IAN SNELL

10/30/81; '00 26th; Dover, DE (HS)
R/R; 5-11, 160

Level	W-L-Sv	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	BB/9	K/9	WHIP	OAVG	ERA
2000 R	1-0-0	4	4	7.2	5	1	1	8	1.17	9.40	0.78	.200	2.35
2001 A-	7-0-0	10	9	64.2	55	2	10	56	1.39	7.71	1.01	.230	1.39
2001 R	3-0-0	3	3	19.0	12	0	5	13	2.37	6.16	0.89	.185	0.47
2002 A	11-6-0	24	22	139.2	127	8	45	149	2.90	9.60	1.23	.243	2.71
2003 AA	4-0-0	6	6	36.2	36	2	10	23	2.45	5.65	1.25	.252	1.96
2003 A+	10-3-0	20	20	116.1	105	3	33	122	2.55	9.44	1.19	.244	3.33
2004 NL	0-1-0	3	1	12.0	14	2	9	9	6.75	6.75	1.92	.298	7.50
2004 AA	11-7-0	26	26	151.0	147	16	40	142	2.38	8.46	1.24	.216	3.16
2005 NL	1-2-0	15	5	42.0	43	5	24	34	5.14	7.29	1.60	.267	5.14
2005 AAA	11-3-0	18	18	112.0	90	14	23	104	1.85	8.36	1.01	.216	3.70
2006 NL	14-11-0	32	32	186.0	198	29	74	169	3.58	8.18	1.46	.277	4.74
2007 NL	9-12-0	32	32	208.0	209	22	68	177	2.94	7.66	1.33	.264	3.76
2008 NL	7-12-0	31	31	164.1	201	18	89	135	4.87	7.39	1.76	.304	5.42

Snell is one of a number of late-round draft picks who emerged as excellent prospects from the three years in which Mickey White was the Pirates' scouting director.  He tended to get off to slow starts in the minors, but in both 2002 and 2003 improved rapidly, earning a mid-season promotion to AA in 2003.  He had a consistently excellent K rate in class A.  It dropped in his brief time in AA in 2003, but was very good there in 2004, when he was chosen as the RHP on the Eastern League's post-season All-Star team.  He was called up briefly in August due to injuries and got in one game, then came up in September after the Eastern League playoffs were over.  He started 2005 in the AAA rotation and, most of the time, pitched brilliantly.  His peripheral stats were much better than his ERA, as he held opponents to a .216 BA and .258 OBP, and fanned nearly a batter an inning.  Although he dominated in most of his starts—including a complete game no-hitter—when he didn't dominate he tended to get bombed.  This is reflected in his allowing 14 HRs and a .373 opponents' slugging average that, while still low, isn't as impressive as his other stats.

Snell throws a fastball typically around 93-94, sometimes harder, and a breaking ball described by some as a slider and by others, including Snell, as a hard curve.  He's never developed a really good change, which probably accounts for the fact that he's always had much more trouble against LH batters than RH.  The failure to change speeds effectively may also have contributed to his occasional bad starts in AAA, as he sometimes relied too heavily on trying to throw the ball past hitters.  He showed the same sort of tendency after he was called up in late June of 2005.  He did well at times, but he had innings in which nearly every batter hit a rocket.  He pitched mainly in relief until he was sent back down for Indianapolis' successful playoff push.  He came back to the majors for three starts.  The first didn't go well, but in his second start back he threw eight innings of three-hit, shutout ball to beat Roger Clemens and the Astros.

Snell went into 2006 expected to return to AAA or maybe get a spot in the bullpen, but he joined the rotation when Kip Wells had another in his long series of injuries.  Snell's performance in 2006 was variable.  He allowed a lot of hits and a few too many walks.  His biggest problem, though, was with gopher balls, as he allowed 29, possibly another sign of a need to change speeds better.  LH batters hit 18 of the HRs and slugged .526 against him.  Snell's final numbers were inflated somewhat by a terrible start to the season, as he allowed 16 ER in 15 IP in his first three starts.  In 2007 he improved in some key areas, allowing only one HR every 9.5 IP after allowing one every 6.4 IP in 2006, walking fewer batters and reducing his WHIP from 1.46 to 1.33.  The improved control was accompanied by improved efficiency:  the average number of pitches he threw in an inning dropped from 16.3 in 2006 to 15.0.  Like Tom Gorzelanny and Matt Capps, Snell is a flyball pitcher.  He still had more trouble with LH batters, but they slugged 79 points less against him than in 2006.  He fell off in the second half, posting an ERA of 4.83 compared to 2.93 in the first half.  He recovered from ERAs over 6.00 in July and August, however, to post a 1.64 ERA in September.

Snell can't hit at all, but otherwise is a very good athlete who runs and fields his position well.  In fact, he's occasionally served as a pinch runner.  As a very small RHP, he's had to face a lot of doubts about his ability to be a starter, but his 208 IP in 2007 should answer them.  As with Gorzelanny, the Pirates could rely on Snell to stick around a while almost every time out:  he had only one outing shorter than five innings, and that one went four.

Snell and Gorzelanny were expected to be the team's top two starters in 2009, but they both ran into severe problems.  Snell started slowly the first month, then fell off a cliff in the next three, posting monthly ERAs of 6.11, 7.43 and 6.20.  The source of the problem isn't easy to figure.  Early in the season his stuff definitely was off, as he was frequently throwing only in the upper 80s.  He also struggled with the strike zone, something that had seldom been a problem for him before.  Overall, he just got hammered, allowing opposing hitters to post a line of 304/385/474.  That's startling for a pitcher with his stuff.  He eventually skipped a couple starts with a sore elbow in late June and early July.  Although he continued to pitch poorly for a month after returning, he posted a 3.78 ERA over his last nine starts.  The Pirates seemed to blame the problems partly on poor concentration and poor conditioning.  When he was in the minors, he was reputed to be the best-conditioned player in the system, but he's clearly gotten heavier the last couple years.  The Pirates have stated that no pitcher other than Paul Maholm will go into 2009 with a guaranteed rotation spot, but Snell's stuff is so good, most of the time at least, that they'll undoubtedly be very reluctant to remove him.

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