried to trade Bay over the winter, but they could not get their asking price, which was probably for two potential impact prospects. They decided to stick with him until they can get more talent in return. If he rebounds, they will face the question whether to trade him before the deadline.

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