Battle Ground: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the second biggest battleground state in this election. Its 21 electoral votes can make or break each candidate. Its diverse makeup of rural conservative voters and liberal urbanites mean campaigns have to appeal to both ends of the political spectrum. With the significance of this election becoming all too real, Pennsylvania is one of the most visited states on the campaign trial. Issues such as the economy, national security, and ethics issues are at the center of this election. If any candidate is going to win this election, they must appeal specifically to Pennsylvania voters, and exhibit traits that establish them as the next president of the United States.

Economically, Pennsylvania is a good representation of the country as a whole. Its economy is diverse with major agricultural and manufacturing sectors, as well as new high-tech and service sectors. Both Kerry and Bush have tried to capitalize on the condition of the state’s economy, and have appealed to voters in different ways. However, the truth is that Pennsylvania’s economy favors neither candidate. When Bush took office in January 2001, the state’s unemployment rate was 4.2%. By early 2003, that had risen to 5.9%. However, job growth has since steadied, and by September 2004 the unemployment rate had fallen to 5.3%. Over the course of the bush Presidency, Pennsylvania has bled manufacturing jobs. Despite this hemorrhage, new emerging sectors have compensated for this anemia. One issue that has been both praised and scrutinized throughout this election is the tax cuts. Overall, these cuts served to bolster Pennsylvania’s economy, by encouraging consumer spending. However, the outsourcing of jobs has hurt the state. Although these facts may seem to give John Kerry the edge, low union enrollment may inhibit the gains Kerry has made from the slow job growth. Both candidates have their own plans to boost the economy and create jobs. President Bush wants to make the tax cuts permanent, and possibly implement another round of cuts. On outsourcing, George Bush wants to provide tax cuts to encourage hiring and improve the quality of the U.S. workforce through re-education programs. John Kerry has proposed eliminating the tax cuts for those making over $200,000 a year, while keeping the cuts for the middle and lower class. To deal with outsourcing, Kerry wants to eliminate the tax incentives for corporations to outsource jobs. Traditionally, Democrats have been seen to be stronger regarding the economy. However, many critics claim Kerry’s policies will not raise enough money to cover the spending he has proposed, and his strict proposals to discourage outsourcing could encourage corporations to establish themselves abroad. In retrospect, the huge deficit created by the Bush administration has plagued any spending bills they have proposed, creating concerns over the long term integrity of the tax cuts and other economic stimulus plans. Overall, the economy of Pennsylvania gives neither candidate a significant advantage.

Terrorism and national security are two very controversial topics in this election. Both candidates must pay extra attention to these issues, as they appeal to both right and left wing voters. The issues of national security of terrorism seem to concern the nation as a while, rather then Pennsylvania. However, the hijacked plane that crashed in the state during the 9/11 attacks drives these issues home for Pennsylvanian voters. In Pennsylvania, national security has consistently shown to be one of the hottest topics among likely voters. Polls have shown however that many have reluctance over the war in Iraq. Each candidate has a variety of policies that address these issues. President Bush has consistently said that Iraq is central to the war on terror, and that the institution of democracy there will encourage neighboring nations to follow suit. To enhance security Bush wants to train 125,000 Iraqi security forces by the end of this year, and an additional 75,000 by next summer. He has proposed harder attacks and operations on towns occupied by rebel forces, and those part of the Sunni triangle. To combat terrorism by improving national security, President Bush wants to dramatically increase spending on homeland security, and increase border patrols. He is pushing for the complete renewal of the controversial USA Patriot Act. John Kerry says that the war in Iraq was a diversion from the war in Afghanistan and the war on terrorism, however agrees with the President on the necessity of democracy in Iraq. The focus of Kerry’s plan for Iraq centers on multinational participation in the reconstruction effort. He wants NATO to help train Iraqi security forces, as well as in enhancing security in the country as a whole. To enhance national security, Kerry wants to implement tighter security measures at chemical plants and nuclear power facilities. He also wants to make revisions to the Patriot Act. George Bush as the incumbent is seen as the stronger candidate when it comes to terrorism and national security. However, John Kerry made significant gains in this area after the debates, despite the attacks led by the “Swift Boat Veterans for the Truth” group. Unlike the economy, which will stay relatively unchanged until after the election, the war on terrorism is extremely unpredictable, especially in Iraq. The deaths of US troops in Iraq after the end of major combat operations have hurt President Bush. George Bush still has the edge in this area, although that could change significantly if any major mishaps in Iraq occur before election day.

Pennsylvania as a state has been described as, “Philadelphia and Pittsburg, with Alabama in between.” Philadelphia represents the generally liberal attitudes of the northeast, while Pittsburg the more moderate aspects of the Midwest. The rest of the state is rural and conservative. These sections of the state represent a wide variety of social beliefs regarding ethics and morals. One hotly contested issue in this election is gay marriage. The conservative center of state opposes it, and many support amending the constitution to specify that marriage is between a man and a woman. The liberal urban areas however do not support such drastic measures, and feel gay couples should be allowed the same rights as married couples through civil unions. George Bush supports the Constitutional Amendment defining marriage. John Kerry opposes gay marriage, however supports civil unions. Abortion is another area of controversy. Like gay marriage, conservative voters oppose it, while liberals believe in a woman’s right to choose. George Bush wants to put stringent restrictions on partial birth abortions. John Kerry is pro-choice, despite publicly conceding that he believes life begins at conception. Another hot topic is stem cell research. George Bush’s initial proposal to fund 63 existing stem cell lines has since been cut down to 13 lies. John Kerry wants to expand research and development with stem cells. The death of long time stem cell advocate Christopher Reeves has sparked calls for reform, pressuring the government to fund embryonic stem cell lines. Pennsylvania’s divide between rural conservative values and urban progressive attitudes are a good representation of the diversity of the country regarding these issues. Historically, Pennsylvania has voted with the Democrats side on these issues, and current polls reinforce these notions. However, a high voter turnout in the conservative suburbs could change this balance and swing the state for the Republicans.

Pennsylvania isn’t called the Keystone State for nothing: its diverse mix of liberal and conservative voters makes it a key state for both candidates. Both political camps are campaigning down to the wire, and have truly shown that every vote counts. Regionally, President Bush is trying to appeal to the rural voters in the Pennsylvania “T”, an area that has conservative voting trends. John Kerry is focusing on the liberal metropolitan area of the state. Although the race between both candidates is very close, John Kerry has a stable yet slim lead. John Kerry has appealed to voters in the suburbs of Pennsylvania, which was originally thought to vote solidly Republican. Also, a surge of new voters could help the senator. Of the 85,000 newly registered voters, Democrats outnumber both Republicans and Independents 9 to 1. Pennsylvania has voted Democratically for the past three elections, and has picked the winner in the past six with the exception of 2000. Taking these facts into consideration, and how voters have reacted to both candidates stance’s on key issues, I predict Pennsylvania will go to John Kerry, who will win by less than 52% of the vote.