PEDRO ALVAREZ

2/6/87; '08 1st; Vanderbilt Univ.
L/R; 6-2, 212

Level
BA
OBP
SA
AB
2B
3B
HR
BB
K
SB
CS
2006 NCAA
.329
.456
.675
240
15
1
22
57
64
7
3
2007 NCAA
.386
.463
.684
272
21
3
18
40
65
6
2
2008 NCAA
.317
.424
.593
167
15
2
9
28
28
1
1
2009 AA
.333
.419
.590
222
18
0
13
34
59
1
0
2009 A+
.247
.342
.486
243
14
1
14
37
70
1
1

The Pirates garnered significant publicity by drafting Alvarez and then, seemingly, signing him for a $6M bonus.  Alvarez was considered by many the top talent in the 2008 draft class from the day he set foot on the Vanderbilt campus.  As the numbers show, he was a prolific power hitter his first two years in college.  He also has performed very well in wood bat tournaments.  The Pirates, however, had increasingly alienated their fans by their refusal to pursue expensive players in the draft.  The fans' distrust of the team's willingness to try to improve reached a high point with its decision to draft a reliever, Dan Moskos, with the fourth pick in the 2007 draft in a move obviously based on cheapness.  With Alvarez being a client of Scott Boras, fans remained suspicious that the team would draft, and then sign, him.  The Pirates addressed that doubt by selecting Alvarez and signing him sometime around the midnight deadline for a bonus of $6M.  Alvarez, however, then refused to sign the deal, as Boras claimed that the agreement had occurred after midnight.  The result was a grievance filed by the union against MLB that was ultimately settled when the Pirates and Alvarez agreed to a four-year major league contract worth a guaranteed $6.355M.

As far as on-field ability is concerned, the principal question mark about Alvarez has been his defense.  He has a strong arm, but has been erratic at third.  Some scouts consider him athletic enough to make sufficient progress to stay at third as an average fielder.  Others, not including the Pirates or Alvarez himself, believe he'll have to move to first.  A bigger question mark arose, however, when he was hit by a pitch early in the 2008 season and broke the hamate bone in his right hand.  Numerous articles at Baseball America and elsewhere, as well as pre-draft statements from Pirates GM Neal Huntington concerning medical advice he'd received, indicated that an injury of that sort may detract from a hitter's power for a year or so, but should eventually cause no loss of ability.  Alvarez hit well after his return from the injury, just not as well as expected from the top talent in the draft.

The Pirates initially hoped to sign Alvarez quickly so he could play for two months in the minors, but Boras followed his standard practice of refusing to negotiate until shortly before the August 15 midnight deadline.  The result was a dispute that drew considerable attention until the settlement occurred.*  Alvarez will receive a little more guaranteed money than the bonus he originally agreed to, but the deal could end up netting him somewhat more if he manages to reach the majors quickly and stay there.  From the Pirates' standpoint, the money will be spread out over more time than a minor league deal.  There's a provision for a fifth year in which the Pirates will pay Alvarez $1.63M, but he will have the ability to void it and go to arbitration if he's eligible.  To make a couple points clear that always seem to come up:  the timeline by which Alvarez will become eligible for arbitration and free agency will not change in any way.  The only difference is that the Pirates had to put Alvarez on the 40-man roster immediately and will have to start using options as soon as they send him to the minors.

Even after all the legal craziness got resolved, controversy seemed to follow Alvarez, although he created some of it himself.  He showed up to minicamp overweight, as it became apparent that Boras had not been truthful during the negotiations when he told the Pirates Alvarez was working out regularly.  In fact, Alvarez had been unable to work out sufficiently due to tendonitis in his knees, which was concerning in and of itself for such a young guy.  He came to spring training in much better shape, although comments about his conditioning continued.  The fact is, he's simply a very big guy, especially his lower half.

Once baseball actually started, doom and gloom stories became the norm because Alvarez got off to a slow start with Lynchburg.  He showed huge power as expected, but he fanned a great deal, couldn't hit LHPs, and seemed to spend most of his time in slumps.  He did show a flair for the dramatic, with a number of key, late inning HRs, but that's a double-edged sword.  In class A, the good pitchers are almost all in the rotations, so Alvarez was probably taking advantage of weaker pitchers.  Much of his struggling seemed to result from impatience, as pitchers simply weren't throwing him many strikes.  Once he started to hit better, the Pirates quickly promoted him to Altoona.  After a much briefer slow start, he began hammering the ball.  He posted an OPS of .977 in July and 1.136 in August.  To some extent, it might have helped him to face better pitchers who were less afraid to challenge him.  He even hit LHPs respectably in AA, with a line of 324/360/451.  He continued to strike out a lot, but that's just going to be part of the deal with him.  Alvarez' defense remains a controversial topic.  He committed 25 errors on the season, but that's not an alarming total for a guy in his first year as a pro, playing in the minors on teams that generally had poor defensive first basemen.  Alvarez doesn't have great range and he has trouble throwing on the run, as his size makes it difficult for him to control his body adequately.  The Pirates continue to maintain that he'll stay at third, but events may intervene.  First base is an unsettled position for the major league team, and third base should be given the lack of evidence that Andy LaRoche can hit decently in the majors.  If Alvarez is hitting well come June, the Pirates should be looking for some place to put him.


*The blogosphere produced a comical explosion of conspiracy and apocalypse theories duing the pendency of the grievance.  Alvarez was going to become a free agent, Boras was going to invalidate the draft, the Pirates were going to be found liable for zillions in damages, you name it.  Even generally responsible outlets like Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America railed against MLB and the Pirates, and depicted an overwhelming union case that would blow MLB and the Pirates to smithereens.  In actuality, the grievance was filed not by Boras but by the union, which was suing to uphold the signing deadline.  That was hardly a way to go about invalidating the draft.  Furthermore, in the end both MLB and the union pressured the Pirates and Boras, respectively, to settle their differences, with the end result being a contract that wasn't dramatically more lucrative for Alvarez than the original deal.  For its part, MLB's concessions to the union amounted to little more than a promise to be more careful next time about the midnight deadline.  The MLBPA, which has a long history of trouncing MLB in legal proceedings, would hardly have settled for such limited gains if its case had been so overwhelming.  The more likely scenario was indicated by the news after the settlement that Royals' top pick Eric Hosmer, another Boras client, had also agreed to a deal after the deadline, as the Pirates had alleged.  The union was probably concerned about the arbitrator reaching the obvious conclusion that Boras, and hence the union, were insisting on adherence to the deadline only when it suited their purposes, since Hosmer was happy with his deal.  Such hypocrisy would have undermined the union's claim that the Pirates and MLB were taking advantage of Alvarez by going past the deadline, when Boras was happy to go past the deadline for a deal he liked more.  Boras was also widely rumored to have gotten a deal for Julio Borbon the previous year.  He was obviously quite familiar with MLB's tendency to stretch the deadline, probably more so than the Pirates themselves.  The claim made by both BP and BA that the Pirates had "taken advantage" of Alvarez, as if he was proceeding without representation, was ludicrous.

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