BRAD LINCOLN

5/25/85; '06 1st; Univ. of Houston
L/R; 6-0, 200

Level
W-L-Sv
G
GS
IP
H
 HR
BB
K
 BB/9
K/9
WHIP
OAVG
ERA
2004 NCAA
3-2-0
12
10
56.2
60
 2
19
35
 3.0
5.6
1.39
 
4.29
2005 NCAA
4-7-0
18
16
102.0
124
 12
25
106
 2.2
9.4
1.46
 
4.76
2006 NCAA
12-2-0
17
17
127.2
91
 8
32
152
 2.3
10.7
0.96
.198
1.69
2006 A
1-2-0
4
4
16.0
25
 2
6
10
 3.4
5.6
2.00
.368
6.75
2006 R
0-0-0
2
2
7.2
6
 0
1
9
 1.2
10.6
0.91
.222
0.00
2007 INJURED
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008 A+
1-5-0
8
8
41.2
42
5
11
29
2.4
6.3
1.27
.259
4.75
2008 A
5-5-0
11
11
62.0
72
8
6
46
0.9
6.7
1.26
.288
4.65
2009 AAA
6-2-0
12
12
61.1
72
7
10
42
1.5
6.2
1.34
.300
.470
2009 AA
1-5-0
13
13
75.0
63
4
18
65
2.2
7.8
1.08
.228
2.28

Lincoln jumped up the charts with a big showing in the Cape Cod League in 2005, then dominated throughout the 2006 collegiate season. He throws around 91-93, sometimes reaching the mid-90s, and has a very good curve and developing change. Baseball America rated him as having the best command of any college pitcher in the draft. As he's only 6'0", he'll probably face doubts about his health and stamina, but he's consistently held his velocity late into games. Lincoln also played 1B and led his team in RBIs. He was considered good enough that he might have made it to the majors as a hitter. He signed two weeks after the draft for a reported $2.75M bonus. He threw a few innings at Bradenton, then moved up to Hickory, where he struggled. His season ended with an oblique strain. It's possible he might have been able to return from it, but the Pirates appeared just as happy to shut him down until instructional league. He then had to be shut down there as well, with the same problem.

Unfortunately, a more ominous problem than the oblique strain developed at the start of spring training, as Lincoln was shut down with a muscle strain in his forearm, a problem that can be evidence of ligament damage. History wasn't exactly encouraging. The Pirates had a string, broken only (so far) by Paul Maholm, of six first round pitchers (Kris Benson, Clint Johnston, Bobby Bradley, Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten and Bryan Bullington) whose careers were ruined or severely interrupted by major arm injuries. Some people might conclude that using first round picks on pitchers is a bad idea, but learning from experience was never the team's strength under Dave Littlefield. Candor wasn't, either, and the team insisted that Lincoln did not have a serious injury. And, as always, their initial statements soon became no longer operative. Lincoln had Tommy John surgery at the end of spring training and missed the 2007 season.

Lincoln's rehab proceeded on schedule and he joined Hickory in mid-May, followed by a promotion to Lynchburg in July. Although some fans were put off by the ERAs, Lincoln's return was successful. He stayed healthy, his fastball sat around 93, and his control was very good. It may have been a little too good, as he had a moderate gopher ball problem, but one article said he was concentrating mainly on throwing strikes. He actually didn't allow many baserunners. He tended to pitch very well for a while and then give everything up in just one inning.

In 2009, Lincoln opened with Altoona and had a breakout season. Well, half-season, anyway. He dominated in AA, allowing few baserunners, maintaining a good K rate, and getting better as the season went along. His fastball remained in the same range it had been in when he was drafted and his curve had excellent break. The Pirates moved him up to AAA at mid-season and he struggled at times there. He has excellent control and may have been catching too much of the plate; he actually had a lower walk rate in AAA than in AA. He had more trouble with gopher balls and also had a lot of trouble with LH batters, who hit .352 against him as opposed to .259 by RH batters. This probably shows his change needs work and, in fact, that was the main issue the Pirates had with his performance in AAA. Given that he has excellent command, there's no reason to think he can't improve. In fact, he allowed no runs, five hits and no walks, while fanning eleven, in eleven innings in his last two starts, so he may have been catching on. As a bonus, Lincoln figures to be a threat with the bat, as he's shown by going 4-for-13 so far in his limited chances. He's not eligible for the Rule 5 draft yet, so the Pirates won't put him on the 40-man roster in the fall. He'll probably be part of the competition for 2010 rotation spots in spring training, but it's extremely likely that he'll open the season back at Indianapolis, with a debut in Pittsburgh later in the season.

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