TIM ALDERSON

11/3/88; 1st '07 (San Francisco); Scottsdale, AZ (HS)
R/R; 6-6, 217

Level	W-L-Sv	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	BB/9	K/9	WHIP	OAVG	ERA
2007 R (SF)	0-0-0	3	2	5.0	4	0	0	12	0.0	21.6	0.80	.211	0.00
2008 A+ (SF)	13-4-0	26	26	145.1	125	4	34	124	2.1	7.7	1.09	.235	2.79
2009 AA (SF)	6-1-0	13	13	72.2	76	5	14	46	1.7	5.7	1.24	.265	3.47
2009 AA	3-1-0	7	7	38.2	39	4	13	18	3.0	4.2	1.35	.257	4.66
2009 A+ (SF)	1-1-0	5	5	26.0	31	4	3	20	1.0	6.9	1.31	.292	4.15

The Pirates obtained Alderson for 2B Freddy Sanchez.  Going into 2009, Baseball America rated Alderson the 4th best prospect in a loaded Giants' system.  He's considered extremely polished for such a young pitcher, with excellent command.  Obviously, he rarely walks anybody.  He throws both two- and four-seam fastballs which, prior to 2009, registered in the upper-80s to low-90s.  His out pitch is a curve and he's developing a change.  He has an odd delivery that may add deception to his pitches, but it also raises the usual, possibly misplaced injury concerns.  Left-handed batters were hitting about 60 points higher against him than right-handed batters in 2009 at the time of the trade, so improving the change would probably help quite a bit.  Alderson had a very impressive 2008 season in the hitting-happy California League, although the Giants' affiliate, San Jose, plays in a pitchers' park, at least relative to the rest of the league.  He wasn't as dominant in 2009, with his K rate especially dropping off, but he was still pitching very well as a 20-year-old in AA.  After the trade he was somewhat less effective than before, mainly due to weaker control.  He was pitching about the same as he did with the Giants until his last start, when he allowed eleven hits, three walks and seven runs over five innings.  Interestingly, in thirteen at-bats in AA, Alderson had four hits, including two HRs, one with each team.

Alderson generated a fair amount of controversy after the trade, as various commentators went to some lengths to opine that he's not likely to become more than a long reliever or fifth starter.  It's hard to ignore the fact that he was generally rated as a top prospect until the Pirates acquired him, an interesting phenomenon that also occurred to some degree with Pedro Alvarez.  The primary basis for the skepticism was Alderson's velocity, which was down throughout 2009 to the mid- to upper-80s.  Scouts also believed that his curve was no longer as sharp, leaving him to rely on his outstanding control.  Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus did some research that indicated that RHPs with below-average velocity are rarely successful in the majors.  Of course, there's no certainty that his velocity will remain where it was in 2009.  Ross Ohlendorf, for example, saw his velocity drop to the 89-91 range when he came to the majors in late 2008 and it stayed there until mid-2009, when it returned to the mid-90s.  Even before 2009, a lot of the excitement that Alderson generated came from the possibility that, given his size, he was projectable and could add velocity.  In fact, Pirates' GM Neal Huntington alluded to the possibility of Alderson getting stronger in his statement after the trade, and Alderson's detractors have generally ignored the fact that he was pitching in AA at a young age.  Of course, the idea of adding velocity is always an iffy proposition.  Scouts routinely seem to believe that any young pitcher 6'4" or taller can add velocity, but it doesn't happen often.  In any event, Alderson should open 2010 in the Indianapolis rotation.

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