ZACH DUKE

4/19/83; '01 20th; Waco, TX (HS)
L/L; 6-2, 212

Level	W-L-Sv	G	GS	IP	H	BB	K	ERA
2002 R	8-1-0	11	11	60.0	38	18	48	1.95
2003 A	8-7-0	26	26	141.2	124	46	113	3.11
2004 AA	5-1-0	9	9	51.1	41	10	36	1.58
2004 A+	10-5-0	17	17	97.0	73	20	106	1.39

Level	W-L-Sv	G	GS	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	OAVG	OOBP	OSLG
2005 NL	8-2-0	14	14	84.2	79	23	58	1.81	.253	.308	.343
2005 AAA	12-3-0	16	16	108.0	108	23	66	2.92	.267	.309	.395

Duke has had a meteoric rise the last two years. He had a breakout season in 2004, earning the organization's pitcher of the year award, as well as the equivalent award in the Carolina League despite being promoted in July. He also was named that league's 4th best prospect, and best pitching prospect, and in addition was named the 6th best prospect in the Eastern League. Although it was originally thought that he'd return to AA for the beginning of 2005, seeing as how he had pitched there only briefly, the Pirates were so impressed with Duke in spring training that they sent him to AAA after seriously considering him for their rotation. He pitched well there, although his peripheral stats weren't outstanding beyond his low walk total. Considering how quickly he went through high A and AA, though, his showing was impressive, enough so that he was named the International League's 3rd best prospect. The Pirates called him up and he made his first major league start on July 2, pitching a good game in a no-decision. He then went four straight starts without allowing an earned run, although the last start was limited to two innings due to a rain delay. He won his first six decisions before missing several weeks with an ankle sprain, an injury that may have cost him the Rookie of the Year award. The Pirates debated whether to shut Duke down late in the season, as his workload had exceeded his previous high by about mid-August. He continued to pitch well after his return, though, winning the season's final game.

Duke originally signed too late to play in 2001, then was Bradenton's best pitcher, and the GCL's 19th best prospect, in 2002. He made the jump to full season ball successfully in 2003, although he tailed off as the season progressed. Conceivably, this was due to it being his first experience with the long season. He had a number of dominant outings early in the year, but some bad ones later that inflated his ERA. His breakout in 2004 was reportedly the result of an improved change and velocity that, according to some but not all reports, increased from 86-88 to 89-91, sometimes reaching 93. He's always had an outstanding curve and excellent control. Most important of all, though, is his feel for pitching. He's regarded as having an extraordinary understanding of his craft, especially for a young pitcher. He also has an exceptional pickoff move.

Duke sometimes gets characterized as a soft-tosser, which in my opinion isn't accurate. In the Carolina League he showed the ability to dominate, fanning over a batter an inning. His K rate declined after he reached AA. I think the drop may be caused in part by his rapid advancement, and that it may go up again after he's had a chance to learn the hitters in the majors. As an example, Ian Snell's K rate dropped during his first couple months in AA, but it went back up to one per IP when he spent a full year there. Tom Glavine—the gold standard for finesse lefties—saw his K rate decline rapidly when he moved up quickly through the minors, but he posted good K rates throughout most of his lengthy prime in the majors. Duke will open 2006 in the Pirates' rotation. There's even been some speculation that he could be the opening day starter.

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